Jump to content


Getting an "Insecure Connection" warning for Exisle? No worry

Details in this thread

Israel seems ready to go to war against Lebanon

Middle East 2006 Israel Lebanon Conflict

  • Please log in to reply
274 replies to this topic

#61 emsparks

emsparks
  • Forever Missed
  • 2,426 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 05:46 AM

View PostMuseZack, on Jul 14 2006, 06:57 PM, said:

…It was 15 years of Israeli occupation that turned the Lebanese Shi'ites from being one of the region's most docile sectarian groups to incubating and honing the toughest, most effective terrorist/guerrilla movement this side of the Tamil Tigers.

Dear Zack;
I have great respect for what little I truly know about you however I can’t let this statment go uncommented on. I don’t understand how you can be so dismissive of the Lebanese Shi'ites fighting ability until 15 years ago. Do you not remember the decades long horror of the Lebanese civil war, docile is not a word that can be applied to the Lebanese Shi'ites.

I guess that you don’t have time to listen to the interviews with Lebanese politicians aired on CNN, it is not Israel that the Lebanese are terrified of it’s Hezbollah, and the Syrians.

As to the fighting prowess of Hezbollah, that is in a major part bolstered by the incorporation of substantial units of Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and hundreds of millions each year from Iran, as reported by both CNN and FOX.

8:01 am EDT  07/15/06
Edited to add;
CNN is now reporting that it was Iranian troops that fired the missile that hit the Israeli ship.

Edited by emsparks, 15 July 2006 - 07:03 AM.

Sparky::

Think!
Question Authority, Authoritatively.

#62 andromeda3

andromeda3
  • Islander
  • 505 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 07:08 AM

Excerpts from an article in today’s “Guardian”
.....
Israeli politicians and army officers brushed aside international criticism and said their goal was to force Hizbullah's disarmament. So far at least 73 people, nearly all civilians, have been killed in Lebanon since the bombing began three days ago.
In response, Hizbullah's chief, Hassan Nasrallah, threatened "open war" against Israel, hinting at rocket attacks deep inside the country. He made his threat shortly after he survived an air raid on his home that appeared to be an assassination attempt. "You wanted an open war and we are ready for an open war," he said in a taped statement.
Last night an Israeli naval vessel, 10 miles off the coast of Beirut, was badly damaged when it was hit by an unmanned Hizbullah aircraft packed with explosives. Four sailors were reported missing after a blaze on board. The vessel was last night being towed back to Israel .

....
The violence came despite international condemnation. Jacques Chirac, the French president, said Israeli retaliation was "completely disproportionate" and Hizbullah was "irresponsible". George Bush, in St Petersburg for the G8 summit, promised Lebanon's prime minister, Fouad Siniora, he would press Israel to spare innocent lives. Syria last night offered its "full support to the Lebanese people and their heroic resistance ...".


http://www.guardian....1821149,00.html



And from:
http://lebanesebloggers.blogspot.com

Iran-Syria Axis Fully Materializing
I don't know what to say anymore. Sayyid Nasrallah is still alive and declaring an open war. Where is our President? Where are our Ministers? Prime Minister? Members of Parliament?
.......
Lebanon is a hostage and all the Lebanese people are a pawn in the hands of the few.


posted by doha yesterday

#63 G1223

G1223

    The Blunt Object.

  • Dead account
  • 16,164 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 07:50 AM

Zack are you so sure of your facts there? Are you sure it was that occupation? Maybe it was the occupation by Syria and huge amounts of money given to terrorist by Iran that non axis of evil nation.
It is all Israel's fault?

I guess Chirac would have thought sending out a harshly worded statement would have been just thing. Then again maybe he is saying this to prevent a arab uprising as his police and military did so poorly with the last set of riots.
If you encounter any Trolls. You really must not forget them.
And if you want to save these shores. For Pity sake Don't Trust them.
paraphrased from H. "Breaker" Morant

TANSTAAFL
If you voted for Obama then all the mistakes he makes are your fault and I will point this out to you every time he does mess up.

