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Latest Gallup results

Election 2004 Gallup poll

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#1 StarDust

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 05:12 PM

Gallup Poll results.

Latest Gallup poll has Bush commanding a 8 point lead among likely voters, an 11 point lead among all voters.

Of course the Kerry camp says Gallup is out of sync, which is funny since they are the poll standard.   :rolleyes:


I also had heard on the news last week that Kerry had an all time low lead among women voters, only 48% to 45%.   I heard today that he's lost that lead, although I couldn't find that in this poll.  

ABCNews was pointing out last week that was why Kerry was suddenly addressing mothers with regard to the safety of their children, because the Kerry camp realized they were in real trouble without the female vote.

#2 HubcapDave

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 05:29 PM

It's lookin' like Kerry's gotta come through good in the debates, or he's toast!

#3 nutmeg

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 06:02 PM

The problem is with how the polls are statistically weighted for gender, political affiliation, etc. In the case of the Gallop poll, the error seems to be in how they weighted their sample for political affiliation. Even pollsters who were once thought to be above suspicion are now suspicious. To quote "Votemaster" (who shows Bush currently ahead in electoral votes if the election were held today)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

"Gallup, for example, is now normalizing its samples to include 40% Republicans, even though the 2000 exit polls showed the partisan distribution to be 39% Democratic, 35% Republican. There is scant evidence that the underlying partisan distribution has changed much since then. Other pollsters also normalize their data, but most don't say how. Normalizing the sample to ensure the proper number of women, elderly voters, etc. is legitimate provided that the pollster publicly states what has been done."  

So, I'm not trusting the polls too much right now and will wait to see how this all  shakes out. My educated guess is that the polls, such as the Pew Poll which shows just a few percentage points difference between the two men is probably closer to reality.

nutmeg

edited to add that I do agree that Kerry needs to make a good showing in the debates.

Edited by nutmeg, 28 September 2004 - 06:15 PM.


#4 Delvo

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 06:52 PM

HubcapDave, on Sep 28 2004, 04:29 PM, said:

It's lookin' like Kerry's gotta come through good in the debates, or he's toast!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not necessarily, depending on the details; for example, this lead is a net result of gains in some places and losses in others, and the only state I know of that's actually looking like it's changed its likely outcome (PA) actually broke in the opposite direction from the national trend, going back to Kerry after a few Bush weeks.... beside which, Kerry probably WILL look better in debates than Bush, since they are one of Kerry's strengths and one of Bush's weaknesses.

#5 HubcapDave

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 07:42 PM

Delvo, on Sep 28 2004, 04:52 PM, said:

HubcapDave, on Sep 28 2004, 04:29 PM, said:

It's lookin' like Kerry's gotta come through good in the debates, or he's toast!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not necessarily, depending on the details; for example, this lead is a net result of gains in some places and losses in others, and the only state I know of that's actually looking like it's changed its likely outcome (PA) actually broke in the opposite direction from the national trend, going back to Kerry after a few Bush weeks.... beside which, Kerry probably WILL look better in debates than Bush, since they are one of Kerry's strengths and one of Bush's weaknesses.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


But it has been pointed out before that Bush does just as well in debates as Kerry does.

#6 StarDust

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Posted 28 September 2004 - 08:28 PM

I've heard that Bush does very well.   Of course, in the past, certain elements liked to try and explain that he did well because so little was expected of him.  I disagree.  No matter what any one says, you can't be president of the US and be a dumb man.  Whether you approve of what any one of them does or not, it's easily the hardest job on the planet, ever.

Bush is generally considered more likeable and a better public speaker.

Of course very few people say the debates will change their mind.  I've heard it said that Americans have paid more attention to this campaign than any presidential elections in a long time. I never understood why some thought the campaigning started in September, because that clearly wasn't true.  The whole country has been quite vested for some time now

What I would like to know is how "likely voters" is determined.  Do they just ask, or do they have some kind of algorithm to figure it out.



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