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Dangerous Hurricane Frances

Natural Disasters Hurricane Frances 2004

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#1 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:06 PM

Hurricane Frances is a cagetory 4 storm-sustained winds of 140 mph, with gusts to 165 mph.

Learn more here:

http://www.weatherun...00406_wind.html

Folks along the Southeast Coast had better keep their eyes peeled.

:eek4:  :(  :eek4:

Edited by Digital Man, 01 September 2004 - 06:38 PM.

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#2 Shalamar

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:07 PM

Every one there keep safe, and if they say get out, do so!
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#3 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:09 PM

Shalamar, on Sep 1 2004, 06:05 PM, said:

Every one there keep safe, and if they say get out, do so!
High Winds, storm surge, and isolated tornadoes are not fun. :(
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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#4 Cardie

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:31 PM

Right now their best guess is the eastern shore of central Florida some time on Saturday.  But the storm is so big that the entire southeast is likely to be affected.  I'm spending Labor Day weekend in Atlanta and just hope I can get back to SC unimpeded on Monday afternoon.

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#5 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:35 PM

Maybe this thread should be "stickied" near the top so everyone can see it first? Lives *are* at stake here, and  this storm could be the Big One.

:(
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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

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#6 Shalamar

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:37 PM

Believe me, living in Houston, I know.  

That most of Florida is so low lying scares the heck out of me. I've read first hand accounts of those who lived through the 1900 hurricane that litterally caused Galveston Island to disappear beneath the waves for a time and caused some 8,000 to 10,000 deaths.  My grandmother, born  four years later has stories passed on to her by her parents that are truly horriffic.
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#7 Shalamar

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:40 PM

DM, stickies often seem to be over looked.  I think a regular update posting will keep it at or near the top.

I know that I am certainly going to keep a 'weather eye' on Frances, and hopefully any EIer's with updates will post them.

and, sigh, they said this would be an unusually active season...
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#8 Ro-Astarte

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:41 PM

I've read about the Galveston hurricane of 1900, too. It's no joke what these storms can do.

I hadn't heard that Frances was a Cat 4. Yikes.  Batten down the hatches, y'all.

Ro

#9 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:42 PM

Shalamar, on Sep 1 2004, 06:35 PM, said:

Believe me, living in Houston, I know. 

That most of Florida is so low lying scares the heck out of me. I've read first hand accounts of those who lived through the 1900 hurricane that litterally caused Galveston Island to disappear beneath the waves for a time and caused some 8,000 to 10,000 deaths.  My grandmother, born  four years later has stories passed on to her by her parents that are truly horriffic.
My aunt, who recently moved down to Florida, dodged Hurricane Charley which killed around 20 people down there less than a month ago. And now, this. :(

Talk about a one-two punch.  :wacko:

Weather eye to the sky, indeed.

:whatsthat:

Edited by Digital Man, 01 September 2004 - 09:49 PM.

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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#10 Shalamar

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:43 PM

And the longer she stays at sea, the more power she will have.  It's hitting land that saps the energy.  If she's moving slowly enough as to not hit till Sat...whooooooooo, not good.
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#11 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:47 PM

Shalamar, on Sep 1 2004, 06:38 PM, said:

DM, stickies often seem to be over looked.  I think a regular update posting will keep it at or near the top.

I know that I am certainly going to keep a 'weather eye' on Frances, and hopefully any EIer's with updates will post them.

and, sigh, they said this would be an unusually active season...
Water temperatures are unusually high-90-95 degrees Fahrenheit. This is helping to fuel the thunderstorms that make up these hurricanes. The western Pacific has had its share of typhoons, too.

:suspect:
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"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#12 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:50 PM

Shalamar, on Sep 1 2004, 06:41 PM, said:

And the longer she stays at sea, the more power she will have.  It's hitting land that saps the energy.  If she's moving slowly enough as to not hit till Sat...whooooooooo, not good.
Not good, indeed. :(

Wasn't Andrew a category 5? And the question is-will Frances be more vicious than Andrew? With winds gusting over 165 mph, there is certainly cause for worry.

