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Another set of primaries is upon us...

Election 2004 Primaries Democrats

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#1 Rov Judicata

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 03:15 PM

http://politicalwire...exit_polls.html

Quote

South Carolina: Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10

Oklahoma: Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28

Missouri: Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10

Delaware: Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

Arizona: Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13

<Note that these are exit polls, but those have been pretty good this year. However, if any of these are significiantly wrong, the whole picture can change rather easily.>

Shiny:
Kerry. This is, obviously, a commanding victory. Keep in mind that AZ and Missouri have the most delegates of any of these states.

Still Flyin':
Edwards. Taking SC was expected, but taking OK really keeps him in the race. If he sticks it out, he needs to do better in the debates. Period. He has more latent talent than Kerry in speechifying, but he's missed key oppurtunities in the debates, including the embarassing DOMA moment.
Dean: From frontrunner to maybe mustering 15% in two states. Ouch. However, if he's been fiscally conservative, he should have the money to stick it out a while longer. Getting new money, though, is going to be problematic.

Not so much::
Clark: Oklahoma was his stronghold. If he comes in third, big ouch. Edwards has the southern vote, Kerry has the military vote, and Dean has the outsider vote. Where does that leave Clark?
Lieberman: Sir, I have the utmost respect for you. With that being said.. please stop embarassing yourself.
Sharpton/Kucinich: I don't have much respect for either of you; however, it'd also be nice if you stopped embarassing yourself.

Anyway, it looks like Kerry and Edwards are the only two left really standing, and Edwards is in huge trouble. He needs to raise some money, fast. He's progressed extremely well in the past five months or so, but there's still a long way to go.

<Note: Analysis may be tainted by my shameless Edwards-partisanship>

<Note 2: Ranking system shamelessly stolen from Cardie>

Edited by Javert Rovinski, 03 February 2004 - 03:17 PM.

St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. § 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#2 Appreciate

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 03:27 PM

How'd you get this data so EARLY?

Are people calling these races with these numbers as the finals?

Kath
"Any dolt with half a brain/Can see that humankind has gone insane
To the point where I don't know if I'll upset the status quo
If I throw poison in the water main..."
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#3 Rov Judicata

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 03:30 PM

^

As noted, these are exit polls, courtesy of National Review Online.

Exit polls can be problematic, but I doubt they'll be off by more than 5 points in any significiant way. We'll see what the "official" results are tonight. The only real surprise is Edwards taking Oklahoma; since those show up as 31-29-28, that order could be totally shaken up. We'll see.

The data seems 'about right' though.
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. § 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#4 Rov Judicata

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 03:31 PM

Update: It looks like Liebarman is going to drop out if he doesn't win at least one state: http://www.mercuryne.../printstory.jsp

So much for Joementum....
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. § 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#5 Anna

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 03:32 PM

Javert Rovinski, on Feb 3 2004, 01:13 PM, said:

Dean: From frontrunner to maybe mustering 15% in two states. Ouch. However, if he's been fiscally conservative, he should have the money to stick it out a while longer. Getting new money, though, is going to be problematic.
I heard a comment on TV yesterday about Dean being out of money, and I was flabbergasted. He had $40 million! Anyway, I've been looking around the net and it appears that Dean only has around $5-$9 million left (depends on who you read), and has asked campaign staffers to hold off getting paychecks for two weeks.

YIKES!

Anna
Seldom do we regret words we do not speak.

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Amendment X: The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

#6 Rov Judicata

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 03:35 PM

RPITA, on Feb 3 2004, 01:30 PM, said:

I heard a comment on TV yesterday about Dean being out of money, and I was flabbergasted. He had $40 million! Anyway, I've been looking around the net and it appears that Dean only has around $5-$9 million left (depends on who you read), and has asked campaign staffers to hold off getting paychecks for two weeks.

YIKES!

Anna
Some rumours are saying that Dean is down to his last two million. (And typing that makes it sound funny, but that's not much).

