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China Authorizes Military Force

Military-Asia China Authorized force

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#1 D'Monix

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 07:56 AM

China Authorizes Force to halt Taiwan Independence

yikes

:Oo:

#2 Han

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 10:15 AM

Good. It codifies what the policy has always been, that if Taiwan declares independence, China is authorized to use "non-peaceful" means to prevent it.
Han

#3 Rov Judicata

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 10:33 AM

China could turn Taiwan into a smoking ruin with missiles, but it's not at all clear that they could conquer it.

China's military was discussed here: http://www.exisle.ne...=3950&hl=series

The upshot is that invading China would be pretty much a lost cause (and let's all hope it never comes to that in any case). However, China has an extremely limited ability to project force. Further, Taiwan has been preparing for a Chinese invasion for over five decades. They're more than ready.

Edited by Hotspur Rovinski, 14 March 2005 - 10:34 AM.

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#4 Zwolf

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 10:49 AM

Quote

Further, Taiwan has been preparing for a Chinese invasion for over five decades. They're more than ready.

****** That's for sure.  A friend of mine was teaching English in Taiwan a few years back, and he was on his way to work one day when everything suddenly shut down, everybody was herded off the street into buildings, and this general state-of-emergency popped up out of nowhere.  Nobody was on the street but cops, who were swarming everywhere, and my friend got freaked out and thought there'd been an attack or a riot or something, and some lady next to him just looked over, bored, and said, "Don't worry... they're just practicing for when China invades."   They definitely think it's going to happen sometime.

Hopefully it'll be the "duck and cover" of this decade, and will come to nothing...

Cheers,

Zwolf

Edited by Zwolf666, 14 March 2005 - 11:14 AM.

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#5 Rov Judicata

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 10:52 AM

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Nobody was on the street but cops, who were swarming everywhere, and my friend got freaked out and thought there'd been an attack or a riot or something, and some lady next to him just looked over, bored, and said, "Don't worry... they're just practicing for when China invades." They definitely think it's going to happen sometime.

Awesome. That's a great anecdote (although, from context, I suspect your first 'China' is supposed to read 'Taiwan'). That's exactly the sort of thing they can and should be doing. And, of course, military preperation often *prevents* an attack, which would save many lives on both sides. It's a great investment all around.

Edited by Hotspur Rovinski, 14 March 2005 - 10:52 AM.

St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. § 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#6 Han

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:00 AM

^^ I wouldn't be so sure. Give it a few years.

What this law does, is the following:

1) Force the Taiwan public to choose how to respond. If, like some politicians in Taiwan are advocating, they pass a anti-annexation law, it serves China's interest in preserving the status quo. If they don't then they will appear to be adhereing/accepting the anti-succession law, which will appease the hardliners in China's military.

2) By putting into legal words what has always been stated, it legalizes China's options. And since most of the world, including the US, has voiced their support for the "One China" principle, and that Taiwan is a part of China, it would be hypocritical to object to China passing such a law, which at most, is a preventive law outlining what is allowed if independence is declared -- not a law that sets out deadlines or demands for reunification.

3) Sooner or later, a law such as this will have to be passed, to do it now, at a time when the Taiwan public's disapproval of Chen Shui-Bian's policy and his recent declaration that he won't pursue independence, will lessen the ammunition this law will provide to pro-independence forces on the island. Chen won't be able to use this law to regain popularity without coming off as a hypocrite.

4) This law also lays out the bounds of the issue, and forces a resolution, even if its a slow going resolution, to the issue as well as slowing down the creeping independence drive.

What's bad about this law:

1) It will increase tensions in the short term and be a Sword of Damocles hanging over the head of Taiwan, which is unhelpful.

2) It will set back some of the drive to get the arms embargo lifted in Europe.

3) It could embolden Taiwanese politicians to increase military ties with Japan and the US, further increasing tensions.

What's the next step:

President Hu should now have appeased the hardliners and should move towards a more softer approach (this law being the stick, a carrot should be offered). More business links, permanent air routes, opening a dialogue with the Taiwan government and pursuing a policy to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwan public.

Make no mistake, Taiwan is a part of China and while it must be allowed autonomy, democracy, free speech, etc., independence is out of the question. China needs Taiwan as an example of what it needs to become. Reunification should be peaceful but if it fails (hopefully it won't), force will be required.

Edited by Hankuang, 14 March 2005 - 11:03 AM.

