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US economy has surprising job growth

Economy Job growth 2004

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#1 Rov Judicata

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 10:11 AM

http://www.cbc.ca/st...ployment_040402

Holy cow!

Quote

WASHINGTON - The United States economy added 308,000 jobs in March for the biggest one-month gain in four years, the U.S. government reported Friday.

The employment gains easily beat the forecasts of Wall Street economists, who had been expecting the addition of about 120,000 new jobs.

It could be a fluke, or we really could be turning a corner.  I sincerely hope that the job market is solid, both for the inheret good it does, and so that the people can focus on who will best deal with national security. Here's hoping the numbers pan out. :).

:cool:.

EDIT: Oh, and just to show how useless the unemployment rate is:

Quote

The U.S. Labour Department said the jobless rate rose to 5.7 per cent from the two-year low of 5.6 per cent seen in January and February. The unemployment rate rose despite the job growth as more people searched for work.

Edited by Javert Rovinski, 02 April 2004 - 10:19 AM.

St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

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#2 HubcapDave

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 01:15 PM

Who wants to bet that John Kerry and friends shift gears from "jobs lost" to "unemployment went up" as their favorite Bush-Bashing tool? ;)

#3 prolog

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 01:29 PM

OMG

JOHN KERRY SERVING WAFFLES

ITS BECAUSE HE WAFFLES, AM I RIGHT?!

Jesus.  Using "waffling" as an adjective and source for retarded jokes for politicians was old and tired when it was applied to Wilfred Laurier about the Boer war.

#4 HubcapDave

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 01:32 PM

prolog, on Apr 2 2004, 11:27 AM, said:

OMG

JOHN KERRY SERVING WAFFLES

ITS BECAUSE HE WAFFLES, AM I RIGHT?!

Jesus.  Using "waffling" as an adjective and source for retarded jokes for politicians was old and tired when it was applied to Wilfred Laurier about the Boer war.
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#5 Rhys

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 03:51 PM

OK, now I have the urge to cook up some waffles... :p

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#6 HubcapDave

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 03:59 PM

Rhys, on Apr 2 2004, 01:49 PM, said:

OK, now I have the urge to cook up some waffles... :p

Rhys
Yeah, but no one cooks 'em up like Kerry!

Back on topic, I also heard that the new job figures for Jan and Feb were also revised upward as well.

Looks like Kerry and Co. definitely will have to find a new bat to bash Bush with.

#7 gadfly

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 04:23 PM

Quote

The United States economy added 308,000 jobs in March for the biggest one-month gain in four years

What kinds of jobs?  And yes, it matters.  A large portion of the unemployed were laid off from tech companies.  Are the job openings comparable?  As someone who was laid off for 6 months from a tech company I can certainly tell you that it does make a big difference.  There were and are tons of job openings but they are in low paying, low-level, little room for advancement type jobs.  Hardly a replacement for the millions of tech workers who were/are laid off.  This is another fine example of how useless statistics can be when used inappropriately.

Quote

The long-suffering U.S. manufacturing sector ended 44 months of job losses, but factories didn't add any new positions, the Labor Department said. Only the information services sector shed jobs last month as about 1,000 positions were lost.

The big winner was the service sector, where 230,000 jobs were added, including 47,000 in retail trade, 42,000 in business services, and 39,000 positions in education and health.

I found the above quote particularly interesting.  Yes, this report may boost stocks in the present but I doubt it will have much long term impact.

Edited by gadfly, 02 April 2004 - 04:26 PM.


#8 Kosh

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 05:02 PM

^And where are the jobs? Wendy's in Boston pays like 10 dollars an hour, Wendy's in West Virginia pays minimum wage.
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#9 Rov Judicata

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 05:26 PM

^

But "The jobs we're getting aren't good enough" is a huge improvement over "There are no jobs". Give it time. Things are finally getting on the right track, I think. :).
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#10 StarDust

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Posted 02 April 2004 - 06:10 PM

I have to say I've been wondering when this was going to happen.  

I have my resume up in a few places, always good to have the options open.  I've noticed a major increase in inquiries.  

Also, everyone I know is now employeed professionally, which is a major change.  Although most are making less money.

