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Dangerous Hurricane Frances

Natural Disasters Hurricane Frances 2004

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#21 Cardie

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 09:20 PM

Where are you located Ogami?  I thought West Palm was being evacuated , too.  Be safe.

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#22 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 09:34 PM

Ro-Astarte, on Sep 1 2004, 08:15 PM, said:

Quote

Frances is a strong 4 and big enough to cause havoc to both the east and west coasts of Florida. At the same time.

Ye gods and little fishes.  What a season.

Ro
Any waterspouts that form from this will cause it to RAIN little & big fishes.

:eek:  :Oo:  :eek:

Edited by Digital Man, 01 September 2004 - 09:35 PM.

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#23 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 09:37 PM

Ogami, on Sep 1 2004, 09:14 PM, said:

We prepare to evacuate, perhaps to visit West Palm Beach if the present course holds. This hurricane has the potential to wipe out both my home and my place of employment, but I find it all fascinating.

I'll check in after it passes, assuming we have power.

-Ogami
The best of luck to you, Ogami. That's a rough situation to be in . :pout:
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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#24 Shoshana

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 09:37 PM

Right now, West Palm Beach is south of predicted landfall. But that isn't saying muh. 11 pm NWS info should be out any munite...

Just heard that hurricane watch is going up from Florida City northward. Bad Bad news. Florida City is way south... south of where Andrew went thru, south of Miami... and the storm intensity is expected to go up.

Edited by Shoshana, 01 September 2004 - 09:47 PM.


#25 Shoshana

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 09:54 PM

eep... latest info... from NWS

Quote

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

Ogami... maybe WPB isn't such a hot idea...

#26 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 10:33 PM

@ 11 p.m., same strength and wind speeds.

Barometric pressure is 939 millibars (27.72 inches). Ouch.

I wonder if it will become a Category 5 storm before landfall.

:Oo:  :unsure:
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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

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#27 Shalamar

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 10:34 PM

I'd suggest heading out of there Ogami!

Nick, you too guy!
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#28 ZipperInt

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 10:45 PM

Eep, sounds like a bad situation! Hope everyone gets through it safely... :unsure:
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#29 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 10:47 PM

AFLAC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#30 Shalamar

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 10:53 PM

Splutter....and some how I think that every bird that can leave has....
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#31 schoolpsycho

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 10:55 PM

Hi, all.

Yes, this will be bad. It will be worse than Charley. Charley was smaller, and went through here before the night was over.

Frances, on the other hand, will be in our area for at least 24 hours+.

Frances is as big as Texas.

Texas.

Or, 4X the size of Florida.

There will be massive flooding along the coast, wherever it lands, inland flooding as well, and thanks to the rains we've been getting since Charley, it's going to make a terrible situation worse. Most everyone will get hurricane force winds.

We've got...60-65 hours before landfall, that's of course, if it goes where they say it will.

sp
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#32 Shalamar

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 10:57 PM

Yeah the ground is already saturated.

You be careful too SP, stay safe!
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#33 schoolpsycho

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 10:58 PM

Thank you, Shalamar.

I will. :)

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#34 Shoshana

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 11:20 PM

The NHC's prediction path for Frances crosses Charley's path at just about Kissimmee ... right near Orlando.

That's if Frances follows the predicted path of course...

#35 Shoshana

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 11:37 PM

unofficially, from latest readings Frances is now Cat V.

Edited by Shoshana, 01 September 2004 - 11:47 PM.


#36 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 11:56 PM

I'm keeping tabs at a stormchaser's BBS I'm on. There's an 8-page thread talking about it.

Saul
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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#37 Vapor Trails

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 11:58 PM

Uh oh....

http://www.miami.com...rss/9554341.htm

:(
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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#38 Vapor Trails

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 12:01 AM

Miami Beach webcam...

http://www.evs123.co...ach/default.htm
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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#39 Vapor Trails

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 12:38 AM

This smiley seems appropriate:

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Politicians are like bananas; they hang together, they're all yellow, and there's not a straight one among them.

"We're relevant for $ and a vote once every two years. Beyond that, we're completely irrelevant, except of course to consume, and preach the gospel according to [insert political demigod here]."--Cait

#40 Shoshana

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 02:21 AM

That cat V report was premature.

Saw an intresting summary from a meteorologist in New Orleans - far enough out of the fray to not have as much of an agenda as some others..

http://www.wwltv.com...=collapsed&sb=5

Quote

Subject  Early Thursday Morning
[Post#: 29207 ]   
Posted by JGumm (User )
Posted on 9/2/04 00:45 AM



Frances Takes Aim on FL’s East Coast – Threat Remains EXTREMELY Low to SE LA

A Hurricane Watch Has Been Issued For The Florida East Coast From Florida City Northward To Flagler Beach... Including Lake Okeechobee. Some Or All Of The Hurricane Watch Area Will Likely Be Upgraded To A Hurricane Warning Thursday Morning.

