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Israel seems ready to go to war against Lebanon

Middle East 2006 Israel Lebanon Conflict

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#21 Julianus

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 08:46 AM

Now Israel has two militarily active fronts. I wonder how long they can deal with that in the face of world opinion and the and the economic and social costs?
News reports say that they have essentially knocked out Beirut's airport and that they are blockading the Lebanese coast. One report even suggested that they might try a land blockade though the geography would seem to make that extremely unlikely. Without being able to isolate the Hezbollah in Lebanon, however, I don't see that they will accomplish much.

#22 Nittany Lioness

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 09:02 AM

tennyson writes:
"My guess is that this may be more of an issue of Iran deciding to see if it can bog down Isreal in Lebanon again, and maybe get some worldwide condemantion going on there to take the focus off of Iran for a while."

That's what the pundits on some of the a.m. news programs were concluding, thus far.
But one was more ominous, with a graphic of how a nuclear hit could span the 988 miles from Iran to Israel. I gather the idea was:  the magician directing your attention to the right hand while the left does the trick.

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#23 Spectacles

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 09:08 AM

Damn. I wonder if this isn't some insane plan to give Iran an excuse to slam Israel. If Israel goes after Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria--no matter how justified it may feel in doing so--would Iran use this as an excuse to lob some missiles at Israel? Soon we'd be off and running into the worst possible scenario for the Middle East.
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#24 Spectacles

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 09:10 AM

Double damn. Lebanon is firing rockets at Israeli towns. This looks bad, folks.

Quote

In the past 24 hours, according to IDF, more than 70 Katyusha rockets have hit northern Israel.

Lebanese Interior Minister Ahmed Fatfat called the airport strikes a "general act of war," saying they had nothing to do with Hezbollah, but were instead an attack against the country's "economic interests," especially its tourism industry.

http://www.cnn.com/2...east/index.html

Edited by Spectacles, 13 July 2006 - 09:13 AM.

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#25 Godeskian

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 11:49 AM

View PostSpectacles, on Jul 13 2006, 03:10 PM, said:

Double damn. Lebanon is firing rockets at Israeli towns. This looks bad, folks.

Quote

In the past 24 hours, according to IDF, more than 70 Katyusha rockets have hit northern Israel.

Lebanese Interior Minister Ahmed Fatfat called the airport strikes a "general act of war," saying they had nothing to do with Hezbollah, but were instead an attack against the country's "economic interests," especially its tourism industry.

http://www.cnn.com/2...east/index.html


Unfortunately he has a semi-legitimate point. Hezbollah is not just going to pack up and charter a plane out of the country, and the strike against the airport was punative.

On a personal note it makes me said. I've been to Beirut, flown into the airport that has been hit, and walked and explored the city that's come under fire. I see pictures on the news and think to myself, 'Wow, I took a photo there' or 'Good food at that place' :(

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#26 CJ AEGIS

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 12:00 PM

View PostSpectacles, on Jul 13 2006, 10:08 AM, said:

Damn. I wonder if this isn't some insane plan to give Iran an excuse to slam Israel. If Israel goes after Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria--no matter how justified it may feel in doing so--would Iran use this as an excuse to lob some missiles at Israel?
That doesn't seem like a bright idea.  Since they'd either be most likely shot down by our PAC-2 or PAC-3s in Iraq or hit by the Israeli ABM systems.  So in that case it ends in embarrassment for Iran or Israel strikes back at them.  In that worse case scenario Iran ends up a radioactive wasteland.  

So while Iran may be looking to divert condemnation and attention to Iran I doubt this is some sort of insane plan to try to take out Israel.
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#27 Enmar

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 12:52 PM

In the past Katyushas only hit places within 10 km of the border. They now started firing improved long range version that can hit up to 40 km. A few minutes ago 2 rockets hit Haifa, a northern city that is about that distance from the border. This is the third largest city in Israel and has the main port and the only refinery in Israel. There's a large industrial area way too close to the city with a hell lot of dangerous substances. This is really scary.

