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Hurricane Katrina

Katrina 2005

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#41 Rhiannonjk

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 08:03 PM

Quote

Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel, who's out in Biloxi, was getting pretty upset (for him) about people who didn't seem to be paying attention to the evacuations and were just driving around

I have some love for Jim right now.  He's hot, and he's blunt.  Earlier today he said "If you aren't scared, you're stupid."

Spectacles, on Aug 28 2005, 08:51 PM, said:

What I find terribly sad are the elderly and infirm and poor children who are being herded into the Superdome, which may or may not withstand the winds. God, we'd better hope that thing holds up....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

when they first mentioned this, my dad and I were looking at each other like "WTF?"  The last place I would want to be is the superdome.  

OK, maybe not the last place, but it wouldn't be my top choice.  

A doomsday situation was prepared for NO a while back, that the levees would fail, the city would flood, and it would take 6 months to get it livable again.  
This was in the event of a CATAGORY 3 storm.  

The water will not pass over the levees, the levees will most likely come down and leave New Orleans at the bottom of Lake Ponchetrain (sp?)

One station defined "catastrophic" earlier today - any wooden buildings will be gone, skyscrapers will fall, cars will fly around.  

It will be bad.

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#42 Shalamar

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 08:14 PM

and that hack Geraldo Rivera was just scareing the hell out of every one with the vivid descriptions of whats coming up - I know we need to know the hard facts, but sheesh to take such damn glee in it!

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#43 CJ AEGIS

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 09:34 PM

Quote

Anakam: CJ, I'm pretty confused on how they're doing this; they've already drafted urban S&R teams from as far away as New York, supposedly, but that's for after landfall. I know that this caught people by surprise, but someone at FEMA was saying they'd been working on scenarios for a horrific storm like this for years, so... I'm still wondering about things like people being directed away from roads that are going to get hit first. People are still driving along a beachfront road in Biloxi, MS, with winds and waves picking up.
They show all the footage yet you see minimal personnel out in terms of the Police, Disaster Management, or National Guard.  It seems like they are so focused on the aftermath that they aren't thinking well in terms of dealing with the evacuation.  They should have the police and National Guard out in force directing traffic and keeping the roads under control.  They should be using military assets or public transportation to get people clear of the city.  Send out as many as possible by the roads and airlift out what you can on top of that.  If you need to use the airports on top of helicopters.  The whole Superdome idea is smacking of disaster.  Even if the thing survives the storm how do you get those people out before lack of water, food, and sanitation starts killing them.  You can't airlift out that many people when your most likely landing zones will be flooded.  You are looking at a winch operation and that is a nightmare with that many people.  You'd never do it.  Taking them out in small boats through a flooded city would be another nightmare.  

On top of that as far as I know they still have not deployed either hospital ship.  Some good news on seaborne relief is at least on LHA is somewhere along the East Coast.  A carrier or two should be available too if they are needed since they are along the East Coast at this time.  My bet would be on the PR.
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#44 Nick

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 09:46 PM

Be realistic, CJ.  The death toll from the storm itself is going to be but a fraction of the aftermath.  Think about the tsunamis.  The death toll from the actual event will pale in comparison.  New Orleans *will* be flooded.  The waters *will* be noxious, and those tens of thousands in the shelters of last resort will be sealed in with little to no ability for releif efforts to get to them.  The city will be uninhabitable for weeks at best, months in reality.

A nuclear weapon in the french quarer would do less damage.

-Nick

Edited by Nick, 28 August 2005 - 09:47 PM.


#45 Anakam

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 10:12 PM

Spectacles, on Aug 29 2005, 01:51 AM, said:

Quote

Anakam: Actually, what I think they should have been doing was not have a situation where the mayor of New Orleans is worried about liability should he order an evacuation and nothing happen... :wacko:

Oh for Pete's sake....Is that why he waited until late this morning? I had wondered about that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


He was checking into the legalities of stepping up from voluntary to mandatory last night.  Liability for closing businesses, etc was mentioned.

