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UK expert blames Rita on.......

Natural Disasters Hurricane Rita 2005

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#1 Corwin

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 09:03 AM

http://news.independ...ticle314510.ece

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Super-powerful hurricanes now hitting the United States are the "smoking gun" of global warming, one of Britain's leading scientists believes.

The growing violence of storms such as Katrina, which wrecked New Orleans, and Rita, now threatening Texas, is very probably caused by climate change, said Sir John Lawton, chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution. Hurricanes were getting more intense, just as computer models predicted they would, because of the rising temperature of the sea, he said. "The increased intensity of these kinds of extreme storms is very likely to be due to global warming."

In a series of outspoken comments - a thinly veiled attack on the Bush administration, Sir John hit out at neoconservatives in the US who still deny the reality of climate change.

Referring to the arrival of Hurricane Rita he said: "If this makes the climate loonies in the States realise we've got a problem, some good will come out of a truly awful situation." As he spoke, more than a million people were fleeing north away from the coast of Texas as Rita, one of the most intense storms on record, roared through the Gulf of Mexico. It will probably make landfall tonight or early tomorrow near Houston, America's fourth largest city and the centre of its oil industry. Highways leading inland from Houston were clogged with traffic for up to 100 miles north.

There are real fears that Houston could suffer as badly from Rita just as New Orleans suffered from Hurricane Katrina less than a month ago.

Asked what conclusion the Bush administration should draw from two hurricanes of such high intensity hitting the US in quick succession, Sir John said: "If what looks like is going to be a horrible mess causes the extreme sceptics about climate change in the US to reconsider their opinion, that would be an extremely valuable outcome."
Asked about characterising them as "loonies", he said: "There are a group of people in various parts of the world ... who simply don't want to accept human activities can change climate and are changing the climate."

"I'd liken them to the people who denied that smoking causes lung cancer."

With his comments, Sir John becomes the third of the leaders of Britain's scientific establishment to attack the US over the Bush government's determination to cast doubt on global warming as a real phenomenon.

Sir John's comments follow and support recent research, much of it from America itself, showing that hurricanes are getting more violent and suggesting climate change is the cause.

A paper by US researchers, last week in the US journal Science, showed that storms of the intensity of Hurricane Katrina have become almost twice as common in the past 35 years.

Although the overall frequency of tropical storms worldwide has remained broadly level since 1970, the number of extreme category 4 and 5 events has sharply risen. In the 1970s, there was an average of about 10 category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year but, since 1990, they have nearly doubled to an average of about 18 a year. During the same period, sea surface temperatures, among the key drivers of hurricane intensity, have increased by an average of 0.5C (0.9F).

Sir John said: "Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun. It's a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes."


Their is NO doubt that there is global warming... If there wasn't we'd be living on a big ice ball.  Based on records, we have been in a higher storm cycle for the past few years.  The last time this happened was in the 50's and 60's.  And we've only been keeping reliable records since about 1930.

And they call this science?  I think I'll stick with my alchemy set.....  It's more realistic.

ARGH!!!   I can't go on.. My Eyes!  My Eyes!!!!!

Corwin
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#2 Enkanowen

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:06 AM

Hey, I actually had this discussion with a friend last night. There is no excuse for ignoring the terrible repercussions global climate changes are bringing to us due to higher emissions. No wait, there is a perfectly good excuse: money.

#3 Tom Sawyer

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:10 AM

Actually Corwin, we've been keeping some pretty good weather records since 1850 here in the US.  That's also about the time the current warming trend started.

Current warming.  Frack...I wish I had the time right now to go on a rant about that and the absolute reactionary junk science that's being practiced right now, but I've got a trip to make.
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#4 Rhiannonjk

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:11 AM

there is a nice story about this as well on The Weather Channel Blog

You can also find Jim Cantore apologizing for the fact that his viewers were witness to a dog getting hit by a car during one of his live broadcasts as well.

***Is easily distracted***


#5 Corwin

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:17 AM

who's ignoring it?  First and 2nd world countries are lowering their emissions. Developing 3rd world countries are the ones that have very little or no pollution controls.  What is pure folly and pure egotism is to say that global warming is caused predominantly by human influences.... This is the height of arrogance and irresponsibility... and doesn't do anything to address the issue or to provide logical and science-based solutions.

