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Dangerous Hurricane Frances

Natural Disasters Hurricane Frances 2004

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#41 LaughingVulcan

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 10:50 AM

While I hope our Floridians and mainlanders do indeed fare well, I am also concerned for the people of the Bahamas among others.

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#42 Vapor Trails

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 12:58 PM

I think this storm is on the virge of becoming a Category 5 storm.

Sustained winds are at 145 mph, while the wind gusts have reached 180 mph!!! :eek3:

And on the storm chaser forum I'm at, there's a thread where some meteorologists/chasers are dicussing the storm.

A quote:

Quote

I have a feeling that Florida only got a taste with Charley. Winds are gusting in Frances into the 180s with sustained still at 145. With the various model plots posted, it seems that the preferred solution is still to take the storm on a northerly track once it makes landfall. Any ideas on how long this thing may be able to sustain hurricane force winds? If it sustains greater than Cat 1 winds all the way through the northern half of Florida, which I would think is completely possible, this will likely go down as the costliest storm in history. I'm hearing 'talk' now of the possibility of it cutting straight through Florida, back into the Gulf with a second landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast.

:eek4:  :fear:  :eek4:

Edited by Digital Man, 02 September 2004 - 01:00 PM.

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#43 Ogami

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 01:31 PM

We're about 50 miles north of Melbourne.

The course of the hurricane is still very fluid, if it veers closer to our town we'll have to see.

Right now the best place to stay (if you're not in the estimated path) is at home.

We're almost certain to lose power though, possible flooding in some low lying areas of town.

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#44 Appreciate

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 02:16 PM

Wow and oh, no! :(

Florida has begun to evacuate one million people, according to Yahoo!

I hope all you Floridians will be all right!!!

An anxious,
Kathy
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#45 Nick

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 02:24 PM

Yeah, I *just* got cable back the other day, and the power only came back last Wednesday from Charley.  I'm following the updates, and while I had been considering hitting the road to get the hell outta dodge, I'm seriously reconsidering that idea since the evacuations have already started and I wouldn't be able to get on the road until tomorrow evening.  It looks like I'll be riding this one out.  I'm definately *not* staying in a house.  The house I presently live in is in downtown Orlando, but I'm going to park my car in one of the big garages and wait out the storm with friends in their downtown apartment building instead.  Sturdier structures w/ underground power lines = good. :)

I'll keep you all posted as I can.  Fellow Floridians, take the proper precautions & stay safe!

And Ogami--I'd strongly reccomend getting away from the coast.  There are still hotel rooms in Orlando, book a room in a nice, strudy, downtown building with a garage!

-Nick

Edited by Nick, 02 September 2004 - 02:27 PM.


#46 Shalamar

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 04:58 PM

Satalite photo 5:30ish EDT...

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Edited by Shalamar, 02 September 2004 - 04:59 PM.

The three most important R's
Respect for One's Self / Respect for Others / Responsibility for One's Words & Actions.

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#47 Vapor Trails

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 10:09 PM

At 11 p.m....

The hurricane has weakened, somewhat. Maximum winds are down to 125 mph, with gusts to 155 mph.

Edited by Digital Man, 02 September 2004 - 10:10 PM.

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#48 Shalamar

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 10:13 PM

Quote

Residents and tourists in cars, trucks and campers clogged highways Thursday in the biggest evacuation ever ordered in Florida, fleeing inland as mighty Hurricane Frances threatened the state with its second battering in three weeks.   

About 2.5 million residents were told to clear out ahead of what could be the most powerful storm to hit Florida in a decade. Other people in the 300-mile stretch covered by the hurricane warning rushed to fortify their homes with plywood and storm shutters, and buy water, gas and canned food.

Already a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds and the potential to push ashore waves up to 15 feet high, Frances could make itself felt in the state by midmorning Friday.

With that many people trying to clear out yeah, the best thing maybe to say put in very secure shelter.

Make sure you have pleanty of bottled water at non perishable food that doesn't need heating to be edible.

But you all have probably heard that a hundred times by now.

I don't know if any of you guys have pets but they'll need supplies too.




At 11 p.m. EDT, the hurricane was centered 330 miles southeast of West Palm Beach and was moving northwest at close to 10 mph. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 80 miles from its center.
The three most important R's
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#49 Vapor Trails

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 10:38 PM

My aunt recently moved to Spring Hills, which is in Hernando County.

I hope she'll be okay.

:(
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#50 Nick

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Posted 03 September 2004 - 12:33 PM

She's down to 115 MPH winds, however the storm has slowed to 9 MPH, which means it's going to CRAWL over the state.  Current projections are showing her coming ashore at Melbourne, hitting Orlando directly.  It appears to be Saturday night that we'll feel the brunt of it, I'm packing a suitcase expected to stay with friends during the storm.  This may be my last update (actually, the weather right now is just beautiful--the calm before the storm, to be sure) . . . now I'm going to just get myself ready and prepare the house.

-Nick

#51 jon3831

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Posted 03 September 2004 - 12:36 PM

Okay...

Good luck to you and all our other Florida EIers...
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#52 Nick

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Posted 03 September 2004 - 08:37 PM

Some reassuring developments:

Frances has weakened to a Category 2 storm, and the projected tracks have adjusted more to the south, making it look less likely that Orlando will be experiencing a direct hit.

Unfortunately:

She's also slowed to a virtual stand-still at 4 MPH meaning it's going to take longer to come ashore, have a better chance of changing its path who-knows-where, and have more time over the gulf stream to potentially strengthen back up again . . . Annnnnnd it's gunna dump a tremendous amount of rain and just SIT on top of wherever it does strike.

Although that does mean it'll weaken even more once it hits land so maybe it won't be so bad as Charley . . .

Uggggh.

I won't start feeling this beast until late tomorrow so I should be able to post a few more updates between now and then . . .

Stupid hurricanes . . .

-Nick

#53 StarDust

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Posted 03 September 2004 - 09:28 PM

^^ So less will be affected, but those affected will be hit harder!

#54 Shoshana

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Posted 03 September 2004 - 10:23 PM

actually I don;t think they've said Frances is smaller sizewise, just that the winds aren't as fierce. So this could be worse in the long run. Moving slower = more ... alot more rain = more flooding. Same amound of land covered either way.

#55 Anakam

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Posted 03 September 2004 - 10:25 PM

I heard an early squall in Florida dumped half an inch of rain in 15 minutes.  :blink:

Owie.  Stay safe, Floridian EI'ers. :)
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#56 Nick

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Posted 05 September 2004 - 01:32 AM

Staying with friends now . . . cable went out this morning (and the storm hasn't even hit yet!  Damn you cable company!)

more later.

#57 Nick

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Posted 05 September 2004 - 11:01 AM

Still with friends, the storm is progressing slowly . . . lots of wind and rain.  Not much to do now but just sit and wait . . . *sigh*

#58 Shoshana

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Posted 05 September 2004 - 03:10 PM

Emergency people in Central FL are already telling people not to take down their hurricane shutters.

Ivan is a Cat III and growing. Still pretty far out there, we'll know more by the end of the week.

http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/051733.shtml?





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