Spectacles, on Aug 29 2005, 01:54 AM, said:

Shoshana, on Aug 28 2005, 07:41 PM, said:

I know people at other boards who have been thru Betsy, Audrey and Camille (weathercasters, military) and Katrina has got them really scared...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


What's worrying me, among many things right now, is how deep New Orleans will flood. If the pumping equipment is submerged, one estimate has the city flooded for six months.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I'd heard of large areas around New Orleans (along the MS and AL coasts also) being unlivable for weeks, with some industries out for six months.  No specific numbers on water depth except 'several feet'.  However, at ten feet below sea level (lowest parts), with Lake Pontchartrain to the north being higher and quite large, and lakes to the east and northwest, then the Mississippi to the south, I'd have to guess something more than ten feet, possibly 20 feet in some areas, with major damage to the delta and marshes as the surge comes in and then the water goes back down (because they may be taking some of the brunt of it).  The worst-case for flooding isn't the levees breaking; it's only a few spots giving way, and then the water can't go back out very fast.  This is without me knowing the depth of the lakes... ah, good, Pontchartrain is 12-14 feet deep for the most part.  That's still an exceptionally large volume of water, but it's better than, say, 100 feet deep.

Rhiannonjk, on Aug 29 2005, 02:03 AM, said:

Quote

Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel, who's out in Biloxi, was getting pretty upset (for him) about people who didn't seem to be paying attention to the evacuations and were just driving around

I have some love for Jim right now.  He's hot, and he's blunt.  Earlier today he said "If you aren't scared, you're stupid."

Ah, I missed that, I think.  But he was just wondering what was the matter with people that they were getting on gridlocked highways, and, indeed, even driving that close to the ocean with a Cat 5 coming at 'em.

And let's not talk about his possible response to the young couple in New Orleans proper who are staying and aren't sure what to expect.


CJ AEGIS, on Aug 29 2005, 03:34 AM, said:

Quote

Anakam: CJ, I'm pretty confused on how they're doing this; they've already drafted urban S&R teams from as far away as New York, supposedly, but that's for after landfall. I know that this caught people by surprise, but someone at FEMA was saying they'd been working on scenarios for a horrific storm like this for years, so... I'm still wondering about things like people being directed away from roads that are going to get hit first. People are still driving along a beachfront road in Biloxi, MS, with winds and waves picking up.
They show all the footage yet you see minimal personnel out in terms of the Police, Disaster Management, or National Guard.  It seems like they are so focused on the aftermath that they aren't thinking well in terms of dealing with the evacuation.  They should have the police and National Guard out in force directing traffic and keeping the roads under control.  They should be using military assets or public transportation to get people clear of the city.  Send out as many as possible by the roads and airlift out what you can on top of that.  If you need to use the airports on top of helicopters.  The whole Superdome idea is smacking of disaster.  Even if the thing survives the storm how do you get those people out before lack of water, food, and sanitation starts killing them.  You can't airlift out that many people when your most likely landing zones will be flooded.  You are looking at a winch operation and that is a nightmare with that many people.  You'd never do it.  Taking them out in small boats through a flooded city would be another nightmare.  

On top of that as far as I know they still have not deployed either hospital ship.  Some good news on seaborne relief is at least on LHA is somewhere along the East Coast.  A carrier or two should be available too if they are needed since they are along the East Coast at this time.  My bet would be on the PR.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I think you should have been coordinating this, CJ.  And there have been comments about what the Superdome's actual wind rating is.

Nick, on Aug 29 2005, 03:46 AM, said:

Be realistic, CJ.  The death toll from the storm itself is going to be but a fraction of the aftermath.  Think about the tsunamis.  The death toll from the actual event will pale in comparison.  New Orleans *will* be flooded.  The waters *will* be noxious, and those tens of thousands in the shelters of last resort will be sealed in with little to no ability for releif efforts to get to them.  The city will be uninhabitable for weeks at best, months in reality.

A nuclear weapon in the french quarer would do less damage.

-Nick

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Atomic or hydrogen, Nick? :devil:

No, really, with an eye that big across (40-45 miles), I can see the comparison.

I suspect that there's going to be discussion on how to do this better, because for all of FEMA's talk of getting ready for this, I'm not really seeing much.  As several people put it today, people got out of bed down there this morning and went 'oh no' and packed up and left.  Not what works best.
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#46 Hibblette

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 10:22 PM

This is a bad one.

I grew up some in North Louisiana and even there you have it drilled into your head about how New Orleans is below sea level.  

I'm very worried.
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#47 Natolii

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 10:26 PM

Okay...

National Guard is waiting out the storm in Bouregard... According to my Friend in the Lousiana Guard. They were mobilized and moving as of 12pm CDT Yesterday. 4 Major highways out of New Orleans were converted to One way only... OUT. Only I-19 is reporting major delays at this point.