When the fall is all that remains. It matters a great deal.

All hail the clich's all emcompassing shadow.

My playing well with other's skill has been vastly overrated

Member of the Order of the Knigths of the Woeful Countance.

#64 Rivergirl

Rivergirl
  • Islander
  • 63 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 09:09 AM

Oh crap, I hate bombs.  I live here in Beirut, and missles/bombs/shell/who cares when they're incoming #s 8 and 9 just landed.  I know they're being aimed a mile or so south of me, but, crap, I hate bombs.

Your speculation as to why these events are taking place are interesting... but just speculation.  Personally, I don't have a clue, although I'm always suspicious of Syria.  I have a sneaking suspicion that they'd love to see Israel really invade Lebanon so they can rush in and save the country again.  I don't think Syria has every truly accepted Lebanon's independence.

Most of what Nasrallah says is rhetoric, but Israel's insistance that Lebanon should have disarmed Hizbullah is just silly.  Until last year, Lebanon was controlled by Syria who supports the militia.  

Right now, we're stuck here.  The airport is closed, there's a naval blockade and the main roads to Syria (the only way out over land) have been bombed.  I've heard that the Syrians aren't issuing transit visas to Americans, but who knows how they feel about Canadians.
Faith is like radar that sees through the fog -- the reality of things at a distance that the human eye cannot see.

Corrie Ten Boom

#65 Themis

Themis
  • Islander
  • 6,544 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 10:09 AM

{{{{Rivergirl}}}}  Stay safe!

Themis
Cats will never be extinct!

#66 G1223

G1223

    The Blunt Object.

  • Dead account
  • 16,164 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 10:49 AM

Silly as in asking for the group thugs to be disarmed after the Syrians left or silly as in the idea that these guys really need those guns and rocket launchers.

I am sorry you are stuck.
If you encounter any Trolls. You really must not forget them.
And if you want to save these shores. For Pity sake Don't Trust them.
paraphrased from H. "Breaker" Morant

TANSTAAFL
If you voted for Obama then all the mistakes he makes are your fault and I will point this out to you every time he does mess up.

When the fall is all that remains. It matters a great deal.

All hail the clich's all emcompassing shadow.

My playing well with other's skill has been vastly overrated

Member of the Order of the Knigths of the Woeful Countance.

#67 Lin731

Lin731
  • Islander
  • 4,126 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 11:04 AM

Sounds like a Hell's breaking loose over there  :(  Sad to see the cradle of religion once again erupting in violence. Seems the middle east is and will continue to be the most violent, unstable part of the world. People like rivergirl unfortunately have to live in the midst of that mess.

Rivergirl and enmar stay safe guys, as safe as you can be in this mess.
Posted Image
Posted Image

#68 CJ AEGIS

CJ AEGIS

    Warship Guru!

  • Islander
  • 6,847 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 11:31 AM

This is worse than I thought...  And I may owe Specs a coke.  It looks like the Iranians may be in the middle of it.


View Posttennyson, on Jul 14 2006, 06:37 PM, said:

Do you know the ship or have a link I could follow?
Israel: Iran Aided Hezbollah Ship Attack

Quote

A missile fired by Hezbollah, not an unmanned drone laden with explosives, damaged an Israeli warship off Lebanon, the army said Saturday. Elite Iranian troops helped fire the missile, a senior Israeli intelligence official said.

Quote

The intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information, said about 100 Iranian soldiers are in Lebanon and helped fire the Iranian-made, radar-guided C-102 at the ship late Friday.

Crud that is an act of war on the part of Iran and I don’t think Israel can afford to ignore it.  

It fits too.  I can’t see a UAV drone getting the drop on a Saar V that is at action stations.  They just aren’t fast enough to get under the Barak SAM system and CIWS mount.  A SSM setup on shore in an ambush situation on a ship a few miles from the coast stands far more of a chance of a hit.

