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Israel threatens to bomb Iran

Israel Iran Bomb Osirak Nuclear Complex

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#41 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 12:02 PM

MuseZack, on Sep 26 2004, 12:46 PM, said:

Iran is gonna get nukes, and we just need to deal with it.  You think Iran hasn't taken notes from Iraq's Osirak experience and dispersed/hardened their facilities accordingly?  Israel simply doesn't have the capacity for the precision bombing campaign against multiple targets over an extended period of time that would be necessary to disarm Iran's nuclear capacity.  The Unites States does, but Iran has such a capacity for retaliation against us is such that it's a very dicey proposition.  You think dealing with Sadr has been a pain? Just wait until 100,000 Revolutionary Guards pour into the Shiite regions of Iraq and the mullahs rearm Hekmatyar and the other thugs in Afghanistan they maintain ties with.  And let's not even get started on Hezbollah, which has observed an informal truce against US interests since the late 1980s but makes Al Qaeda look like amateurs when it comes to terrorist strikes.

And as for Iran itself, it's not Iraq.  The country has 3 times Iraq's population, a military that hasn't been weakened by sanctions, and mountainous borders.  And while there's a tremendous amount of internal dissatisfaction with the mullahs, the Iranians are also intensely patriotic and tend to rally around the flag when outsiders threaten them.  I wish there were good options in dealing with Iran, but there really aren't.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



^^^ So what happens when the Iranians lob a nuke at Tel Aviv, worse start dictating American and Israel foreign policy, because they can? And do you really think that the Europeans have any sympathy for the Jew. Do you really think that the Mullahs are going to let Israel stand?

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Edited by emsparks, 26 September 2004 - 12:04 PM.

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#42 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 12:46 PM

I forgot to add the way things are going with the Iranians internal politics, for the very same reasons that Zack mentioned the Mullahs need a war to stay in power, as they have nothing to offer a peaceful Iran except a trip into the past. When the Iranians perfect their bombs there will be a war… As Zack says the Iranians are not the Iraqis.

The trouble with most Americans that has received a liberal arts education is they believe in “the rules of war.” They also talk about the lessons of Vietnam. Well if you study the fighting in Vietnam, the first lessons you learn is the only rule in war is that there are no rules in warfare. That the enemy will exploit any tactical, and emotional advantage they can. So we have yet to learn the lessons of Vietnam.

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#43 Godeskian

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 01:19 PM

Quote

And do you really think that the Europeans have any sympathy for the Jew.

:glare:

Yes, because all any good european wants is to murder the jew.

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#44 CJ AEGIS

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 01:25 PM

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Sparky: So what happens when the Iranians lob a nuke at Tel Aviv, worse start dictating American and Israel foreign policy, because they can?
You would have to maintain deterrence in an intact manner if the Iranians start to use nukes.  That means sections of Iran into a parking lot with nuclear weapons as an example to the world as to what happens to you when you aggressively use nuclear weapons.  If that example wasn’t made a lot more people will die in the long term as deterrence breaks down.    

In the long term...  LOTS of money gets poured into ABM programs.  An ABL over Iraq could take care of Iran's missiles rather handily.

Quote

Zack: Israel simply doesn't have the capacity for the precision bombing campaign against multiple targets over an extended period of time that would be necessary to disarm Iran's nuclear capacity.
I would not underestimate the capacity of the IDF to do something.  That has been something the West, the Arabs, and the Russians did one to many times with the Israelis coming out on top due to some handing improvisation.  On paper an extended series of strikes against Israel is against the capability of Israel but in reality I wouldn’t count them out.

Quote

Tennyson: even more unlikely that the Iranians would commit ground troops to attack Israel since the only way for them to go would be through Iraq.
Well that would make things interesting…  The IDF and the US Military against Iran in Iraq.
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#45 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 01:40 PM

Cyberhippie, on Sep 26 2004, 02:19 PM, said:

Quote

And do you really think that the Europeans have any sympathy for the Jew.

:glare:

Yes, because all any good european wants is to murder the jew.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Your equating “having no sympathy for” and “killing” is a bit extreme.

Of course the Europeans aren’t into killing the Jews. No, the Europeans feel the Jews can live wherever they want as long as it’s not in their neighborhood.

There is still a great deal of Anti-Semitism in the Protestant, Catholic, and Orthodox churches, predating the up surge during WWII.

Just look at how supportive they’ve been, in solving the problems in the Middle East.

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Edited by emsparks, 26 September 2004 - 01:45 PM.

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#46 G1223

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 01:58 PM

Well CH then why have Jewish temples been burned in Germany and France in such numbers as to make Jews uncomfortable in those countries. And make the international press. The police have yet to take direct action against the groups suspecting it or make serious arrests.