National Guard is urging anyone that is left behind to head over to the Superdome. Survival chances outside the Superdome are rated at 10%. LSU simulations are predicting 60 to 80% of the homes in the area will be destroyed.

So stop saying what the National Guard should have done, when you guys don't know the facts. My friend had to travel from the Munroe area to the New Orleans Area... 8 hour trip. It would have taken them some time just to MOBILIZE... and they started yesterday.

Do you know how hard it is on them when there is really very little that can be done? TM (nick Thrashman) called his brother and relayed this bit of news.

As for Airlines... All flights were cancelled, all rental cars sold-out, no taxies... which is why Hotels were exempted from the Evacuation. You already have Northwest Airlines mechanics on a strike since 8/20 and they had to start a reduced flight schedule a few weeks early.
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#48 jon3831

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 10:32 PM

Yeesh.

Couple links for perusal:

Thinking Big About Hurricanes

Quote

In the event of a slow-moving Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane (with winds up to or exceeding 155 miles per hour), it's possible that only those crow's nests would remain above the water level. Such a storm, plowing over the lake, could generate a 20-foot surge that would easily overwhelm the levees of New Orleans, which only protect against a hybrid Category 2 or Category 3 storm (with winds up to about 110 miles per hour and a storm surge up to 12 feet). Soon the geographical "bowl" of the Crescent City would fill up with the waters of the lake, leaving those unable to evacuate with little option but to cluster on rooftops -- terrain they would have to share with hungry rats, fire ants, nutria, snakes, and perhaps alligators. The water itself would become a festering stew of sewage, gasoline, refinery chemicals, and debris.

This from May of this year.


Also:

Area Forecast Discussion

Quote

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE WORST CAN BE ANTICIPATED AND URGENCY IS
BEING STRESSED IN ALL PRODUCTS AS A WORST CASE HURRICANE SCENARIO
FOR THIS VERY FRAGILE AND VULNERABLE STRETCH OF U.S. COASTLINE.

Quote

MOST ATTENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS DAY 1-2 WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES MADE BEYOND DAY 3. GOOD LUCK AND GODSPEED TO ALL IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.


So say we all.
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#49 Nonprofit

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 10:41 PM

Quote

Anakam Posted Today, 10:12 PM
I suspect that there's going to be discussion on how to do this better, because for all of FEMA's talk of getting ready for this, I'm not really seeing much. As several people put it today, people got out of bed down there this morning and went 'oh no' and packed up and left. Not what works best.

Don't you think the folks should have said 'oh no' on Friday when the weather reports were saying how wide Katrina was, that she was picking up speed aready a Catagory 3, moving very fast and where she was going to hit.  That would have been a good time for the good folks to start leaving town instead of on Sunday.  This mentality of people waiting until the end to leave, what the heck is that all about?

Yes,  I feel terrible about seeing all of them waiting on the highways, standing in line to get into the dome.....but......What were they doing on Friday and Saturday?

Quote

Shalamar Posted Today, 08:14 PM
  and that hack Geraldo Rivera was just scareing the hell out of every one with the vivid descriptions of whats coming up - I know we need to know the hard facts, but sheesh to take such damn glee in it!

This was a big mistake.   They should have had the "hack" on Friday night and Saturday all day long in the target area to freak those people out of their houses and up to higher ground.  

May God put his hand over the region and protect them all from the dangers of the storm.

RuReddy

#50 Natolii

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 10:52 PM

Well, Ru, I know what some people were doing. Making arrangements for shelter.

I've got friends there and they were talking with other friends plus getting their family packed up. We are talking about an older gentleman, a 14 yr old child with Graves, the Child's mother who suffers from MS and the Child's aunt who is disabled due to a shattered kneecap.

The good news is that they have made it to their destination safely up north.
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#51 Nonprofit

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 11:18 PM

Quote

Natolii Posted Today, 10:52 PM
  Well, Ru, I know what some people were doing. Making arrangements for shelter.

I've got friends there and they were talking with other friends plus getting their family packed up. We are talking about an older gentleman, a 14 yr old child with Graves, the Child's mother who suffers from MS and the Child's aunt who is disabled due to a shattered kneecap.

The good news is that they have made it to their destination safely up north.