Corwin
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#6 sierraleone

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:17 AM

Were there records the last time we had heightened hurricane activity on how many cat 4 and 5s we had then?
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#7 sierraleone

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:19 AM

Corwin, on Sep 23 2005, 11:17 AM, said:

who's ignoring it?  First and 2nd world countries are lowering their emissions. Developing 3rd world countries are the ones that have very little or no pollution controls.  What is pure folly and pure egotism is to say that global warming is caused predominantly by human influences.... This is the height of arrogance and irresponsibility... and doesn't do anything to address the issue or to provide logical and science-based solutions.

Corwin

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Isn't there reason other than global warning (whether or not true) to lower emissions? Most emmisions are health hazards in and of themselves are they not?
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#8 Corwin

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:21 AM

CoyoteUgly, on Sep 23 2005, 10:10 AM, said:

Actually Corwin, we've been keeping some pretty good weather records since 1850 here in the US.  That's also about the time the current warming trend started.


I was actually talking about the storm category levels and reliability of temperature readings and rainfall amounts more than anything else.  I know that records went back further than that, but am not sure about how reliable they are regarding storm sizes and strength.

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#9 Lin731

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:27 AM

As I understand it, this is part of a large, cyclical weather pattern that occurs at intervals. Now having said that...That DOESN'T negate the possibility that global warming is having an impact on the severity of these storms. IF (and I believe it does) but IF our emmissions are causing an increase in temperatures than it stands to reason that we ARE impacting on the weather patterns and storm severity. The warmer the water, the more power tropical storms can draw from it.
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#10 Corwin

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 10:32 AM

sierraleone, on Sep 23 2005, 10:19 AM, said:

Corwin, on Sep 23 2005, 11:17 AM, said:

who's ignoring it? First and 2nd world countries are lowering their emissions. Developing 3rd world countries are the ones that have very little or no pollution controls. What is pure folly and pure egotism is to say that global warming is caused predominantly by human influences.... This is the height of arrogance and irresponsibility... and doesn't do anything to address the issue or to provide logical and science-based solutions.

Corwin

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Isn't there reason other than global warning (whether or not true) to lower emissions? Most emmisions are health hazards in and of themselves are they not?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Absolutely!  And I competely agree with lowering emissions for just those reasons.  But you cannot change industry overnight, just as it was not created overnight.  Keep in mind though that nature pollutes itself quite well without our added help.  Both ozone and airborne creosote are natural byproducts of certain kinds of trees.  East Texas in particular does not meet Federal Clean Air Standards because of the ozone levels....  But, even if no cars or industry was in that area, it still wouldn't meet the standards because of all the Pine trees.  The best we can do is recognize the dangers and to work towards contributing as little additional pollution as possible to the environment.  And the Federal Government for the past 30+ has recognized this and actively worked to address the issue to both maximize industry production and minimize environmental pollution.  It is a balancing act that does not always work, but we are making good progress overall.

Corwin
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#11 Zwolf

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 11:08 AM

I believe in global warming, but I don't think it's all Bush's fault.  He hasn't done as much to counter the pollution as he should (other than coming up with Orwellian names for lower-standards on factories), but global warming is such a long-term thing that there's nothing Bush could have done to stop it.  If he'd shut all the factories down completely and outlawed cars the first day he took office, we'd still have the same situations.  So, blaming him for it isn't too fair.  I blame him for his responses to the weather, but not the weather itself.

Cheers,

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#12 Tom Sawyer

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 02:43 PM

Corwin, on Sep 23 2005, 10:21 AM, said:

CoyoteUgly, on Sep 23 2005, 10:10 AM, said:

Actually Corwin, we've been keeping some pretty good weather records since 1850 here in the US.  That's also about the time the current warming trend started.


I was actually talking about the storm category levels and reliability of temperature readings and rainfall amounts more than anything else.  I know that records went back further than that, but am not sure about how reliable they are regarding storm sizes and strength.