Han

#7 Godeskian

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:05 AM

Quote

Make no mistake, Taiwan is a part of China and while it must be allowed autonomy, democracy, free speech, etc., independence is out of the question

why?

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#8 Nonny

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:06 AM

Hankuang, on Mar 14 2005, 08:00 AM, said:

China needs Taiwan as an example of what it needs to become.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You don't always get what you want.  I hope China doesn't get Taiwan.  

As for "what it needs to become," why does it have to destroy Taiwan to do that?  Why can't it just become "what it needs to become" on its own?  

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#9 Zwolf

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:15 AM

Quote

(although, from context, I suspect your first 'China' is supposed to read 'Taiwan').

******* You are correct. :)  Thanks for spotting  that - I went back and edited it to fix it.

Cheers,

Zwolf
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#10 Han

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:15 AM

Steven_Q, on Mar 14 2005, 04:05 PM, said:

Quote

Make no mistake, Taiwan is a part of China and while it must be allowed autonomy, democracy, free speech, etc., independence is out of the question

why?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Because the people living in Taiwan are Chinese. And the entity known as China has been unified for a long time. If Taiwan permanently breaks away, it could lead to other parts of China breaking away as well. As a chinese person, that's something I cannot support. The only upside I see to independence that I can support, is if by breaking away, it brings down the Communist party and brings about democracy in China. Governments come and go, but the state and entity known as China should always remain. I have no doubt that the communist government will eventually fall or transform itself into a democratic one. China must keep Taiwan close until this comes about. If after China becomes democratic and the whole united country votes to allow Taiwan independence, then I can support it.

Quote

You don't always get what you want. I hope China doesn't get Taiwan.

As for "what it needs to become," why does it have to destroy Taiwan to do that? Why can't it just become "what it needs to become" on its own?

Why didn't the Union forces just let the Confederates just leave and form their own country?

I hope China does get Taiwan, but that it happens peacefully and only after China has become a democracy. I hope Taiwan reunifies with China on its own accord and with both sides eager to do so. I think this law will help preserve the status quo until this happens. I don't believe China will destroy Taiwan, it may attack it and invade, but they won't destroy it.

Edited by Hankuang, 14 March 2005 - 11:27 AM.

Han

#11 Nonny

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:27 AM

Hankuang, on Mar 14 2005, 08:15 AM, said:

Steven_Q, on Mar 14 2005, 04:05 PM, said:

Quote

Make no mistake, Taiwan is a part of China and while it must be allowed autonomy, democracy, free speech, etc., independence is out of the question
why?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because the people living in Taiwan are Chinese. And the entity known as China has been unified for a long time. If Taiwan permanently breaks away, it could lead to other parts of China breaking away as well. As a chinese person, that's something I cannot support. The only upside I see to independence that I can support, is if by breaking away, it brings down the Communist party and brings about democracy in China.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The people down the block from me are Chinese.  Should I be worried?  

As for other parts of China breaking away, I'd like to see some of the non-Chinese parts break away.  Like Tibet.  

Hankuang, on Mar 14 2005, 08:15 AM, said:

Nonny said:

You don't always get what you want. I hope China doesn't get Taiwan.

As for "what it needs to become," why does it have to destroy Taiwan to do that? Why can't it just become "what it needs to become" on its own?
Why didn't the Union forces just let the Confederates just leave and form their own country?

I hope China does get Taiwan, but that it happens peacefully and only after China has become a democracy. I hope Taiwan reunifies with China on its own accord and with both sides eager to do so. I think this law will help preserve the status quo until this happens. I don't believe China will destroy Taiwan, it may attack it and invade, but they won't destroy it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Would that be when pigs fly?  It's a nice thought, but I doubt the Taiwanese see the possibility of China becoming a democracy any time soon.  

Nonny
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#12 Han

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:31 AM

Quote

The people down the block from me are Chinese.  Should I be worried? 

What's that supposed to mean?

Quote

Why didn't the Union forces just let the Confederates just leave and form their own country?

I hope China does get Taiwan, but that it happens peacefully and only after China has become a democracy. I hope Taiwan reunifies with China on its own accord and with both sides eager to do so. I think this law will help preserve the status quo until this happens. I don't believe China will destroy Taiwan, it may attack it and invade, but they won't destroy it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Quote

Would that be when pigs fly?  It's a nice thought, but I doubt the Taiwanese see the possibility of China becoming a democracy any time soon. 

