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Time to stop the fueding over Katrina and

Katrina

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#1 Natolii

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 02:36 PM

It's forming close to where Katrina formed folks...

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#2 Spectacles

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 03:49 PM

Man, I hope we don't get hit with a Cat 3 or higher. Unfortunately, chances are we will before November.

Edited by Spectacles, 18 September 2005 - 03:50 PM.

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#3 Call Me Robin

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 04:37 PM

Oh no!  Not again!  

:(
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#4 Lin731

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 04:38 PM

Specs, is it just me or are you guys getting ALOT more hurricanes than normal? I mean I understand they run in cycles but damn, this seems beyond the normal uptick.
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#5 HubcapDave

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 04:45 PM

TD 18 is now Tropical Storm Rita. It look likely to hit either Texas or Mexico.

#6 Spectacles

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 05:42 PM

Lin731, on Sep 18 2005, 04:38 PM, said:

Specs, is it just me or are you guys getting ALOT more hurricanes than normal? I mean I understand they run in cycles but damn, this seems beyond the normal uptick.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Hey Lin,

Well, I'm not in the direct path anymore since I live in PA (though we do get the remnants sometimes like everyone else in the northeast and midwest), but, yeah, the Gulf Coast has been hammered the past two years, more than I ever recall.

I shudder to think of another one making landfall on top of the already devastated LA-Miss-AL coast....
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#7 Natolii

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 07:12 PM

Katrina was tracking towards Mexico & Texas and then did a sharp turn at the last minute.

That track is only a forecast and that is not accurate this far out.
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#8 Godeskian

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 07:41 PM

I really don't think the US gulf coast can handle another severe weather disruption right now.

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#9 Nick

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 08:06 PM

^No, the Gulf coast can't.  But we've gotta face the music--it'll get worse before it gets better.  There are several cycles at play here.  It just happens that conditions have matched them all together all at once.

We've seen an increase in hurricane activity (we're not quite in "peak" hurricane season, yet we're already past the letter "p").  And we've also seen a gradual eastward shift of the average storm path.

Four hurricanes hit Florida last year.  Three came through Orlando (thank God we're pretty inland and didn't feel the worst!) and one hit my folks & family in Pensacola.

In years past, we'd have lots of storms--but they'd all blow out to sea.  The winds have shifted and couple that with more active hurricane seasons . . .

It's gonna happen.  It'll continue to happen.  Best we can do is plan for the worst, cross our fingers, and hope for the best. :(

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#10 D'Monix

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 11:16 PM

Hurricanes have a nasty habit of turning north, let's hope this one doesnt do that at the point where it would roll right over the disaster area.

#11 UoR11

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Posted 18 September 2005 - 11:28 PM

I'm going to talk a couple of my roommates into getting into thier homes in NO, which were unharmed, and get anything left in them out. The levees are hlding around New Orleans, but they're in pretty bad shape, and anything at all big could crash them all. On the plus side, if they have to re-evacuate the people who are let back in, I think the people will listen this time.
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#12 shambalayogi

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Posted 19 September 2005 - 10:03 AM

Lin731, on Sep 18 2005, 02:38 PM, said:

Specs, is it just me or are you guys getting ALOT more hurricanes than normal? I mean I understand they run in cycles but damn, this seems beyond the normal uptick.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

:eek2: I believe in the past few years the number has increased a lot.  I can't tell you why or where I've read that except that after Ivan last year there were articles about increasing storms and more hurricanes in our local paper.  

Even if this misses Katrina's hit it will still be bad.  If it rolled over Katrina's area it would be that much more devastating to people psychologically and what little is left there to destroy.    :(

Edited by shambalayogi, 19 September 2005 - 10:06 AM.

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#13 Spectacles

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Posted 19 September 2005 - 02:04 PM

Damn it.

It looks like this thing is going to strengthen rapidy and several models have it headed for the Louisiana coast.

Oh well. At least it will stop Nagin from insanely encouraging people to return to a city that is contaminated and without hospitals and other essential services.
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#14 Corwin

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Posted 19 September 2005 - 02:33 PM

shambalayogi, on Sep 19 2005, 10:03 AM, said:

:eek2: I believe in the past few years the number has increased a lot.  I can't tell you why or where I've read that except that after Ivan last year there were articles about increasing storms and more hurricanes in our local paper. 

Yes, they have been increasing in both number and force.  For the past few years we have been in a higher risk of this due to global weather patterns.

The last time it was like this was in the 40's and 50's from what meteorologists are saying.

And yes, Cat 4 storms have hit the Texas Gulf Coast on occasion.. usually about once every 20-30 years.

Corwin
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#15 HubcapDave

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Posted 19 September 2005 - 03:07 PM

Spectacles, on Sep 19 2005, 12:04 PM, said:

Damn it.

It looks like this thing is going to strengthen rapidy and several models have it headed for the Louisiana coast.

Oh well. At least it will stop Nagin from insanely encouraging people to return to a city that is contaminated and without hospitals and other essential services.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


http://www.wundergro...0518_model.html

most models have it hitting Texas somewhere around Houston.

#16 Corwin

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Posted 19 September 2005 - 03:11 PM

You can put me on record for this if we have a betting pool going.  I think it'll hit South of here between Port Aransas and Corpus Christi.. which means those of us here in Houston could still get a decent amount of rain.

Corwin
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#17 Kosh

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Posted 19 September 2005 - 03:48 PM

National Geographic

http://www7.national.../0508/feature4/



Quote

The hurricane glut is happening at the same time sea levels continue to rise—the result of global warming that most scientists blame in part on human activity. A recent study using the latest computer climate models predicts warming of the tropical sea surface will strengthen hurricane winds and rainfall by the end of the 21st century. However, some experts, including Gray, argue that climate change due to human activity will not significantly affect hurricanes.

That debate will continue, but many scientists agree that the present hurricane surge is likely part of a 60-to-70-year cycle that changes the strength of ocean currents distributing heat around the globe. Researchers have used tree rings and ice cores to track this variability back hundreds of years. We're now in a fast-flowing mode of this up-and-down cycle, named the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), during which Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and wind conditions favor hurricane generation. Ten years from now, or perhaps thirty (the timetable is difficult to predict), the cycle should reverse, tending to suppress major hurricanes.

Why the variation? "Frankly, no one can say with 100 percent certainty, but it appears to be a natural effect," says Thomas Delworth, a climate modeler at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. Delworth is part of a major scientific effort to develop accurate computer climate models, and much of his work focuses on thermohaline circulation—that is, the way ocean currents, and consequently such cycles as the AMO, are driven by heat and salinity.


We are also in a cycle where the Sun has put out more crap than usual, which some say is the reason the planet has had a tempeture rise, which would almost have to effect the Seas.
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