Things aren't great, and they'll never be like 1999 (reminds me of the Prince song). But they are definitely getting better.

On an aside, and I don't know if it's true or not.  I heard from someone that India is doing so well with the job outsourcing that they are getting expensive now and the companies that handle outsourcing there are in fact starting to outsource themselves to China, where it's still cheap.    :upside:

#11 Delvo

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Posted 03 April 2004 - 03:16 AM

gadfly, on Apr 2 2004, 03:21 PM, said:

What kinds of jobs?  And yes, it matters.  A large portion of the unemployed were laid off from tech companies.  Are the job openings comparable?
Actually, I saw a survey of internet-related jobs that the guy in charge said were not "seen" by normal job surveys, which thus would not be a part of the data we're dealing with here. Thus, many of the "lost jobs" were actually "jobs that took a form that our surveying methods don't pick up". It makes sense, when you consider what the two standard methods of counting jobs are. One was a corporate survey and one was a household survey. And for months, Democrats have been pointing out the numbers from corporate surveys because those were lower, while Republicans have been utterly failing to point out that the household surveys were showing lots more people with jobs even if it wasn't clear where all of these people worked. Statisticians were trying to sort out the apparent conflict over how people at home could have jobs when the corporations didn't have employees. High self-employment was one proposed answer. Another was that the corporate survey was just not so good at picking up on employment by smaller companies and/or newer ones... which goes along with the self-employment idea, if you figure that the self-employing entrepeneurs hire at least a few other people apiece. And this computer guy I saw a few days ago was saying that another completely unrelated factor contributing to the descrepancy was computer companies who do so much stuff online that they just don't appear in most ways that corporate activity is detected. (And this doesn't just mean the retailers most of the public is familiar with and thinks of when they think of online business.)

Again, it fits what you'd expect; after the bubble of overinvestment in ∙Com companies burst, it makes sense that internet ventures were then undervalued and would have another rise just to get back where they belonged, and there were other lines of evidence that that was happening lately anyway, like the competetive trend between online and offline retail sales for the last year. So it looks like a major part of this trend in employment is a matter of the "internet economy" finding its real place in the overall economy.

#12 Uncle Sid

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Posted 03 April 2004 - 03:51 AM

I might be strange, but I work in the information sector, I've been employed straight through the recession, decided to look for a new job about a year ago, stuck my resume up on Monster.com and waited for people to call me.  I've had well over a hundred calls, 6 or 8 interviews and four job offers that I turned down.  Many of the calls that I got I just didn't go forward with because I didn't like what they were paying up front.  

Let's be clear though, many of the jobs that I actually laughed off were $45/hr contract jobs and $70K salary full time.  The ones I considered but refused the offers were in the 80-85K range.  And now, I've finally decided to make the move after finding a position that is much better than those.

Oh, and I'm a just a systems administrator, although I prefer to call myself a systems engineer, with going on 8 years of experience  :).  I have no degree in IT, only basic computer science course work on a college level and no certifications at all.  I also don't really know anyone on the inside anywhere.  I do like to think I'm really smart, and more importantly, willing to work hard and to make a quality product.

The reason that people got laid off in huge gobs during the recession is because there were frankly a glut of developers that were supported on the top of a huge bubble.  They were in it for the money and they really had few skills.  Once the money dried up, the companies decided to do what they should have done and downsize and economize.  

There is this idea that there is this huge number of educated, talented IT professionals out there who are unemployed or underemployed and not filling jobs that they should have.  That's not true.  Many of these professionals are not talented, barely educated and the fact is that the jobs never really existed in the first place.  There are scads of people straight out of completely unrelated fields who thought that with a certification gained after a cram session in a training center that they were suddenly engineers and developers and could suddenly command lordly rates because they took one test.  Some barely knew how to use their workstations, let alone how to work servers.  I know, I work(ed) with these people every day.

That's not to say that there aren't jobs out there, because I'm living proof that there are, and really good ones, if you have the luxury of setting a goal and being willing to turn down lesser oppotunities until the right one comes in.  However, I know few real sys admins who know real enterprise systems who would starve.  If I was fired today, I could probably find a job in two weeks for 80% of what I make now.  No sweat.  It wouldn't be the best job in the universe, but I'd hardly be poverty stricken.