Nonny

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


You may not believe it, but I do. And I'm not the only one. I know its not a popular opinion, but I believe it and will continue to do so.

Edited by Hankuang, 14 March 2005 - 11:32 AM.

Han

#13 Zwolf

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:33 AM

Quote

Why didn't the Union forces just let the Confederates just leave and form their own country?

****** I hope I don't cause any thread-drift, but much of the reason for that is that we (the South) would have had control of the Mississippi River, and would have still held the best agricultural land.  All the North really had was industry... and we could've built those.  They needed us more than we needed them... :)

I'm not sure, but does Taiwan control anything that is of strategic importance to China, or have some valuable natural resources?   I know there's a lot of manufacturing there, and some important ports... that could be more motivation than just trying to maintain unity.

Cheers,

Zwolf
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#14 G1223

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 11:38 AM

So because Tiawan is chinese they should at gunpoint be forced to reamin a part of China?

I would accept that Chian has a right to defend itself if Taiwan attacked them. (Not like that would happen) But what about Vietnam at a point was part of China should it be made to join?  Maybe all of Korea at gunpoint should be forced to be part of a greater China?


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#15 Godeskian

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 12:24 PM

Hankuang, on Mar 14 2005, 05:15 PM, said:

And the entity known as China has been unified for a long time.

So the UK shouldn't have given back Hong Kong? After all, the Empire has to be maintained right? isn't that what you're saying?

Quote

If Taiwan permanently breaks away, it could lead to other parts of China breaking away as well.

You know, maybe there's a reason all these parts of China are trying so desperately to get away from the rest of it.

Quote

Governments come and go, but the state and entity known as China should always remain.

gotta love that imperialist thinking.

Quote

I don't believe China will destroy Taiwan, it may attack it and invade, but they won't destroy it.
I'm so glad you see the difference. I wonder if the people of Taiwan would be so understanding.

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#16 Rhea

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 12:29 PM

Taiwan is a perennial pain in the butt in the sense that they stubbornly refuse to knuckle under to the mainland. But they've been effectively separate from China for so many years that the whole thing is ludicrous.
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#17 CJ AEGIS

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 12:30 PM

China is scared and the old men are blustering again.  China lacks the amphibious capability to cross a large swimming tub against stiff opposition.  They are dreaming that they can ever manage the logistics of an operation that would make Normandy look small.  Unlike the USMC and US Navy China has none of the hard won experience of launching amphibous landings.  In the air the Air Force of Taiwan coupled with the 7th Fleet and USAF could hold the PLAAF.  We'd take losses due to sheer numbers disparity but we would win.  At sea the PLAN would have a short exciting existience measure in hours after they put out of port.  Our submarines and carriers based air would have a field day with them.

With the United States in Taiwan's corner any attempt to attack Taiwan will inflict more damage on China then the US.  The loss of trade and impact of investments China holds in the US will knock the US economy for a loop to start with.  In the long run I expect it will cause an resurgence of US manufacturing capacity as US policy makers get it driven into their heads the hard way about the danger of relying on China for goods.  Meanwhile the loss of  US, Japanese, and other regional trade will devesate the Chinese economy.

China's basic threat over the years has been “we will reducing you to a smoking ruin” without missiles.  In reality such an attack would be devastating to the economy of China since they trade so much with Taiwan and they would lose any benefit of taking Taiwan if it was a smoking ruin.  Now what has China so scared is it looks like the SM-3 is going to be a credible ABM defense system that will give Taiwan a measure of protection against the mid range to short range ballistic missiles China is threatening them with.  So they are trying to bluster like the schoolyard bully to intimdate Taiwan.

Hopefully it will backfire since there is already rumblings within the Congress that the Arleigh Burke Destroyer sale to Taiwan will go down.  Four Burke destroyers would give China a significant defense against ballistic missiles.  With that in place Taiwan will be even better protected from China even attempting to force it back into the fold via military action.  Myself I think if China keeps on threatening Taiwan like they do you'll see Taiwan quickly field nuclear weapons.

In that type of situation Taiwan can declare their indepedence show off their nukes and laugh at the then made impotent mainland.

Quote

Hankuang:
Make no mistake, Taiwan is a part of China and while it must be allowed autonomy, democracy, free speech, etc., independence is out of the question.