2 people died from the rockets today, about 70 injured.  About third of the country was ordered to enter houses or bomb shelters, if they have them. In the 10 km distance from the border every single house has a well equipped bomb shelter, but others, farther away from the border don't always have them.

Israeli planes "bombed" the Hezbollah quarter in Beirut with papers advising all citizens to leave, and it was said to be a threat to warn them not to attack Haifa. Now that they have, we can probably expect a very aggressive attack on this part of Beirut. They'll probably wait until the news spread among the citizens and they run away and them attack.

Israel has no problem "fighting" both fronts. Non of those "enemies" are any real threat. Some reserve forces have been recruited, but nothing dramatic yet. The thing is the Israeli government is trying to WIN this. Not just retaliate, but create a new situation, where the people and government of Lebanon get Hezbollah out of south Lebanon and/or disarm it. This is not simple - Lebanon has a complicated politics and Hezbollah is member of the government.

On one hand - this is not a big threat. On the other hand - price of live is always high and I hope we get something good from it. The mood is really hard, everybody talks about the news all the time and we're glued to the radio and the Internet.
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#28 BklnScott

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 01:01 PM

^^^Good luck, man.  Not sure what to say about the situation.  It seems like a lose-lose to me.  Overreaction (which is how I see this) has little chance of changing the paradigm, and a good chance of uniting various factions, as well as the vast civilian populations, against Israel (to a much greater extent than they already are, that is).  Whereas a more measured reaction would just embolden the various groups to step up their aggression.  

I read something really troubling on the AP Wire: the Foreign Ministry believes that Hezbollah is attempting to export the two hostages to Iran.  If they get involved, it seems like the entire region will be at war in short order.  

One word for this: oy.

Edited by ScottEVill, 13 July 2006 - 01:02 PM.

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#29 Enmar

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 02:07 PM

Interestig update.

The rocket that landed in Haifa was not a Katyusha. It was something called Fejar  3 (sp?) made in Iran. And Israeli intelligence say they also have Fajer 5 (Iranian) BM27 (Syrian) and one battery of Iranian Zilzal 2 missiles that are capable of carying a 600kg warhead in 210 km range. That covers more than half of Israel. :eek:
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#30 Cardie

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 03:23 PM

This seems to be primarily a radical Shia stratagem to demolish what all violent radicals fear: negotiated peace.  Just as Abbas was proposing a Palestinian referendum on agreeing to a two-state solution, just as Iran was being offered a pretty good deal to stop enriching uranium, something had to be done to rekindle suspicion about and resistance to settling things with non-Muslim governments.

And since Israel is the one bogeyman that you can get the various Muslim factions to agree on as the enemy, what better than to lure them into all out war with several Muslim populations.

Israel isn't going to agree to a prisoner excange because the kidnappings will just increase, but then it's easy to paint them as vicious murderers of innocent civilians because they come in with guns blazing.  A lose-lose if there ever was one.

I do think we might eventually see Israeli airstrikes in Iran, and I think that might lead to all-out war in the region, with us squarely in the middle.

Basically, I watch the news and cry for all involved.

ETA: Be safe, Enmar.

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Edited by Cardie, 13 July 2006 - 03:24 PM.

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#31 Themis

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 03:27 PM

What Cardie said.

Keep us posted but keep yourself safe, Enmar.

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#32 Spectacles

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 03:37 PM

Quote

Cardie: Basically, I watch the news and cry for all involved.

Me, too, Cardie. This is truly sad--and frightening.