Quote

Rivergirl: Right now, we're stuck here. The airport is closed, there's a naval blockade and the main roads to Syria (the only way out over land) have been bombed. I've heard that the Syrians aren't issuing transit visas to Americans, but who knows how they feel about Canadians.
  
If you are a Canadian Citizen then keep in contact with the Embassy.  I know several of the European Embassies are evacuating civilians.  

The United States is also working on a plane to stage an embassy evacuation.  
U.S. Embassy works on Lebanon evacuation

The good news for the US is we have a Gator based around the Saipan in the Adriatic Sea.  They are there for an exercise named Adriatic Engagement 2005 that runs from July 11th to 30th.  Known ships in the group are USS Saipan (LHA 2), rescue and salvage ship USS Grasp (ARS 51, USS Simpson (FFG 56), and I’ll try to get more as I can find it.  I would expect that at least a CG and DDG is attached to the group,  That way if they need to airlift out the embassy we have a Tico or Burke for air defense.  USS Saipan website is down right now so I can't get more detailed info on the ESG.

I have to go to a party now for the entire afternoon and evening but I'll try to get a rundown going when I return.

Edited by CJ AEGIS, 15 July 2006 - 11:33 AM.

"History has proven too often and too recently that the nation which relaxes its defenses invites attack."
        -Fleet Admiral Nimitz
"Their sailors say they should have flight pay and sub pay both -- they're in the air half the time, under the water the other half""
        - Ernie Pyle: Aboard a DE

#69 Spectacles

Spectacles
  • Awaiting Authorisation
  • 9,632 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 11:48 AM

Quote

CJ: And I may owe Specs a coke. It looks like the Iranians may be in the middle of it.

I'm afraid so. And I'll need that coke laced with a good deal of rum to settle my nerves over this.

This is bad, bad, bad.

What I'm beginning to think is that Israel is seizing this as an opportunity to try to severely degrade Hezbollah and Hamas--both of which think Israel has no right to exist and are determined to make that happen, no matter how delusional that goal is. Israel can definitely outlast them, no matter how many unguided rockets Hezbollah has.

A big question, then, becomes this: how will the general public in Palestine and Lebanon respond? Will they be angrier at the Israelis or at the radical Islamists in Hamas (Palestine) and Hezbollah (Lebanon). If they decide they're angrier at the Israelis, then this will become a recruiting opportunity for the radicals. But if they decide the radicals have brought this fury on their heads, then this may actually weaken them. Time--scary time--will tell.

The other big question is this: what will Iran do? If Iran sees its ten-million-dollar-a-year baby, Hezbollah, being degraded by the Israelis, will it enter the fray? That's a helluvan investment they've made in building up Hezbollah. Will they sit back and watch the Israelis chip away at it? Or will they seek to provoke Israel into a direct conflict with Iran? (Which I think would be really stupid considering Israel might just go nuclear on them.) Or would they simply turn off the oil and squeeze the West into pressuring Israel into backing off?

Whatever, we're looking at some very, very high gas prices in the near future. And with higher energy costs comes higher inflation. Thanks to our shortsightedness, Iran, as the second largest supplier of crude,  actually has some control over the world economy.

So, I'll definitely have a healthy shot of rum in that coke.  :(

Edited by Spectacles, 15 July 2006 - 11:50 AM.

"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#70 CJ AEGIS

CJ AEGIS

    Warship Guru!

  • Islander
  • 6,847 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 12:04 PM

And still can’t find any further news on the Saipan ESG in the region.  

Quote

Specs: What I'm beginning to think is that Israel is seizing this as an opportunity to try to severely degrade Hezbollah and Hamas--both of which think Israel has no right to exist and are determined to make that happen, no matter how delusional that goal is.
Getting inside the head of the Israelis is next to impossible to do.  My experience with trying it always leaves me guessing.  They may be seeing this as a chance to knock both down a peg.  On the other hand if Iran is in the area with troops as the SSM attack seems to indicate I’m wondering if the Israelis aren’t doing this to keep Iran from getting a firm foothold with troops in Lebanon.  