Dean's problem isn't so much being out of money, it's that those who are 'true believers' have already given to him, and it's hard to convince anybody else that Dean stands a chance; nobody likes to give to a loser. Whatever he has, he has to husband it VERY carefully and concentrate it to get a big victory. His other strategy, as he outlined on meet the press-- to focus on delagates, rather than victories-- simply isn't going to work. It's all about the Benjamins.

<Also, not paying your campaign staffers is a mind-bogglingly bad idea, in general.>
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. § 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#7 Anna

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 03:45 PM

It's not that he's down to a few million, but I'm absolutely boggled that he can go through almost $40 million just through a few states' caucuses/primaries. The articles I read talked about him just about "going dark" on advertising right now before Super Tuesday. Doesn't sound like sound strategy to me, but what do I know?

If we don't come up with some sort of TRUE campaign finance scheme, I shudder to think how much it will really take to be President. Now and in the future. That it means only those who can afford to do it will, against who we NEED to be President. Pretty scarey to me...

Anna
Seldom do we regret words we do not speak.

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Amendment X: The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

#8 Nick

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 03:47 PM

^Rov, I'm with you on the rankings--tho if a 3rd contender manages to get through this alive, I'd say Clark has more chance than Dean at this point.  The screaming weasel's run out of gas. :)

R.I.P. Joe, Dennis & Al

-Nick

#9 Banapis

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 04:01 PM

RPITA, on Feb 3 2004, 08:43 PM, said:

The articles I read talked about him just about "going dark" on advertising right now before Super Tuesday. Doesn't sound like sound strategy to me, but what do I know?
Nope, not a sound strategy at all to be completely off the airwaves in today's primary states.  But he doesn't have enough money to compete in those states so he's taking what little he has left and is advetising in MI, WA, and WI where he thinks he's going to turn his campaign around.

I don't disagree with his strategy to go for a knockout with an undefeated start by wins in IA and NH (look what it's done for Kerry), however, you would think that somebody, somewhere, in his campaign organization would have suggested keeping some money in reserve just in case things don't work out as planned in IA and NH.

IMO, there's no excuse for his current financial crisis and it's not surprising that Dean decided his campaign staff needed some changes after NH.

Banapis

#10 Banapis

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 04:08 PM

^ And an addendum on Dean's "turnaround" strategy...

A Detroit News poll of MI voters released today shows:
Kerry: 56%
Dean: 13%
Edwards: 6%
Clark: 3%
Kucinich: 2%

Undecided: 19%

http://www.detnews.c.../a01e-54403.htm

Banapis

#11 Godeskian

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 04:15 PM

so Kerry is winning by quite a respectable margin,

but winning within his own party is one hting, i'm not familiar enough with american politics, nor the current mood in the US, but what is his actuall chance of beating Bush as it currently stands? (please note, i am looking for opinions here)

#12 Rov Judicata

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 04:19 PM

Maybe Nick... if we knew more for sure about Dean's finances, I'd feel better about making more certain predictions.

Gode-- There's really no way to know. While Kerry beats Bush comftorably in current polls, Bush has yet to even start campaigning, and he has scads of cash. Further, a month ago, people thought Kerry was doomed; now he looks insurmountable. There's just no way to tell which way the winds of fortune will take you. I think, though, that if Kerry wins we'll have a repeat of '96, where an incumbent wins despite being hated passionately by the opposition.
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. § 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#13 aphrael

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 04:30 PM

Godeskian, on Feb 3 2004, 03:13 PM, said:

so Kerry is winning by quite a respectable margin,

but winning within his own party is one hting, i'm not familiar enough with american politics, nor the current mood in the US, but what is his actuall chance of beating Bush as it currently stands? (please note, i am looking for opinions here)
According to a CNN, USAToday and Gallup Poll I saw on CNN yesterday, Kerry was the man.  The poll asked if the election were held today who would you vote for  

Kerry 53%
Bush 43%

First time thats happened.