My Bottom Line (In Plain English)

1.) Threat to LA still EXTREMELY low
2.) Possible landfall still ranges in scope from Miami to Savannah, with a secondary landfall possible in FL panhandle if she comes in far enough south.
3.) She may be getting stronger again tonight
4.) NHC’s forecast has been DEAD ON so far.



Current Analysis

Hurricane Frances continues to hold her own tonight. Overall, she does not look as symmetrical as just 24 hours ago, but she obviously is still a powerful hurricane. Movement continues in a WNW direction, perhaps just slightly north of that, but it doesn’t look to be a true NW movement just yet. The movement, as expected, is still around 14 mph. There has been a bit of an increase in deep convection around the eye the past hour or so. In fact, the eye is looking better once again. The western side of Frances does not appear as well-organized as it was just 24 hours ago. Also, she continues to undergo eyewall replacement cycles which make that track wobble or give it more of that “stair step” appearance. Following short term trends with the motion of the eye will make you go nuts, so be sure to look at more long-term trends. Frances continues to ride around the southern side of a subtropical ridge (high pressure). The last few IR frames suggest she may have just finished another one of these cycles and may be getting ready to intensify yet again.

We are getting some interesting information from NHC tonight regarding the fact that the ridge of high pressure to the north of Frances is much stronger than what earlier models have led us to believe. Again, I don’t see this as much of a surprise at all since many of these models have a tendency to weaken these high pressure areas too rapidly. I honestly feel as though the NHC track has been a little far to the right today and would not be surprised to see a shift in the track a little to the left tomorrow.

The Near Future

TPC has been dead on with this system so far. Frances will continue to ride around the high pressure system to her north. It’s this high pressure system which will be her main steering mechanism for the next 48 hours. After this, she will likely reach the edge of the high and begin to slow down as that happens and as the high may weaken a bit. At this point, I expect the trough digging across the country to begin to pump that ridge back up which will cause her to accelerate again, perhaps westward.

The Models

HOWEVER, this new data is in the models as of the 00Z (7pm) runs tonight and we are seeing NO ADJUSTMENT to the left in *most* of the models. Contacts tell me the FSU Super Ensemble run (a really well-performing model historically) at 00Z (top secret and not online), also with the new data, has shown NO SHIFT LEFT at all and is nearly in agreement with NHC’s current track. This is a bit perplexing because I thought we may see a shift left, perhaps as far south as West Palm Beach with the stronger ridge analyzed. It should be noted, however, other models are trending left, like the Canadian, NOGAPS and now UKMET.

Folks, the models are clearly picking up on something we may not be seeing here. There are two outliers I need to discuss. First, the GFS which is back to this becoming a “Floyd” style storm and heading to NC. We also have, on the other hand, the Canadian model which tracks the system toward us. For this update, I am disregarding BOTH of those models. I think a track in-between those is more realistic. The Canadian model’s surface features just aren’t in agreement with a storm that far west. No way no how.

I think a landfall along the FL east coast is still the way to go here. I will tend to lean a little to the left of NHC’s official forecast track, perhaps with a landfall as far south as West Palm Beach. If this storm makes landfall as far south as West Palm or even further south, then there’s a good likelihood we will see a secondary landfall in the panhandle of FL. The scary thing is the storm may be meandering very slowly to the west at this point as the high builds in advance of the trough and we, along with Frances will be waiting on that trough.

The trough – a dip in the jetstream

Yes, the trough is on the way. Check out the water vapor of the western US on my links page if you don’t believe it. If Frances takes the southern route, we are counting on this trough to come in and finish the job off and send her packing NE. Let me tell you something: If Frances does come in as far south as West Palm, that trough is key for areas just to our west. The timing and strength of this trough are key to how far west she makes it and where that second landfall will be. Now I am not saying we are in any way threatened now, but areas perhaps as close as Mobile will have to watch this carefully – IF – and that’s a big IF – IF she makes landfall as far south as West Palm. If she goes north of there, this trough will not be as critical for the panhandle and maybe even AL, but that might be pushing it.

Anyway, the new UKMET alludes to this tonight. After a central FL landfall, it brings the system due west to SE LA. Again, I think this is far fetched right now. But I need to see the upper air charts with this track.

Outside Possibility

Again, if I don’t mention this, I wouldn’t feel right. There is still an outside chance this thing could go as far north as Savannah. There is a curious trend still going on with the GFS and with the GFDL that can’t be ignored. These models are much further north and do not even call for a FL landfall. They collapse the ridge very quickly and this may be a major reason for this movement. I think the old frontal boundary may also be promoting some type of weakness in the ridge perhaps. But I can’t help to think I have seen this before – and I have, with Floyd. I am still not ready to throw this possibility out as being garbage – yet.

Enough for tonight. Time for bed.

John


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