Corwin

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Yeah, obviously we have more accurate instrumentation for measuring air pressure and all that.  If anything else, we have airplanes that can dip into the eye and take readings.  Those were pretty scarce in 1850. ;)
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#13 The Tyrant

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Posted 23 September 2005 - 03:23 PM

While I believe global warming is an issue, I have seen interviews with NOAA experts saying that we are in the upsurge of the cyclical storm cycle, and it could last up to a decade...so we're only seeing the start of all this.

#14 Tom Sawyer

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Posted 24 September 2005 - 12:57 AM

Interesting little factoid from here: http://www.cnn.com/2...ycle/index.html

Quote

Even Katrina's and Rita's back-to-back pounding of the Gulf Coast has a precedent. In 1915, Gray said, New Orleans and Houston areas were hit by Category 4 storms six weeks apart.

"You can't blame that on global warming," he observed.

The Future...Unless Things Change.

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#15 Corwin

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Posted 24 September 2005 - 09:26 AM

I really, really wish these scientists as well as the media actually use the term they really mean, "man-made global warming" (or human induced if you want to be PC about it).

No one denies that global warming and cooling happens.  What is in question is how much man-made global warming there actually is and what effect it has on the world around us.

IMHO, considering how insignificant we really are on a world-scale,  our contributions to global warming due to industrial factors are very minimal compared to what nature does to itself everyday.  It is, however, still a very important problem that needs to be addressed before the problems accelerate.  I'm much more worried about the loss of forests and rainforests in 3rd world countries, overgrazing in the same, and long-term health problems due to various environmental impacts caused by humans.

Global warming and "human caused environmental destruction" are not mutually inclusive terms, although I'm positive there are some overlaps.

Corwin
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#16 Anakam

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Posted 24 September 2005 - 11:27 AM

I'm increasingly of the opinion that we need to determine whether or not global warming is caused by humans or whether it's mostly the planet.  I'm in favor of the former, for no other reason than that it appears that we may have industries that produce carbon dioxide....

One other thing we really should do is perhaps encourage alternatives that are healthier for reasons other than someone's politics ticking us off.  Like environmentalists going extreme, that is doing NO ONE any favors at all.
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#17 Nonprofit

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Posted 27 September 2005 - 08:32 PM

Global warning , human warming???  How about this, the Sun is getting warmer causing all this warming.  Otherwise how would you explain Mars warming up?

Mars getting warmer, orbiter data suggests

Quote

Long-running observations by a NASA spacecraft orbiting Mars are revealing subtle signs of seismic activity on the Red Planet and possibly a slow warming trend, scientists said Tuesday.

Circling since September 1997, Global Surveyor is the oldest of five spacecraft four American and one European observing Mars from orbit for indications that the cold, barren planet was or is habitable.

Global Surveyor's early identification of a surface mineral that forms in water on Earth prompted NASA to select Mars' dust-covered Meridiani Planum as the landing site for the Opportunity robotic rover early last year.

The mechanical geologist soon found strong evidence of an ancient marshy shoreline.

Repeat imagery of specific locales taken by Global Surveyor's camera that were displayed at a telephone news briefing Tuesday revealed Mars may share similarities with a more geologically active Earth in other ways.

"These images reveal a dynamic surface that is of the type we might experience while hiking on the Earth," said Jack Mustard, a Brown University planetary geologist. "The difference is, this is not the Earth. This is Mars."

The imagery revealed a major rock slide along a crater wall involving a dozen large boulders between November 2003 and December 2004.

Though the rock slide could have been triggered by high winds or reverberations from a meteor impact, the most plausible explanation may be a "Mars quake" because the large boulders were dislodged from different locations on the crater wall, said San Diego researcher Mike Malin, who manages the camera system.

The observations also showed an annual 10-foot erosion in the snow cap at the South Pole.

The cap is made of frozen carbon dioxide, the chief ingredient of the Martian atmos- phere.

"The significance is that Mars is experiencing climate change, or has experienced climate change, because the present atmospheric conditions are not conducive to the formation of all that frozen carbon dioxide," Malin said. "Sometime in the distant past, Mars was colder. Subsequent to that, it has warmed, and we are seeing the earlier deposits erode away."

The scientists said the causes and time frame of the Martian climate change are not clear

I thought this was very interesting since it was found by NASA.

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