So it would not be totally off the mark to say Europe has a great  lack of empathy for the Jews is not a lack of concern for their safety.

Or they need to accept that we and a few other folks do not trust them with the bomb.  After all when they supply it to Arab rebels in southern Russia do you think the Russiand are going to leave anyone alive when they get down there.

I mean you think they are not going to export them along with the message of violence. IF we must accept them getting Nukes lets do it the smart way. By being the ones to give it to them via airdrop or ICBM.

Becasue Iran is not a trustworthy nation and we cannot take the time out to keep talking with them. Now let it be the US the Russians or the Israeli Air Force but stop them if they will not stop themselves.
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#47 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 02:06 PM

Dear CJ:
Zack has a point about the Israeli logistics, given that we can’t now produce enough bullets for the Iraqi war. Due to the shipping of our manufacturing jobs over seas, we, as in the United States don’t have the productive capacity to support a prolonged war, therefore neither does Israel. Nobody is underestimating the IDF, only their numbers and their logistics train. A war with the Iranians, unless there is a substantial fifth column in Iran, is going to be one of attrition.

If on the other hand someone decides to turn Iran in to a field of glass, for what ever reason, that could incense the entire Muslim world. So I don’t see deterrence as viable as the Mullahs just love Martyrs.

AND then there is China who has a growing oil interest in the region, whose side will they fall out on.

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#48 Godeskian

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 02:12 PM

G1223, on Sep 26 2004, 07:58 PM, said:

Well CH then why have Jewish temples been burned in Germany and France in such numbers as to make Jews uncomfortable in those countries. And make the international press.

You got any links for this mass burning of temples in Germany and France? Because this is the first i've heard of it.

Or is this another one of those late eighties holdovers?

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#49 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 02:26 PM

Cyberhippie, on Sep 26 2004, 03:12 PM, said:

G1223, on Sep 26 2004, 07:58 PM, said:

Well CH then why have Jewish temples been burned in Germany and France in such numbers as to make Jews uncomfortable in those countries. And make the international press.

You got any links for this mass burning of temples in Germany and France? Because this is the first i've heard of it.

Or is this another one of those late eighties holdovers?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


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See the following;
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--------------------------------------------------------

Found on:
http://www.debka.com...icle.php?aid=95

Near Elections, France Finally Guards Jewish Sites
April 2, 2002, 4:55 PM (GMT+02:00)
As the French presidential election campaign peaked, a spate of serious arson attacks on Jewish synagogues forced reluctant French leaders to address the country’s long-running and fast-spreading anti-Semitic campaign with action.

Candidate and prime minister Lionel Jospin announced Monday, April 1, that, within 48 hours, 1,100 riot police would fan out through Lyon, Marseille and 10 other cities to guard Jewish religious and cultural centers and schools.

In the last three days, a synagogue in Marseille was burned to the ground with scrolls and books, arsonists tried and failed to ignite a synagogue in Strasbourg, masked ram-raiders slammed two stolen cars into a synagogue in Lyon, then set it ablaze, a synagogue across the border in Brussels was firebombed, and a gunman opened fire on a kosher butcher in Toulouse. In the Lyon suburb of Villeurbanne, a Jewish couple was attacked. Sunday, Jewish places of worship in the suburbs of Nice, on the French Riviera, were stoned.

”It is the first time in French Jewish history that a synagogue has been wiped off the map in this way,” said a Jewish spokesman in Marseille.

Monday, April 1, 4,000 people spontaneously took to the streets of Marseille to show solidarity with the city’s Jewish community. In Paris, Lyon and Strasbourg, 15,000 marched in support of the Palestinians.

Calling the assaults an organized commando operation, Jospin refused to connect them to the upsurge of violence in the Middle East. “That would not justify acts of aggression against our Jewish or any other compatriots,” he said. The prime minister was referring to claims that France’s four million Arabs have been stirred to anger against its 700,000 Jews by Israel’s siege of Yasser Arafat in Ramallah.

President Jacques Chirac, who is running for re-election, condemned the incidents as “intolerable, unimaginable and unpardonable.” He promised a probe into the assaults. Next day, he balanced his statement with remarks criticizingIsrael’s counter-terror campaign against Palestinians and urging Israel’s speedy withdrawal from Palestinian-ruled areas.

This latest wave of attacks in France - compared by Jewish leaders to pre-war Nazi atrocities against the Jews of Germany - has pushed anti-Semitic violence onto both leading presidential candidates’ agendas, three weeks before the first round of the election on April 21. It has cast a shadow over the tense law and order debate and embarrassed the French government, which has long been trying to play down accusations that it is an increasingly anti-Semitic country.

The Union of Jewish Students and six other Jewish bodies have called a demonstration for April 7 to decry “anti-Semitic terrorism in France” and voice support for Israel.