Hong Kong faces new political uncertainty


Quote

Officials have indicated China would prefer Tung's successor, most likely Tsang, to serve only the remainder of Tung's term in order to test him out.

As there are no legal provisions for such a move, analysts and lawyers fear China will be forced into rewriting the constitution, a risky political move that would fly in the face of the autonomy promised the city in 1997.
China is screwing Hong Kong right now once again by breaking the promise of autonomy that was promised.  The word of the goverment of China is worth nothing.

Quote

Hankuang:Reunification should be peaceful but if it fails (hopefully it won't), force will be required.
If China attempts it then I hope the US responds with every bit of military force we can muster to stop an invasion attempt.  Then once that invasion is thwarted we should place China under a naval blockade aimed at stopping the import of oil and scrap steel.  My aim would be to punish China by driving their economy into utter ruin.  It would eliminate the PRC as a economic rival and let our own economy recover some of its own manufacturing base.

If China is dumb enough to pick a war then I suggest we destroy econmicaly in a manner that will make the collapse of the Soviets look tame.  Once the mainland government falls then we'll consider reunification.
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#18 prolog

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 12:32 PM

Hankuang, on Mar 14 2005, 04:00 PM, said:

Make no mistake, Taiwan is a part of China and while it must be allowed autonomy, democracy, free speech, etc., independence is out of the question. China needs Taiwan as an example of what it needs to become. Reunification should be peaceful but if it fails (hopefully it won't), force will be required.

Bah.  Look, when the question of Quebec separation came up in referendum form a few years back, I had no problem if the "yes" vote came to pass.  Certainly, an independent Quebec would have incredible logistical hassles and such, but my basic ideological point is this: if a majority of people in a region want separation, why should their will be denied?

#19 prolog

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 12:35 PM

G1223, on Mar 14 2005, 04:38 PM, said:

So because Tiawan is chinese they should at gunpoint be forced to reamin a part of China?

I would accept that Chian has a right to defend itself if Taiwan attacked them. (Not like that would happen) But what about Vietnam at a point was part of China should it be made to join?  Maybe all of Korea at gunpoint should be forced to be part of a greater China?


This is why China is a threat to the world. It is run by a group of insular old men who are no more elected to office than was Saddam. Now I do not advocate war but I recommend being prepared to support those who wish to live free.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Well said, G.  China is little more than a dictatorship whose government is not representative of its people, and which is not accountable to its people.

#20 CJ AEGIS

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Posted 14 March 2005 - 12:40 PM

Quote

Hankuang: And the entity known as China has been unified for a long time.
Taiwan isn't part of China and was just siezed by China in response to fears over Japan moving into Formosa.  

The Dutch were actually on Taiwan long before anyone from China started to arrive in real numbers. There was no Chinese mainland administrative apparatus on the island and the only population they found was a small aboriginal population of Malay-Polynesian descent.  There was no population of Chinese on the island. It was actually the Dutch who brought in the first Chinese population from the mainland who served as laborers and then left most of the time. Eventually though some did settle under the Dutch rule of the Island and pushed aside the native population. China only took control of Taiwan when a Chinese pirate loyal to the Ching Dynasty defeated the Dutch. So China’s claim to Taiwan is based off the aggressive imperialist ambitions that the PRC government loves to rant on about.

The shortly thereafter control of the Formosa was really never asserted since the Manchu dynasty never really had an interest in Formosa. It was the Manchu dynasty in the 1870s who claimed to the United States that said Taiwan is beyond our territory when pirates captured US vessels near there. It wasn’t until 1887 that the Manchu dynasty declared Formosa a part of China. That was only an attempt to outmaneuver Japan who was showing ambition toward the territory. China only occupied the territory for 8 years before Japan defeated China in the Sino-Japanese War and in the Treaty of Shimonoseki, China ceded Taiwan to Japan in perpetuity. Japan then went on to take over Taiwan in much the same way that China first controlled it through aggressive force. Except the Japanese controlled Taiwan far longer...

So if China’s case for Taiwan belonging to them is that they had it first than that is false because the Dutch had it first. And if the claim is that they controlled it for 8 years after taking it by military force well Japan did the exact same thing and controlled it longer. So exactly how does China have a long historical claim on Taiwan or is it just the goverment of the PRC is far more prone to staging hissy fits than the government of the Netherlands or Japan?

Edited by CJ AEGIS, 14 March 2005 - 12:43 PM.

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