Quote

Specs: A big question, then, becomes this: how will the general public in Palestine and Lebanon respond? Will they be angrier at the Israelis or at the radical Islamists in Hamas (Palestine) and Hezbollah (Lebanon).
On top of that further reports are indicating on the missiles missed the Saar V and tagged an Egyptian vessel.  Best reports are saying it is a civvy flagged Egyptian vessel.  This might anger Egypt at Iran enough that they’ll stay well out of the mess especially since they have big bucks coming from the US to keep them out..

Quote

Specs: The other big question is this: what will Iran do?
If that missile was fired by Iranian Soldiers then the ball is already in Israel’s side of the court.  I expect that they’ll try to tag themselves an Iranian soldier to show to the world and some other proof.  And then who knows what they’ll do from there.  They have several options from ignoring it to diplomatic protests, to sending sub on a long voyage to tag an Iranian naval vessel if they want to be devious, or to air strikes supported by tankers.  This is one we’ll have to wait on.
"History has proven too often and too recently that the nation which relaxes its defenses invites attack."
        -Fleet Admiral Nimitz
"Their sailors say they should have flight pay and sub pay both -- they're in the air half the time, under the water the other half""
        - Ernie Pyle: Aboard a DE

#71 QueenTiye

QueenTiye

    Behavior is not reproducible over multiple trials.

  • Islander
  • 24,326 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 12:08 PM

View PostRivergirl, on Jul 15 2006, 10:09 AM, said:

Oh crap, I hate bombs.  I live here in Beirut, and missles/bombs/shell/who cares when they're incoming #s 8 and 9 just landed.  I know they're being aimed a mile or so south of me, but, crap, I hate bombs.

Your speculation as to why these events are taking place are interesting... but just speculation.  Personally, I don't have a clue, although I'm always suspicious of Syria.  I have a sneaking suspicion that they'd love to see Israel really invade Lebanon so they can rush in and save the country again.  I don't think Syria has every truly accepted Lebanon's independence.

Most of what Nasrallah says is rhetoric, but Israel's insistance that Lebanon should have disarmed Hizbullah is just silly.  Until last year, Lebanon was controlled by Syria who supports the militia.  

Right now, we're stuck here.  The airport is closed, there's a naval blockade and the main roads to Syria (the only way out over land) have been bombed.  I've heard that the Syrians aren't issuing transit visas to Americans, but who knows how they feel about Canadians.

Rivergirl! Thank you for posting.  Please keep us up to date so we know you're ok.

This is when you really recognize the worst thing about war - that innocent people on both sides are endangered. :(

QT

Een Draght Mackt Maght


#72 emsparks

emsparks
  • Forever Missed
  • 2,426 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 12:24 PM

View PostCJ AEGIS, on Jul 15 2006, 01:04 PM, said:

And still can’t find any further news on the Saipan ESG in the region.  

Quote

Specs: What I'm beginning to think is that Israel is seizing this as an opportunity to try to severely degrade Hezbollah and Hamas--both of which think Israel has no right to exist and are determined to make that happen, no matter how delusional that goal is.
Getting inside the head of the Israelis is next to impossible to do.  My experience with trying it always leaves me guessing.  They may be seeing this as a chance to knock both down a peg.  On the other hand if Iran is in the area with troops as the SSM attack seems to indicate I’m wondering if the Israelis aren’t doing this to keep Iran from getting a firm foothold with troops in Lebanon.  

CJ if you really want to get into the head of the Israelis, keep these facts and phrase in mind. We don’t see this as something new, this has been a continuous state of war since the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, ordered the destruction of the state of Israel in 1947. The only thing that has changed in the last 59 years is the name of the bad actors. The phrase is “Never again!”
Sparky::

Think!
Question Authority, Authoritatively.

#73 emsparks

emsparks
  • Forever Missed
  • 2,426 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 01:05 PM

There is hope…

CNN is reporting:
The Arab League has said that the peace process is dead and this can only be resolved by the United Nations. This is important for what was not done; the Arab League did not call for a general mobilization of the Armies of member states.

Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, while condemning Israel, express concern that a militia on its own, could bring the whole region into state of war.
Sparky::

Think!
Question Authority, Authoritatively.

#74 Corwin

Corwin

    fortitudo ac honor

  • Islander
  • 1,695 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 02:33 PM

The Israeli SaarV that was hit is reported to be the "Spear".
Also, it did not have it's EWS systems active at the time, so the CIWS and the Baraks could not engage the incoming missiles (2).  The remaining missile continued on another 15 miles or so before striking an seriously damaging an Egyptian freighter or trawler.

I can't imagine why they wouldn't have had their EWS active...  They are lucky that the ship had as little damage and as few casualties as it did.


Corwin
"The Enemy is upon us, so Lock and Load, Brothers.  The Emperor Calls and the Forces of Chaos must be driven back.  Though all of us will fall, none of us shall fail!"

#75 Rivergirl

Rivergirl
  • Islander
  • 63 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 03:04 PM

View PostG1223, on Jul 15 2006, 03:49 PM, said:

Silly as in asking for the group thugs to be disarmed after the Syrians left or silly as in the idea that these guys really need those guns and rocket launchers.


Silly as in suggesting that the Lebanese government ever had the ability to disarm Hizbullah.  

At the time Israel withdrew/was forced out by Hizbullah (depending on which side of the border you're on), Lebanon was totally controlled by Syria -- their military and their secret police.  Syria supports Hizbullah.  There is no way that Lebanon could have disarmed them then.  

Even now that the Syrians are gone (at least officially) the government and it's military ( a giant make-work project rather than an effective force) couldn't disarm the militia.  Not without a lot of blood being spilled.

And you have to remember that, for a large portion of the country, Hizbullah is known as the only force that has ever beaten Israel, forcing them out of the country (or most of it, except for Sheba Farms which is a whole other debate).  So trying to disarm Hizbullah, while perhaps something the government would like to do, is not something they were physically or politically able to do.

BTW, when I posted earlier I said that hits 8 and 9 had just landed.  Since then, I quit counting at 30.   Doesn't look like we're going to get much sleep tonight.
Faith is like radar that sees through the fog -- the reality of things at a distance that the human eye cannot see.

Corrie Ten Boom

#76 Spectacles

Spectacles
  • Awaiting Authorisation
  • 9,632 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 03:16 PM

Jeez...Rivergirl, my thoughts are with you, as they are with everyone over there.

I heard on the news that the Israelis bombed a couple of wheat silos in Lebanon. Given the sea blockade, the blasting of the airports and main roads, I'm wondering if they intend to make living conditions in Lebanon sheer hell--and what for. Going after Hezbollah I can understand. Imposing suffering on the Lebanese people, many of whom aren't that crazy about Hezbollah, but, as you say, can't do anything to force them to disarm,  I don't understand. I would think such a move would backfire on Israel.
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#77 Bobby

Bobby

    FKA LiberalBob

  • Islander
  • 4,369 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 03:16 PM

View PostRivergirl, on Jul 15 2006, 03:04 PM, said:

View PostG1223, on Jul 15 2006, 03:49 PM, said:

Silly as in asking for the group thugs to be disarmed after the Syrians left or silly as in the idea that these guys really need those guns and rocket launchers.


Silly as in suggesting that the Lebanese government ever had the ability to disarm Hizbullah.  

At the time Israel withdrew/was forced out by Hizbullah (depending on which side of the border you're on), Lebanon was totally controlled by Syria -- their military and their secret police.  Syria supports Hizbullah.  There is no way that Lebanon could have disarmed them then.  

Even now that the Syrians are gone (at least officially) the government and it's military ( a giant make-work project rather than an effective force) couldn't disarm the militia.  Not without a lot of blood being spilled.