#14 Banapis

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 04:37 PM

Godeskian, on Feb 3 2004, 09:13 PM, said:

so Kerry is winning by quite a respectable margin,

but winning within his own party is one hting, i'm not familiar enough with american politics, nor the current mood in the US, but what is his actuall chance of beating Bush as it currently stands? (please note, i am looking for opinions here)

According to a poll released today, Kerry would beat Bush 53% to 46%.

http://www.cnn.com/2...prez/index.html

However, until recently, Kerry was such an afterthought for the nomination that he hasn't come under the same scrutiny by the media previous front-runner Dean had to endure.  Since Kerry is basically an unknown to most Americans, what this number really represents is that 53% would rather have somebody other than Bush as President -- so Kerry in the minds of those polled is some sort of nebulous anti-Bush that they hope they could support.

However, if Kerry does get the nomination, he will then be staring down the Bush warchest, the most money ever raised for a political campaign in the history of God's creation, and every American in this country will become all too familiar with Kerry's numerous warts.  As American voters begin to define the contours of who Kerry is and what he stands for, many will undoubtedly decide they don't much care for him. If the best Kerry can do when he's a nebulous undefined anti-Bush is manage a 7% lead, then I would say the chances of him beating Bush are not so good.  That, and my personal opinion that John Kerry's record in public service reads like the goodie list for the candy to be used in a democrat donkey piņata at a Karl Rove birthday party, leads me to believe Bush would likely beat Kerry.

However, politics are very fluid.  There could be some event that turns American sentiment strongly against Bush to the point that they'd prefer Kerry when they go to the polls.

So the short answer is: tune in again in November. ;)

Banapis

Edited by Banapis, 03 February 2004 - 04:38 PM.


#15 Anna

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 04:45 PM

Banapis, on Feb 3 2004, 02:35 PM, said:

If the best Kerry can do when he's a nebulous undefined anti-Bush is manage a 7% lead, then I would say the chances of him beating Bush are not so good.  That, and my personal opinion that John Kerry's record in public service reads like the goodie list for the candy to be used in a democrat donkey piņata at a Karl Rove birthday party, leads me to believe Bush would likely beat Kerry.
Thank you, Banapis! That's the best laugh and mental image I've had in a while!

:cool:
Anna
Seldom do we regret words we do not speak.

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Amendment X: The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

#16 Cardie

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 07:22 PM

CNN has called Edwards as the winner in SC.  I did my part.  :)

Cardie
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#17 Nick

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 07:45 PM

Just over 15 minutes 'til the next set of polls close!! :D :D

[Edit: and :welldone: Edwards in SC! w00t! :welldone:]

-Nick

Edited by Nick, 03 February 2004 - 07:47 PM.


#18 Rov Judicata

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 07:52 PM

Good work South Carolina, and thank you Cardie. :D.

*curses Arizona yet again for having closed primaries. :glare:*

Let's see how this shapes up :D
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. § 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#19 MuseZack

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 07:58 PM

But can you feel the Joe-mentum?








Can you?



Yeah, me neither. :devil:
"Some day, after we have mastered the wind, the waves, the tides, and gravity,
We shall harness for God the energies of Love.
Then, for the second time in the history of the world,
we will have discovered fire."
--Father Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

#20 Nick

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Posted 03 February 2004 - 08:05 PM

Javert Rovinski, on Feb 3 2004, 07:50 PM, said:

Good work South Carolina, and thank you Cardie. :D.

*curses Arizona yet again for having closed primaries. :glare:*

Let's see how this shapes up :D
Rov! Why didn't you just change your party affiliation for the primaries!? It's not like you can't just change 'em, then change 'em right back!  (exactly what I'm doing since Florida has closed primaries as well, and often elections down here are determined largely by the Republican primary, hence I'm usually registered Republican. :devil:)

;)

-Nick



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