Thanks for sharing the great news with us!!!  
Very nice to know that your  friends made it to the safe zone. May they continue to be safe, while the storm passes over.

RuReddy

#52 Anarch

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 11:23 PM

If you're looking for something specific to pray for, there's a low-pressure front moving into the Gulf over Texas that could conceivably take the edge off Katrina before she makes landfall.  OTOH, the front could act as an accelerator (see The Perfect Storm)...

Regardless, a few important points for those of us well away from ground zero:

1) The best donations are cold, hard cash -- or the electronic equivalent -- not cans or other things.  It's fungible, portable and allows the logistical experts to get materials to the site ASAP.

2) The bulk of the casualties won't happen tonight or tomorrow; they'll happen over the next month or so between stagnant water, potential cholera/diphtheria/dystentery outbreaks (and I think NOLA's in the basin for the really vicious brands of cholera), water poisoning, sepsis and all the rest of that good post-disaster stuff.  It's vitally important that people not stop donating once the "sexiness" of the damage is over; only when the area's safe and secure -- which, as Nick noted above, could be up to six months from now -- can we breathe easy.

Godspeed, New Orleans.  I wish I'd gotten off my duff to visit you; now, I just want as many of your wonderful people to survive as possible.  Godspeed.

#53 Anarch

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 11:27 PM

In further bad news, Katrina's gusts are at 200 mph; 30' swells are being reported off Victoria (? whatever that southernmost city is); and Weather Underground is predicting a 70% chance of the levees being breached.

Oh, and there's a tornado watch in Orleans parish.  Not to mention the fun with oil refineries and Chemical Alley (I think that's what it's called).  Incidentally, best advice at a personal level I can give to those away from ground zero: tomorrow morning, fill your gas tank ASAP.  Maybe even get another gallon of gas or two.  Losing the refining capacity of the Gulf is gonna be one hell of a shock, and that's assuming that we have enough capacity to brace for the load.

This one's gonna hurt.

#54 Cheile

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 11:33 PM

RuReddy1, on Aug 28 2005, 08:41 PM, said:

May God put his hand over the region and protect them all from the dangers of the storm.

RuReddy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


amen, Ru.  all Islers anywhere NEAR this stay safe, please.

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#55 eloisel

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Posted 28 August 2005 - 11:42 PM

The good news - Geraldo Rivera is on the scene at the Superdome.

The bad news, of the hundreds of web cams in New Orleans, I'm not finding a working one, not even the State department's cams.

May they all be safe.

#56 Natolii

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Posted 29 August 2005 - 12:16 AM

Mayor Nagin is not saying 70% percent chance that the Levees will be breached. He's saying 100%... LSU is running sims now that are showing 60 to 80% of the homes will be destroyed.

This storm is driving squall lines as far north as Georgia currently. Plus it is hitting a pocket where, while it may slow down, It may also get a lot bigger.

A majority of BHO (My RPing group) is based in Lousiana with two of the girls in New Orleans. They were the ones that evacuated. DebbieM and Netherworks Studios have also evacuated ahead of the storm (Artists).

It's a very scary situation.

:down:
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#57 Kevin Street

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Posted 29 August 2005 - 12:19 AM

eloisel said:

The bad news, of the hundreds of web cams in New Orleans, I'm not finding a working one, not even the State department's cams.

(Via Metafilter.)

http://www.wwltv.com...&props=livenoad

wwltv.com, it looks like a live stream of a New Orleans CBS station.
Per aspera ad astra

#58 Anarch

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Posted 29 August 2005 - 12:23 AM

I'm pretty sure WWLTV got moved to Baton Rouge for the duration; I haven't heard of any surviving webcams or coverage from NO proper, except a few professionals (read: Weather Channel) reporting from the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain and a few lunatics (read: Geraldo et al.) reporting from hotels, the Superdome &c

#59 Kevin Street

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Posted 29 August 2005 - 12:29 AM

Anarch, on Aug 28 2005, 11:23 PM, said:

I'm pretty sure WWLTV got moved to Baton Rouge for the duration

Glad to hear it! No one should still be there right now.

I hope this turns out to be a huge near-miss. But it's not looking good at the moment.

#60 D'Monix

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Posted 29 August 2005 - 12:32 AM

hehe officials are promising that scam artists and gougers preying on their citizens in this disaster will be tossed in the hoosegow with little to no warning.

zero tolerance for that behaviour.



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