Enmar, stay safe. OK?
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#33 tennyson

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Posted 13 July 2006 - 05:26 PM

I'm really suprised I thought there would at least be a few more days before anything like this happened. At this point all I have to offer is that we are in "wait and see" mode. This will be bad no matter what but how bad remains to be seen.
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#34 Cheile

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Posted 14 July 2006 - 03:09 AM

i'm about THISCLOSE to saying that the higher powers of the planet should do the impossible...which would be a) gather up the innocent and un-brainwashed individuals (probly just the poor children to be honest), b) carefully take apart the historical buildings if possible to be reconstructed, so that said higher powers can just c) BOMB the whole @#$#@ing area and kill all the morons with it.  then d) clean it up and put back those rescued and the stuff from b).

the Jews/Hebrews were there FIRST.  the Arabs need to either shut up and get along with their fellow human, or LEAVE.  >.<

(yea this subject is one of my ranty ones....don't mind me....back to your regularly scheduled politics)

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#35 FnlPrblm

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Posted 14 July 2006 - 04:01 AM

my gosh, you don't watch the news for two days and the beginnings of WWIII is on the verge of breaking out.  :eek4:

Stay safe enmar!
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#36 D'Monix

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Posted 14 July 2006 - 05:29 AM

View PostCheile, on Jul 14 2006, 08:09 AM, said:

the Jews/Hebrews were there FIRST.  the Arabs need to either shut up and get along with their fellow human, or LEAVE.  >.<

(yea this subject is one of my ranty ones....don't mind me....back to your regularly scheduled politics)

Reread the Book of Joshua, I wouldn't call wars of conquest for the "promised land" as "being there first."

This conflict, with hatred and atrocitiy on BOTH sides, has been going on for three thousand years,, why should either side let it go now?

Edited by D'Monix, 14 July 2006 - 05:30 AM.


#37 D'Monix

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Posted 14 July 2006 - 05:42 AM

note to the above, the bible is just one account of the history of the area, but one has to wonder if there isn't any parcel of land, over there or here, that isn't stained by the blood of those who have fought over it at least once?

well, maybe antarctica, who knows.

in any case,the people i sympathize with in this entire thing is the civilians on both sides who prtty much want nothing more than to live out their lives as best they can, without someone tossing rockets and artillery shells or dropping bombs in their neighborhoods.  But when nations clash, and long-set hatreds run amok then it's always the innocents who suffer.

so enmar, stay safe, and Musezack, if you have relatives over in lebanon, then i hope they stay safe as well.

#38 Themis

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Posted 14 July 2006 - 07:41 AM

View PostCheile, on Jul 14 2006, 08:09 AM, said:

i'm about THISCLOSE to saying that the higher powers of the planet should do the impossible...which would be a) gather up the innocent and un-brainwashed individuals (probly just the poor children to be honest), b) carefully take apart the historical buildings if possible to be reconstructed,

THAT much I could almost support.  But let most of those left bomb each other.  They're the ones fighting each other.

Of course who determines who's "innocent"??

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#39 Bobby

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Posted 14 July 2006 - 08:53 AM

View PostCheile, on Jul 14 2006, 03:09 AM, said:

i'm about THISCLOSE to saying that the higher powers of the planet should do the impossible...which would be a) gather up the innocent and un-brainwashed individuals (probly just the poor children to be honest), b) carefully take apart the historical buildings if possible to be reconstructed, so that said higher powers can just c) BOMB the whole @#$#@ing area and kill all the morons with it.  then d) clean it up and put back those rescued and the stuff from b).

the Jews/Hebrews were there FIRST.  the Arabs need to either shut up and get along with their fellow human, or LEAVE.  >.<

(yea this subject is one of my ranty ones....don't mind me....back to your regularly scheduled politics)


Following that line of thinking everyone but the Indians should pack up and leave America.  They were here first.  But that's confusing the issue, right?  Doesn't matter, the situations are similiar.

It's like buying a house then having someone come and take it back because they lived in it twenty years ago.  The Iraelis retook their homeland by force and they'll have to keep it the same way until enough generations pass that the people who were alive when it happened are dead.  And the ones that are left grow tired of the violence over something that happened so long ago.

Was it the Lebanese military that kidnapped the soldiers?  So why is Israel getting away with bombing the civilian population?

Edited by Caesar of the Stars, 14 July 2006 - 09:06 AM.


#40 enTranced

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Posted 14 July 2006 - 09:34 AM

Stay Safe Enmar and anybody else stuck in this!

I can only watch and hope this doesn't expload into region wide violence. Or worse! :(

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