Edited by Uncle Sid, 03 April 2004 - 03:59 AM.

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#13 Delvo

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Posted 03 April 2004 - 04:07 AM

Ya, I think one of the basic characteristics of a "bubble" is the people who go into that field thinking it'll be a free easy ride to money and then, when they can't be supported anymore, act like either putting in some real effort or having to find another field of work is beneath them.

#14 tennyson

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Posted 03 April 2004 - 04:23 AM

I have to statistics but I have two friends and a third guy I know who were affected by the" bubble" although this is WV and tech jobs were few and far between. My friends both had bachelor's degrees in computer science while I think the other guy might have been a computer engineering or CS or both since he knows hardware better then the CS majors I knew. But both my friends ended up getting jobs beneath thier supposed skillset in telemarketing and both now have no job while the other guy was working with a computer firm before being laidoff a whileback(long enough for his unemployment to be nearing running out) and is still looking for a job.
But I really don't have the kind of knowledge needed to judge the larger situation beyond my state.
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#15 HubcapDave

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Posted 03 April 2004 - 08:46 PM

Remember when I said this?

Quote

Who wants to bet that John Kerry and friends shift gears from "jobs lost" to "unemployment went up" as their favorite Bush-Bashing tool?

Well, I got the "and friends" part right!

http://story.news.ya...d=694&ncid=2043

Quote

Other Democrats noted that the unemployment rate inched up one-tenth of a point to 5.7 percent in March. That rise in the jobless rate reflected the larger number of people who started looking for work again but failed to find jobs.

"Only in the Bush `economic recovery' can our country gain jobs and increase the unemployment rate in the same month," said Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J.

Kerry instead took a different route, he pared back on the criticism.

Quote

And, for the first time in 44 months, the nation's factories did not shed jobs. But they didn't add them either, and Kerry ? chosen to deliver the Democratic response to Bush's address ? seized on that.

"We now hear the administration claiming success," said Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. "There is not a single month of this administration that has seen the creation of a single manufacturing job."

So, let's see.......economy is bad, Dems carp on Bush about it. Country shows economic growth, Dems say that it's a "jobless recovery". We start adding jobs again, Dems say "Well, they're not the right kind of jobs...." :rolleyes:

Wonder what their fallback position is if manufacturing jobs increase?

Not that the president has any control of job creation to begin with!


By the way, how is Kerry going to "make" 10 million jobs? Is he going to build a job making factory somewhere?

Edited by HubcapDave, 03 April 2004 - 08:46 PM.


#16 Nick

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Posted 03 April 2004 - 09:14 PM

The unemployment rate, CPI, stock market indices, Debt-to-Equity ratios, and virtually every number on corporate financial statements are effectively meaningless.  

I especially dislike the unemployment rate--since if the survey takers call you, and you tell them that you're unemployed but not spending much effort looking for work . . . then you don't count as part of the "unemployment rate".

I don't recall when exactly, but some months ago, didn't the opposite happen?  The number of jobs declined but so did the unemployment rate--the explanation was that some people just got so frustrated looking for work that they stopped searching.

*shrugs*

-Nick

#17 Anastashia

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Posted 03 April 2004 - 09:58 PM

Nick, on Apr 3 2004, 09:12 PM, said:

The unemployment rate, CPI, stock market indices, Debt-to-Equity ratios, and virtually every number on corporate financial statements are effectively meaningless. 

I especially dislike the unemployment rate--since if the survey takers call you, and you tell them that you're unemployed but not spending much effort looking for work . . . then you don't count as part of the "unemployment rate".

I don't recall when exactly, but some months ago, didn't the opposite happen?  The number of jobs declined but so did the unemployment rate--the explanation was that some people just got so frustrated looking for work that they stopped searching.

*shrugs*

-Nick
Actually Nick it's a bit more complex than that, I worked for the Census Bureau doing that survey for several years on a part time basis. For one thing those households are followed for a period of three months for two consecutive years, it's not one call and you're never contacted again.

However your overall position, those who are not actively looking for work are not counted in the unemployment numbers, is correct.

With regard to self employment and the internet economy I totally believe that's the trend and I'm going with it. I'm a business owner with a company that provides a system of residual income opportunity using the internet economy.

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