Edited by Digital Man, 01 September 2004 - 06:51 PM.

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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#13 Shalamar

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 07:16 PM

One of the things I'd compare, besides wind speed, is the pressure. The lower it goes the stronger the storm will be.

I beleive I remember something about this being an el nino year...

Quote

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP 
August 5, 2004
Synopsis: El Nio conditions are expected to develop during the next 3 months.

Sea surface temperature anomalies increased substantially in the central equatorial Pacific (Nio 3.4 region, Fig. 1) during July 2004, while anomalies greater than +0.5C persisted in the Nio 4 region. The recent increase and eastward expansion of positive SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific indicate the possible early stages of a warm episode. SST anomalies greater than +0.5C (~1F) were found between 160E and 120W, with anomalies greater than +1C extending from 180W eastward to 125W (Fig. 2). In spite of the anomalous warmth in the central equatorial Pacific during July, there appears to be little or no reflection of that warmth in the pattern of deep convection (precipitation) over the region (Fig. 3).

Thats whats driving those out in the Pacific...oh the irony of an ocean being named that

and this is an excellent site for overall hurricane information.

Hurricane on line -hurricane studies at the Univ. of Ill

yes Frances could go catagory 5 easily I think...shudder

Edited by Shalamar, 01 September 2004 - 07:18 PM.

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#14 Cardie

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 07:30 PM

Poor Nick was just getting his cable modem back, and I think this one is heading for his vicinity.  If you can read this, Nick, let us know if you have to evacuate.

Cardie
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#15 Shoshana

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 07:42 PM

Andrew, while moved up to a CAT V later, was a much much more compact storm than Frances. Frances is a strong 4 and big enough to cause havoc to both the east and west coasts of Florida. At the same time.

My Aunt is in Coconut Creek which is a small community in SE FL NW of Ft Lauderdale. At this point, they're evacuating people in her county that are east of I95 to shelters in her town. She's in a high rise, so I'm telling my cousin to tell her NOT to try riding it out in the condo if it heads that way - highrises get higher windspeeds.

The latest projections have Frances hitting the east coast, riding the center of Fl all the way up to Nashville/Atlanta.

They coould be wrong tho. Still a very small chance it will cross FL into the Gulf of Mexico and hit Mobile/Fl panhandle.

A few still think Charleston SC could get hit...

A cool pic if the current NWC forcast path and accompanying winds is attached. It's from http://flhurricane.c...e=&fpart=1&vc=1 I don't want to link directly to the pic because they're being hammered with stressed out Floridians and are running out of bandwidth.

Edited by Shoshana, 01 September 2004 - 07:45 PM.


#16 Chipper

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 08:10 PM

Also considering the unpredictable storm path right now...

if it stay so the coast the damage will be even worse due to storm surge, etc..
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#17 Ro-Astarte

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 08:17 PM

Quote

Frances is a strong 4 and big enough to cause havoc to both the east and west coasts of Florida. At the same time.

Ye gods and little fishes.  What a season.

Ro

#18 Cardie

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 08:25 PM

Shoshana, on Sep 1 2004, 08:40 PM, said:

The latest projections have Frances hitting the east coast, riding the center of Fl all the way up to Nashville/Atlanta.
And here I thought I was so clever being in Atlanta on storm weekend.  :o

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#19 Shoshana

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 08:37 PM

Well... it's hard to be clever with a storm this big. A couple of days ago the computer mofels were all over the place - land fall was everthing from New Orleans to having Frances spin back out to sea. But the majority have always said Florida - but where in Florida changes all the time. The 'official' statements are one thing, but the intermediate and interpreted model results have been sliding landfall from Miami to the GA border! And back.

Edited by Shoshana, 01 September 2004 - 08:38 PM.


#20 Ogami

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 09:16 PM

We prepare to evacuate, perhaps to visit West Palm Beach if the present course holds. This hurricane has the potential to wipe out both my home and my place of employment, but I find it all fascinating.

I'll check in after it passes, assuming we have power.

-Ogami





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