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The real Kerry bounce

Election 2004 John Kerry Zogby Poll

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#1 Rov Judicata

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 09:04 AM

http://electoral-vote.com/ is an invaluable resource, because it gives more meaningful numbers than national polls do. As you'll all recall, it's electoral votes that matter, not the popular vote.

Zogby released polls in all the battleground states today.

The results:

Quote

Kerry 328   Bush 210

Or, according to the Wall Street Journal:

Quote

318 to 220

In any case, Kerry has a huge lead in the electoral college. Comparatively, he was at around 290 before the convention.

Kerry received a huge bounce... 30 to 40 electoral votes is no small matter. I'd still rather be in Bush's shoes (he has more tools and a better campaign staff), but Kerry is definitely a contender.

The other thing is how many states are within the margin of error.:

Arizona (10)
Oregon (7)
New Mexico (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Iowa (7)
Missouri (11)
Tennessee (11)
West Virginia (5)
Maine (5)
Florida (27)
Arkansas (6)
Nevada (5)

Edited by Javert Rovinski, 03 August 2004 - 09:10 AM.

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#2 Anna

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 09:21 AM

Javert Rovinski, on Aug 3 2004, 08:02 AM, said:

The other thing is how many states are within the margin of error.
109 electoral votes within the margin of error. Which effectively means this race is still neck and neck.

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#3 Drew

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 09:59 AM

Anna, on Aug 3 2004, 09:19 AM, said:

Javert Rovinski, on Aug 3 2004, 08:02 AM, said:

The other thing is how many states are within the margin of error.
109 electoral votes within the margin of error. Which effectively means this race is still neck and neck.
Which means that Zogby is essentially shilling for Kerry by calling the race for Kerry with that kind of margin of error. Geez. Could the left be more transparent?
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#4 Cardie

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 10:02 AM

I think if Kerry should win, we might well have the reverse of 2000, with Bush winning the popular vote.  The electoral math has always been that it the Democrats can hold on to the states they won in 2000 (which was always fewer states, just the big population centers like NY, CA, PA, etc), they only needed to "turn" one big state the Republicans had.  Heck, Al Gore could have won if he'd concentrated on securing his home state instead of spending all that time trying to get the state where his rival's brother had won a statewide election!

I think this election all boils down to Ohio.  DWF, you have power!

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#5 Kosh

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 10:49 AM

Drew, on Aug 3 2004, 09:57 AM, said:

Anna, on Aug 3 2004, 09:19 AM, said:

Javert Rovinski, on Aug 3 2004, 08:02 AM, said:

The other thing is how many states are within the margin of error.
109 electoral votes within the margin of error. Which effectively means this race is still neck and neck.
Which means that Zogby is essentially shilling for Kerry by calling the race for Kerry with that kind of margin of error. Geez. Could the left be more transparent?
I didn't see anything on the site that called the race for Kerry. He seems to be saying it's still neck and neck. He predicts that the bounce Kerry got in the college will even out after the Republican convention.

I'd hardly call that shilling for anyone.
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#6 Nick

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 10:54 AM

Drew, on Aug 3 2004, 10:57 AM, said:

Anna, on Aug 3 2004, 09:19 AM, said:

Javert Rovinski, on Aug 3 2004, 08:02 AM, said:

The other thing is how many states are within the margin of error.
109 electoral votes within the margin of error. Which effectively means this race is still neck and neck.
Which means that Zogby is essentially shilling for Kerry by calling the race for Kerry with that kind of margin of error. Geez. Could the left be more transparent?
^I disagree.  Even if we ignore the "barely" states alltogether, Kerry is still leading by 32 electoral votes.  And I personally believe that Kerry's going to get Florida.  This is going to be the fallout from the last presidential election--we're going to see a historically high voter turnout in this state . . . I also question the poll's accuracy in giving Nader a full 2% . . .That's more than last election, and he's lost some fans since then.

If the election were to happen tomorrow, I have little doubt that Kerry would win.  As for what's going to happen in November . . . it's anybody's guess.  These two candidates are going to swap places several more times until November, and it's going to boil down to whoever has that teeensy narrow lead before the polls open.

Although I think that everyone pretty much agrees that this election is going to be yet another super-narrow margin, down-to-the-wire event.  Whoever wins will do so just barely.

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#7 Ogami

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 12:12 PM

Javert wrote:

As you'll all recall, it's electoral votes that matter, not the popular vote

At last, someone recognizes where the struggle lies!

Gore lost in 2000 not because of the Supreme Court, but because his campaign stops were big cities, major urban centers where he already had the vote locked up.

Bush, on the other hand, campaigned in fly-over country, small towns and places that Gore skipped. Bush got the rural vote, as has been seen in that famous USA Today blue-red map breakdown by county.

Thanks to that campaigning, Bush got the electoral votes he needed to win. Too late, the Gore team decided to contest the election in Florida, when they had already lost the war.

Any Democrat candidate in 2004 would do well not to ignore Gore's mistake. Kerry must reach out and appeal to the rural voter, and not just the big city voting block that Gore courted.

I really don't see how Kerry could appeal to rural voters, but at least he's trying. Good for him.

-Ogami

#8 Kosh

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 03:30 PM

Quote

I really don't see how Kerry could appeal to rural voters, but at least he's trying. Good for him.