And you have to remember that, for a large portion of the country, Hizbullah is known as the only force that has ever beaten Israel, forcing them out of the country (or most of it, except for Sheba Farms which is a whole other debate).  So trying to disarm Hizbullah, while perhaps something the government would like to do, is not something they were physically or politically able to do.

BTW, when I posted earlier I said that hits 8 and 9 had just landed.  Since then, I quit counting at 30.   Doesn't look like we're going to get much sleep tonight.

Are you in a bunker or do they have one available near you?

#78 Rivergirl

Rivergirl
  • Islander
  • 63 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 03:28 PM

View PostCaesar of the Stars, on Jul 15 2006, 08:16 PM, said:

Are you in a bunker or do they have one available near you?

I don't know if there are any bunkers anywhere.  But certainly not near us.  However, the targets seem to be mainly 1 - 2 km south and north of us.  I have a 'get out of town quick' bag packed and by my bed in case we have to go to the underground garage, but that's about it.  In a way, we're better off that the poor people in N. Israel who have bunkers, but are almost imprisioned in them because of the rockets.  This whole thing isn't good for anyone.

People have been talking about what the results of this excalation will be.  Personally, I think that the result will be even more Lebanese giving up on the country and trying to emigrate to the US, Canada or Australia etc.  Possibly the biggest cost of this whole thing will be the people who leave.  

I think people were hopeful that the bad times were over and that the recovery from the civil war was well underway.  Now there's been so much damage to the infrastructure and to the prospects for the tourist season, that the economy - which was marginal at best - may have been completely destroyed.  That alone may solidify Hizbullah's power base, since they have access to substantial sums from Iran and Syria.  Speculation on my part.
Faith is like radar that sees through the fog -- the reality of things at a distance that the human eye cannot see.

Corrie Ten Boom

#79 Spectacles

Spectacles
  • Awaiting Authorisation
  • 9,632 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 03:41 PM

Quote

Rivergirl: Now there's been so much damage to the infrastructure and to the prospects for the tourist season, that the economy - which was marginal at best - may have been completely destroyed. That alone may solidify Hizbullah's power base, since they have access to substantial sums from Iran and Syria. Speculation on my part.

Sounds like reasonable speculation--unfortunately.

Do take care. Maybe cooler heads will prevail, but it sure doesn't look like a possibility. Instead it looks like this is the overdue slugfest that Hezbollah and Hamas and the Israeli hardliners have been itching for for a long time. Personally, it's hard to imagine anything terribly good coming from it. And you have my deepest sympathy.
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#80 gsmonks

gsmonks

    Tree Psychiatrist

  • Islander
  • 5,137 posts

Posted 15 July 2006 - 04:33 PM

I don't think any of this is "suddenly happening", as it were. I think that several dams were full to bursting with enmity, and the various factions are just now kicking out the few supports holding things back.

It could be that the focus is on Israel because those factions wanting to do the Jews in want the focus there instead of in their own back yards. Further, I think Israel is acting as they are in order to avoid being hemmed in. In the event of all-out war, it could be that they think it's in their best interest to spread things around as much as possible.

Fighting a war on multiple fronts is preferable to being surrounded and laid siege to.

It used to be said that fighting a war on multiple fronts was courting disaster, but that statement was made long before missiles, aircraft, radio and spy satellites.

Here in Canada there was a peaceful demontration consisting of Canadian Palestinians and Jews and some Lebanese, and one can only hope to see more of that.

I have friends from all over the region, and none of them buy into the causes of the present strife. Not a one. But they're all very worried about family and friends, and I would hate to see things take such a turn that they're forced into crises of conscience that will force them to choose sides.

Ironically, I had a bunch of friends over for dinner a few months ago. A violinist friend's wife is Lebanese, two old friends are Palestinian, and two more old friends are Jewish.

As they all say, when this sort of stuff erupts, "Mpf! Let's talk about food! Pass the couscous."
Capitalism is a pyramid scheme run by the 1%.



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Middle East, 2006, Israel, Lebanon, Conflict

0 user(s) are browsing this forum

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users