---------------------------------------------------

Do you need more, and maybe you’d like links about the growing Neo-Nazi movement in Germany.
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#50 Godeskian

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 02:34 PM

right, 2 years ago,

And the referred event in Germany?

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#51 Cardie

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 02:39 PM

CH, there is indeed growing antisemitism in Europe, sometimes coupled with right-wing anti-immigration sentiments.  What's more, the European Left, with some justifiable concerns about Israeli actions, have often slipped into heated "anti-Zionist" rhetoric that gives aid and comfort to anti-Semites.  For so much of its history, Europe was overwhelmingly white, so prejudices coalesced around ethnic and religious fault lines, with the Jews being everyone's favorite targets.  That's one reason the holocaust was able to happen. (And the US didn't exactly jump in to stop it either, lest you think I'm Euro-bashing.)

Now you have significant Muslim populations within European nations adding their own anti-Jewish fervor to what was indigenous to Christian Europe since the Middle Ages.  What the Nazis did sent these prejudices underground for a couple of generations, but they are bubbling up again, and world Jewry is very concerned.

See here for an overview:

http://www.philly.co.../7511964.htm?1c

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#52 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 02:47 PM

Steven_Q, on Sep 26 2004, 03:34 PM, said:

right, 2 years ago,

And the referred event in Germany?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


You said that we wouldn’t be able to find anything less the twenty years old admitting that there was problems in the 1980’s. Lets see in France events around the Dreyfuss case of the late 1800's, events in the 1930’s – 40’s 50’s 60’s 70’s and 80’s and a long series of events leading up to the elections of 2002, as noted in the article. AND you expect that all of a sudden in two years the problem has magically subsided.

With respect you have lost all creditability on this subject.
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#53 Godeskian

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 02:53 PM

you know what Sparky, I had a lot more respect for you when you argued my points rather than inventing new ones and pretending i said them

Did i say they should be magically fixed? no i did not
Am I a sodding history expert of France? no, i am not

I was told, explicitly by G, that there were events in France and Germany, I did not know about, so I asked, you provide me with only one of the two incidents so i asked about the other

as for the rest of it, consider me removed from this discussion, and i'd appreciate it if in the future you don't put any more words in my mouth.

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#54 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 03:01 PM

Steven_Q, on Sep 26 2004, 03:53 PM, said:

you know what Sparky, I had a lot more respect for you when you argued my points rather than inventing new ones and pretending i said them

Did i say they should be magically fixed? no i did not
Am I a sodding history expert of France? no, i am not

I was told, explicitly by G, that there were events in France and Germany, I did not know about, so I asked, you provide me with only one of the two incidents so i asked about the other

as for the rest of it, consider me removed from this discussion, and i'd appreciate it if in the future you don't put any more words in my mouth.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


The points I made are embedded in your postings. By asking if my comments were based in the 1980’s you are admitted that you knew of problems in the 1980’s, there is no invention there. Do as you will...
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#55 CJ AEGIS

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 03:25 PM

Quote

Sparky: Zack has a point about the Israeli logistics, given that we can’t now produce enough bullets for the Iraqi war.
Many of the logistical shortfalls the US is currently suffering from are being made up from by Israeli Arms Industry that is still rather intact and stable.  

Quote

Sparky: Nobody is underestimating the IDF, only their numbers and their logistics train. A war with the Iranians, unless there is a substantial fifth column in Iran, is going to be one of attrition.
A ground war perhaps might turn into a war of attrition.  An aerial war using the resources of the IAF might be able to avoid that attrition.  The Iranians have some good aircraft and good air defense equipment as noted by Tennyson but they have it in limited numbers.  The IAF is arguably one of the best air forces in the world and has gone so far as to best USN carrier groups in the past.  I would not underestimate their capability to hammer their way into Iran and hit targets.  Israeli intelligence is probably going to be the best you can find in the Middle East.

Iran on the other hand can only lob missiles back at Israel and if they use chemical or biological warheads it leaves Iran open to nuclear attack.  

Quote

Sparky: If on the other hand someone decides to turn Iran in to a field of glass, for what ever reason, that could incense the entire Muslim world. So I don’t see deterrence as viable as the Mullahs just love Martyrs.
I think you are underestimating the sheer horror of a nuclear strike and the aftermath of it.  Consider what the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki did to the will of the Japanese to continue fighting on.  Sure the Mullahs are radicals but the Japanese during World War II in terms of fanaticism was not a culture that was on a even keel.  Might there be an outrage?  I’m betting there would be but there would also be a fear of being the next on the list for that type of treatment.  I think a nuclear attack in this type of circumstances would do a lot to stir up the Mullahs who are out of touch with reality but the average person on the street would be more in shock.  Wiping out an entire country isn’t something that you walk away from saying “we’ll get them back next time”.  