-Ogami


Both side ignored West Virginia last time. Bush has been here at least four times now, as president, and Kerry has been here three times campaigning. We only have the five votes, but they are both contending for them. I think the real battle ground will be Ohio, as Rov said.
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#9 Anna

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 03:31 PM

After giving this some more thought, it is my opinion that all of these numbers are meaningless until after the Republican convention. We'll see what the numbers say when both sides "stuff" starts hitting the fan.

It ain't gonna be pretty, no matter which side you're sitting on... :(

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#10 DWF

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 03:39 PM

Cardie, on Aug 3 2004, 11:00 AM, said:

I think this election all boils down to Ohio.  DWF, you have power!

Cardie
Well, we've certainly been alot of Bush and Kerry, I get the impression that, Bush might not be all that well liked in Columbus, after the hwol Buckeye Steel Casting thing. ;)

I think the major thing will be, just getting out to vote. ;)
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#11 Rov Judicata

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 03:47 PM

Kosh, on Aug 3 2004, 01:28 PM, said:

Both side ignored West Virginia last time. Bush has been here at least four times now, as president, and Kerry has been here three times campaigning. We only have the five votes, but they are both contending for them. I think the real battle ground will be Ohio, as Rov said.
I'm flattered to be mistaken for her, but that was actually Cardie. :cool:. Not that I disagree with her analysis...

Quote

109 electoral votes within the margin of error. Which effectively means this race is still neck and neck.

Anna

True, but Kerry has been gradually rising. If it were held today, I have no doubt that Kerry would win. We'll see what happens next. Bush is starting to strike back. The anticipation is a blitz in August, and then there's the convention in mid-September.

Quote

I didn't see anything on the site that called the race for Kerry. He seems to be saying it's still neck and neck. He predicts that the bounce Kerry got in the college will even out after the Republican convention.

I'd hardly call that shilling for anyone.

This is made by somebody independent, not Zogby. Drew is referring to this: http://www.zogby.com/news/051004.html

Quote

Ogami: Thanks to that campaigning, Bush got the electoral votes he needed to win. Too late, the Gore team decided to contest the election in Florida, when they had already lost the war.

While the 2000 election narrative is complex, you have a point. People who say that "Gore won the popular vote!" overlook the fact that both candidates would have acted differently if they were TRYING to win the popular vote.

Anna-- I agree that these polls are largely meaningless. Ever since Dean was anointed the Democratic candidate by the media, this election has been one incident after another proving how often the conventional wisdom is simply wrong....
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. § 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#12 Anna

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 04:31 PM

Javert Rovinski, on Aug 3 2004, 02:45 PM, said:

Anna-- I agree that these polls are largely meaningless. Ever since Dean was anointed the Democratic candidate by the media, this election has been one incident after another proving how often the conventional wisdom is simply wrong....
And I think this whole election will be a case of trying to figure out the "new" conventional wisdom. I think the last election changed everything on the political landscape.

But, then again, I think change is good! I suspect they'll be talking about this election for a long, long time. And then they'll learn nothing from it. Cynic? Me? Why would you say that?? :hehe:

Anna

Edited by Anna, 03 August 2004 - 04:32 PM.

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#13 Bad Wolf

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 05:12 PM

Ogami, on Aug 3 2004, 10:10 AM, said:

Any Democrat candidate in 2004 would do well not to ignore Gore's mistake. Kerry must reach out and appeal to the rural voter, and not just the big city voting block that Gore courted.

I really don't see how Kerry could appeal to rural voters, but at least he's trying. Good for him.

-Ogami
Well said Ogami.  If one looks at a map of the country color coded to indicate which states Bush won electoral votes for it shows that Gore was a dismal failure in most of the more rural states.  This is indicative of what is wrong with the Democratic Party:  a failure/inability to appeal to people on a grass roots level.

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#14 Delvo

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 05:27 PM

A county-by-county map shows the pattern even more strongly: some of the blue states are actually red with a few blue specks.

#15 Godeskian

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 05:43 PM

is there a link to this map? I'd like to see it.

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#16 Ogami

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 05:55 PM

Here's the USA Today county by county map of the 2000 election:

http://www.esri.com/...s/p15p1_600.gif

Here's the archive article referencing it:
http://www.esri.com/...html#thearticle

-Ogami

#17 Godeskian

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 05:55 PM

thankies :) is there a predicted one for the curent election?

Edited by Cyberhippie, 03 August 2004 - 05:56 PM.

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#18 Bad Wolf

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 07:03 PM

Delvo, on Aug 3 2004, 03:25 PM, said:

A county-by-county map shows the pattern even more strongly: some of the blue states are actually red with a few blue specks.
It's quite staggering actually to see how concentrated but not widespread the pockets of support for the Democratic party really were in the last election.
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#19 Palisades

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 07:43 PM

Very interesting map, Ogami. Thanks for the link.
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#20 Nick

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Posted 03 August 2004 - 08:22 PM

What's even more interesting--a big arguement in favor of the electoral college is that it helps prevent the big cities from dominating an election, giving rural areas more weight . . . but it appears to have the opposite effect--letting cities carry their entire high-electoral vote states.

-Nick



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