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Kerry Ascending...

Election 2004 John Kerry 2004

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#1 Rov Judicata

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:19 PM

I have to admit,  I bought into the conventional wisdom that the Democrats would have an extremely difficult time winning in 2004, and that Kerry was simply an awful candidate.

Kerry IS an awful candidate, but-- luckily for him-- so is Bush. He seems to be holding his own:

First, the president is down to 46/46 favourability/unfavourability.

Kerry is considering delaying accepting the nomination to gain an advantage over Bush, due to this country's truly bizarre election laws. <Both candidates are still, technically, campaigning for the candidacy. They won't begin campaigning for the actual presidency until they accept the candidacy at the nomination, and then the government writes them a huge check. However, once they have that check, they can't spend or raise money from other sources. As it stands, Bush will accept the nomination much later than Kerry>

Kerry raised twice what Bush did in April. Kerry is still lagging behind financially, but won't be nearly as crippled as previously thought.

Same link as above, Bush spent 31 million last month, and all he has to show for it is  being tied with or trailing Kerry in every scientific poll released.

The election is still months away, but Bush is looking significantly more vulnerable than he was even a month ago. Stay tuned.
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#2 MuseZack

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:26 PM

Those Kerry bio ads seem to have brought up his positives in the battleground states as well.

And while the incumbency brings with it obvious advantages and I wouldn't bet against Karl Rove, the fact that Bush has so far spent 128 million dollars (!) on his reelection campaign and barely fought himself to a draw with Kerry is simply astonishing.
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#3 Rov Judicata

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 09:35 PM

I agree Zack. Bush has also had supernaturally bad luck as of late.

The moment the economy starts to surge, Iraq turns to the worse and blots out the message. If Iraq improves, there's still gas prices and healthcare which are polling hot.

Also, look at this detailed polling report

The only specific issues Bush has an advantage on are War on Terror and Moral Values (whatever the hell that means), and those are narrow. Conversely, Kerry has double digit leads in healthcare, the environment, the deficit, and the economy.

Bizzarely, Bush and Kerry are tied for "friendly and likeable person". Now, I may end up voting for Kerry, but he has a HUGE gap in "friendly" and "likeable" where I sit. This isn't just a case of Bush getting hurt; Kerry is building himself up, and it probably is those bio ads.

I love American politics.
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#4 Delvo

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 10:17 PM

Several of the points raised in the polls you're looking at contradict points in other recent polls; in fact I can think of at least one polling contradiction I've seen within the last week on almost every major point. There seem to be only two things that there's no disputing about:
1. Bush's loss is not Kerry's gain; he goes down to Kerry's level but Kerry doesn't move up to Bush's, or even really move at all. Their "movements" are detached instead of counterpart/complementary.
2. This is such a weird election so far that there's no sure pattern to use as a basis for predictions or comparisons. You could just as validly make a case that Kerry should be far ahead as you could make one that Bush should be, depending on which standard common-knowledge rule of Presidential elections you choose to follow, because the normal rules just aren't working.

#5 G1223

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Posted 21 May 2004 - 10:39 PM

Kerry has positivie features? I am not kidding. He waffles on National Defense and it has been shown. He seems to say I would have gotten France and germany to join us in Iraq, or I would have waited till they allowed us to make the attacks.  But that is what turns middle of road people off. We are seeing that as appeasing and pandering to the guys making money off the Oil for Cash that the UN was the middle man for.

The word is I"d have done it differently" and he will not explain clearly what "Differently" means
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#6 Rhea

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Posted 22 May 2004 - 01:07 PM

Javert Rovinski, on May 21 2004, 06:33 PM, said:

I agree Zack. Bush has also had supernaturally bad luck as of late.

The moment the economy starts to surge, Iraq turns to the worse and blots out the message. If Iraq improves, there's still gas prices and healthcare which are polling hot.
I disagree. I think that it's reaping what he's sown. I consider Bush to be the most makes major decisions based on body language and ignores the facts.  :wacko:

Bush had Colin Powell is a resource. He didn't use him, and look at the monumental screwup the war in Iraq has become. Rumsfeld is a huge liability, but Bush is glued to him like a barnacle.

I think he's a man of mediocre intellect (which is not a good thing in a President), and all his stupidity is coming home to roost.

If anything, I think Bush will go down in history as a man who placed all his eggs in the wrong basket as a way of life.
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