Spectacles, on Aug 29 2005, 01:51 AM, said:
Anakam: Actually, what I think they should have been doing was not have a situation where the mayor of New Orleans is worried about liability should he order an evacuation and nothing happen...
Oh for Pete's sake....Is that why he waited until late this morning? I had wondered about that.
He was checking into the legalities of stepping up from voluntary to mandatory last night. Liability for closing businesses, etc was mentioned.
Spectacles, on Aug 29 2005, 01:54 AM, said:
Shoshana, on Aug 28 2005, 07:41 PM, said:
I know people at other boards who have been thru Betsy, Audrey and Camille (weathercasters, military) and Katrina has got them really scared...
What's worrying me, among many things right now, is how deep New Orleans will flood. If the pumping equipment is submerged, one estimate has the city flooded for six months.
I'd heard of large areas around New Orleans (along the MS and AL coasts also) being unlivable for weeks, with some industries out for six months. No specific numbers on water depth except 'several feet'. However, at ten feet below sea level (lowest parts), with Lake Pontchartrain to the north being higher and quite large, and lakes to the east and northwest, then the Mississippi to the south, I'd have to guess something more than ten feet, possibly 20 feet in some areas, with major damage to the delta and marshes as the surge comes in and then the water goes back down (because they may be taking some of the brunt of it). The worst-case for flooding isn't the levees breaking; it's only a few spots giving way, and then the water can't go back out very fast. This is without me knowing the depth of the lakes... ah, good, Pontchartrain is 12-14 feet deep for the most part. That's still an exceptionally large volume of water, but it's better than, say, 100 feet deep.
Rhiannonjk, on Aug 29 2005, 02:03 AM, said:
Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel, who's out in Biloxi, was getting pretty upset (for him) about people who didn't seem to be paying attention to the evacuations and were just driving around
I have some love for Jim right now. He's hot, and he's blunt. Earlier today he said "If you aren't scared, you're stupid."
Ah, I missed that, I think. But he was just wondering what was the matter with people that they were getting on gridlocked highways, and, indeed, even driving that close to the ocean with a Cat 5 coming at 'em.
And let's not talk about his possible response to the young couple in New Orleans proper who are staying and aren't sure what to expect.
CJ AEGIS, on Aug 29 2005, 03:34 AM, said:
Anakam: CJ, I'm pretty confused on how they're doing this; they've already drafted urban S&R teams from as far away as New York, supposedly, but that's for after landfall. I know that this caught people by surprise, but someone at FEMA was saying they'd been working on scenarios for a horrific storm like this for years, so... I'm still wondering about things like people being directed away from roads that are going to get hit first. People are still driving along a beachfront road in Biloxi, MS, with winds and waves picking up.
They show all the footage yet you see minimal personnel out in terms of the Police, Disaster Management, or National Guard. It seems like they are so focused on the aftermath that they aren't thinking well in terms of dealing with the evacuation. They should have the police and National Guard out in force directing traffic and keeping the roads under control. They should be using military assets or public transportation to get people clear of the city. Send out as many as possible by the roads and airlift out what you can on top of that. If you need to use the airports on top of helicopters. The whole Superdome idea is smacking of disaster. Even if the thing survives the storm how do you get those people out before lack of water, food, and sanitation starts killing them. You can't airlift out that many people when your most likely landing zones will be flooded. You are looking at a winch operation and that is a nightmare with that many people. You'd never do it. Taking them out in small boats through a flooded city would be another nightmare.
On top of that as far as I know they still have not deployed either hospital ship. Some good news on seaborne relief is at least on LHA is somewhere along the East Coast. A carrier or two should be available too if they are needed since they are along the East Coast at this time. My bet would be on the PR.
I think you should have been coordinating this, CJ. And there have been comments about what the Superdome's actual wind rating is.
Nick, on Aug 29 2005, 03:46 AM, said:
Be realistic, CJ. The death toll from the storm itself is going to be but a fraction of the aftermath. Think about the tsunamis. The death toll from the actual event will pale in comparison. New Orleans *will* be flooded. The waters *will* be noxious, and those tens of thousands in the shelters of last resort will be sealed in with little to no ability for releif efforts to get to them. The city will be uninhabitable for weeks at best, months in reality.
A nuclear weapon in the french quarer would do less damage.
Atomic or hydrogen, Nick?
No, really, with an eye that big across (40-45 miles), I can see the comparison.
I suspect that there's going to be discussion on how to do this better, because for all of FEMA's talk of getting ready for this, I'm not really seeing much. As several people put it today, people got out of bed down there this morning and went 'oh no' and packed up and left. Not what works best.
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