Quote

Cardie: (And the US didn't exactly jump in to stop it either, lest you think I'm Euro-bashing.)
Short of allowing open immigration to the US as a safe haven there isn’t much the US could have done to ward off the Holocaust.  It could have been done and should have been done but when you get into the minds of the people of the day you can understand why not.  In terms of attitude the US was deeply isolationist with no military that could have intervened in Europe.  By the time the US was into the war the quickest way to stop it was to strike at Germany and knock them out of the war.
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#56 Cardie

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 03:47 PM

It was the isolationism and the turning away of desperate refugees that I was referencing.  I was talking about European conduct during the Holocaust, so I thought I should make the point that the US wasn't champing at the bit to get involved either.

There's plenty of latent antisemitism here as well, as I can attest to from experience, but because of the much more racially diverse makeup of the US from its founding, Jews were never at the tops of everyone's list as they were in Christian Europe.

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#57 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 04:06 PM

Dear CJ:
You don’t what to open the can of worms about the American inaction concerning the holocaust.

You ever here of a ship called the “St. Louis?”
http://www.ushmm.org...duleId=10005267

The Allies knew full well what was going on in the concentration camps. The Polish Home Army (the polish underground) had not only provided documentation and pictures, they, believe it or not had, actually taken at least two Allied agents on walking tours inside the Warsaw Ghetto, and the Auschwitz / Birkenau complex. The Allied command refused to do any thing or even allow it to be published. There was even a Jewish leader who set himself on fire, and died in front of British government offices.

AS what could have been done:
In the case of the Auschwitz / Birkenau complex, one of the most notorious death camps, the Allies bombed the near by IG Farbin works (Factory), but refused to bomb the rail heads, and gas chambers / crematoria at Auschwitz / Birkenau, as the Jewish congress begged them to do many times. The war department said it wasn’t a military target, and they where afraid of killing nearby inmates. Since aren’t railheads feeding a major war materials factory, the IG Farbin works not a military target.

Rumor has it that the US military refused to bomb the crematoria because the Germans housed, if you can call it that, captured allied intelligence agents in the actual gas chamber / crematoria buildings.

The point is we where bombing a factory less then a mile away from the camp and we couldn’t bomb the gas chambers.

We’ll talk more about the other stuff later or tomorrow, as I am getting tired now.

Sparky::

Edited by emsparks, 26 September 2004 - 04:14 PM.

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#58 CJ AEGIS

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 04:19 PM

Quote

Sparky: The point is we where bombing a factory less then a mile away from the camp and we couldn’t bomb the gas chambers.
Bombers in World War II missed their targets sometimes by a mile to several miles at times.  How are you expecting a bombing raid to hit that camp’s gas chambers without leveling the camp?  B-17s are not exactly the same as a B-2 loaded down with GPS guided JDAMs.  Such a bombing raid attempt would have leveled the entire camp in the process and even then might not have destroyed the gas chambers.
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#59 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 04:31 PM

CJ AEGIS, on Sep 26 2004, 05:19 PM, said:

Quote

Sparky: The point is we where bombing a factory less then a mile away from the camp and we couldn’t bomb the gas chambers.
Bombers in World War II missed their targets sometimes by a mile to several miles at times.  How are you expecting a bombing raid to hit that camp’s gas chambers without leveling the camp?  B-17s are not exactly the same as a B-2 loaded down with GPS guided JDAMs.  Such a bombing raid attempt would have leveled the entire camp in the process and even then might not have destroyed the gas chambers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I know that, and so did the Jewish world congress at the time, at least this way some Germans and Lithuania guards would die along with the members of our families.

Understand something, a very small fraction of the Jews that when into Auschwitz / Birkenau complex, came out alive in the end. The vast majority died some of the most horrific deaths imaginable. The gas, Zyclon B, (an early form of insecticide) was not an easy death. Many very many, where not killed by the gas, but only stunned, and then still alive thrown into the ovens to be burned alive. Death by allied bombing was quick and humane by comparison and it had the added advantage of taking those [expletive deleted] with them.

You of all people can’t tell me that: if you're where going to be killed no matter what, you wouldn’t want to take your murder with you…

Sparky::

Edited by emsparks, 26 September 2004 - 05:00 PM.

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#60 emsparks

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Posted 26 September 2004 - 04:59 PM

Just so you know what we’re talking about. The following was taken from:

http://motlc.wiesent...003/t00315.html

AUSCHWITZ-BIRKENAU
AUSCHWITZ: Largest Nazi concentration and death camp. Auschwitz II, Birkenau, one of 45 subcamps, operated 4 gas chamber centers which killed 6,000 people daily. Those who weren't gassed and cremated upon arrival, died from cruel labor and starvation. 1 1/2 million Jewish people were murdered at Auschwitz.


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