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Tropical Storm Jeane right after Ivan

Natural Disasters Tropical Storm Jeane 2004

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#1 Lord of the Sword

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 06:37 PM

Just finished watching some of the weather channel. There is a tropical Storm named Jeane coming in right after Ivan. What are the odds that Jeane won't becoming a Hurricane? What is with all these massive Hurricanes lately?
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#2 tennyson

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 07:02 PM

It could be chance or it could be part of global warming. Any time you put more energy into a system it rises into a more excited state. If this is global warming related then we are seeing the first part of what could become a seasonal trend of large, energetic hurricanes and other "extreme weather" due to the increasing energy being added to the global weather system. But to confirm this would require years of observation and modeling to determine wether this is a shift to a new stable state or simply a chance occurence.

#3 Gefiltefishmon

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 07:38 PM

^ What he said!

One wonders though - IF, after ten or so years of multi-hurricane seasons decimating Florida will Global Warming become accepted by the conservative movement - or will it still all be in the imagination of the liberal science establishment?
"To know that you do not know is the best. To act from the pretense that you know when you do not know is a disease" - Lao Tzu

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#4 Delvo

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 07:43 PM

There's no reason to think that this season's hurricane activity is related to global warming. Some predictions of global warming's results say that would happen, but some others say the opposite would. That lets people say that WHATEVER happens is a result of global warming. In fact, global warming has already been blamed for the inordinately LOW hurricane activity we've had for the last few decades (from which this increase, if it holds in future years, would just be a return to normal).

#5 Jid

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Posted 15 September 2004 - 08:57 PM

As I'm sure you're all aware, tropical storms and hurricanes grow in areas of warm ocean waters.  For some reason, this year the atlantic in the areas around the Caribbean  and South America are a few degrees above normal.

Global warming?

Maybe.  the fact is, we really don't know.

There is hurricane data going back 150  years.  We know how many hurricanes they had and roughly how bad they were back into the 1800s.  However, there's the very real possibility that the ocean temperature and corresponding hurricane frequency could be on a 200 year cycle.  Or a 400 year cycle.

There's just so many unknown variables, all we can really say is the situation we're in, and not really what's causing it.
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#6 Chakotay

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Posted 16 September 2004 - 02:47 AM

Atmospheric pollution probably isn't helping, but the big money won't join the eco-brigade until it can be proven in a court of law so they can be held responsible for their actions beyond that point.   By which time it may be too late, the sea levels will be rising as well, increased rainfall may reduce the salinity of the oceans, there could be massive migration from low lying areas and the enlarging deserts.

In short, the next 50 years could get very 'interesting' indeed.

Whatever happened to 'borrowing the land from our grandchildren?'
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#7 Kosh

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Posted 16 September 2004 - 08:33 AM

I've been watching intently, since TV sucks for the most part, and this is what I've learned in the last two days.


Hurricanes run in cycles, ruffly 60 years cycles of high and low activity. From some point in the 1930's to the 1960's, we had some major hurricane activity, with some major stroms hitting the coasts. After the 60's, we dropped into the 30 year lull, which continued till the 90's. We have been having signifcant hurricane activity since the early 90's, but do to weather patterens, it's been off shore for the most part, with Andrew being the biggest of the stroms to hit a coast in that time. Conditions changed this year, and are now condustive to bring these storms to our coast lines instead of keeping them out to sea. We can not only expect it to continue this year, but for the next 20 years. They may well stay off shore most years, but we will have significant hurricane activity, probably up to 2020.

The strom experts that I have been seeing seem to agree that it has nothing to do with Gloabl Warming, although this year has seen a very large number of storms, we are due for them. It looks as though this season has had more storms then  would be normal, but not by much. The intensity is a little higher on average, but not by much.


One guy said to watch the early part of the hurricane season. If the storms tend to hit the coast early, they will tend to follow the trend for the season.

My conclution. What has gone around, is coming around again. Batten down the hatchs, and if you are building near the shore, build a dome that is 20 feet or so above sea level. It will take the winds and high water from storms this size. If it doesn't get hit by some large debris, it's your best chance of your home surviving.
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