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Tropical Storm Gustav On Track to Louisiana?

Natural Disaster Tropical Storm Gustav 2008

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#1 D'Monix

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 11:09 PM

Gustav Possibly on Track For Louisiana and New Orleans

While the DNC lovefest in Denver is all well and good, Louisiana and 'Nawlins may have much larger problems on the horizon.


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#2 The Oncoming Storm

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 10:39 AM

Actually, looking at the models and the satellite images, N.O. (while not yet in the clear) may be spared the worst of this one.  

The projected forecast track put out by the NHC points to Morgan City/New Iberia area in La.  But, ol' Gus is about 5-6 days out from landfall in the N'n Gulf of Mexico and I don't think we've seen the end of the wibble-wobble out of the PFT yet.

Rose: [disgusted] Oh, look at what the cat dragged in: "The Oncoming Storm."

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#3 Nick

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 10:44 AM

I sincerely hope it'll fizzle, and I'm very worried for New Orleans.  They still haven't recovered from Katrina, and I doubt the levees were ever improved to withstand a strong hurricane.

Also, because you brought it up, the storm probably won't make landfall until next week--during the Republican love-fest in the twin cities.  McCain's birthday is also Friday, which happens to ALSO be the anniversary of Katrina.  You may recall what John McCain and George Bush were doing almost exactly 3 years ago while an American city was inundated and nearly wiped off the map.  They were sharing birthday cake.  (or am I not allowed to bring that up, because McCain didn't get any birthday cake at all FOR 5 AND A HALF YEARS!!!!)

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#4 Cardie

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 11:22 AM

And now T.S. Hanna is coming fast on Gustav's heels!  I think you need to change your name back, former Lost Cause, and not be giving these storms encouragement!

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#5 Nick

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 11:44 AM

I'm keeping my eye on both of them.  Gustav could strengthen rapidly when it gets into the Gulf.  There are a few loop current eddies in the Gulf that can turbocharge a storm that passes over them.  Charley made a fairly sudden right turn after it was in the gulf and hit me.  Hanna's (for now) on a direct path for Florida.  It's possible she could cross the florida peninsula, pick up some steam in the Gulf and be a double whammy for whoever gets hit by Gustav.

#6 The Oncoming Storm

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 12:55 PM

View PostCardie, on Aug 28 2008, 11:22 AM, said:

And now T.S. Hanna is coming fast on Gustav's heels! I think you need to change your name back, former Lost Cause, and not be giving these storms encouragement!

Cardie

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At least I didn't change it to "The Harbinger of Death."  Who knows what would've happened!

View PostNick, on Aug 28 2008, 11:44 AM, said:

I'm keeping my eye on both of them. Gustav could strengthen rapidly when it gets into the Gulf. There are a few loop current eddies in the Gulf that can turbocharge a storm that passes over them. Charley made a fairly sudden right turn after it was in the gulf and hit me. Hanna's (for now) on a direct path for Florida. It's possible she could cross the florida peninsula, pick up some steam in the Gulf and be a double whammy for whoever gets hit by Gustav.

I've noticed.  The models all agree on a left hand hook by Hanna into the Bahamas and Florida.  After it enters the Gulf it'll prob'ly turn and hit some place like Pensacola or Mobile (if it follows historical trends).

Rose: [disgusted] Oh, look at what the cat dragged in: "The Oncoming Storm."

"Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday." -- John Wayne


Sometimes the best causes worth fighting for are lost causes. -- Me.

Formerly Known as "Lost Cause."


#7 Nick

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 02:17 PM

In other words, it's going to visit me, and then my parents. :lol:

#8 Palisades

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 05:32 PM

Where I am in Virginia we're getting torrential rain and are on a flood watch. I wonder if the tropical storms are close enough to be causing that. Until yesterday, it's been really dry here. Just a couple days ago, we were being told to conserve water.

ETA: From the map I just looked at, it looks like the storm that's affecting us is distinct from the ones that are menacing Haiti and threaening Florida/Louisiana. However, it looks like it might be part of the same storm system/caused by the same factors.

AccuWeather:

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Edited by TWP, 28 August 2008 - 05:47 PM.

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#9 Cardie

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 06:34 PM

TWP, your bad weather is being caused by what's left of tropical storm Fay, the rainmaker that never dies.  We had it pouring down on us (SC) the past three days after it spent a week flooding Florida. It's now moved north.

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#10 DWF

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Posted 29 August 2008 - 06:06 PM

Let's just hope we don't see a repeat of what happened three years ago.  :no:
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#11 D'Monix

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 01:42 AM

Tracking Map from Weather Underground

Hurricane Gustav: Predicted Storm Track as of 08/29

Right on the edge of Catagory 2 as of last track.

D'

#12 Nick

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 09:28 AM

View PostDWF, on Aug 29 2008, 07:06 PM, said:

Let's just hope we don't see a repeat of what happened three years ago.  :no:

Or four years ago.  Everyone remembers Katrina in '05 because New Orleans is so iconic and yet vulnerable and neglected to these storms.  2004 had Charlie which obliterated Punta Gorda and gave the rest of Central Florida a beating.  And then Frances.  And then Ivan devastated the panhandle.  And then Jeanne.  I really don't want this to be another multiple-landfall bonanza this year.

#13 DWF

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 10:06 AM

View PostNick, on Aug 30 2008, 10:28 AM, said:

View PostDWF, on Aug 29 2008, 07:06 PM, said:

Let's just hope we don't see a repeat of what happened three years ago.  :no:

Or four years ago.  Everyone remembers Katrina in '05 because New Orleans is so iconic and yet vulnerable and neglected to these storms.  2004 had Charlie which obliterated Punta Gorda and gave the rest of Central Florida a beating.  And then Frances.  And then Ivan devastated the panhandle.  And then Jeanne.  I really don't want this to be another multiple-landfall bonanza this year.

Well for a while it looked like Gustav was going to take a similar path to Katrina luckly it turned west and hopefully lost some it's power.
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#14 The Oncoming Storm

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 12:09 PM

Current Track Update:

Landfall looks to be somewhere around Morgan City, La.  Gus is a strong Cat 3 with 125 mph winds moving NW @ 12 mph.  Current pressure is 954 millibars, reflective of the period of rapid intesification it underwent during the night-time hours.  

It's 3 days from landfall (as currently projected) and the cone of error runs from Galveston, Tx (west side) to the MS/AL state line (east side).  Anyone in that area needs to montior the next 24 hrs for any track shifts that could re-determine the location of landfall.  

I do know that Gov. Jindal (La) is preparing to contra-flow both SW La and SE La out simultaneously if needed.  I wouldn't be surpised if everything along the coast (including Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parishes) all the way to Lake Charles, La. is evacuated in the 48 hrs.  A large chunk of Acadiana will be cleared out in advance of Gus, especially since it's low-lying and swampland.  (Though, it would not surprise me to see a bunch of hard-core Cajuns and some miscellanious idiots stay around for the landfall.)  

That's the situation as it stands.

Rose: [disgusted] Oh, look at what the cat dragged in: "The Oncoming Storm."

"Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday." -- John Wayne


Sometimes the best causes worth fighting for are lost causes. -- Me.

Formerly Known as "Lost Cause."


#15 offworlder

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 12:22 PM

Attached File  gustav.jpg   54.06K   13 downloads

these are the times i'm glad i live close to the lower mainland, the vancouver one that is... one day we'll have a massive earthquake that'll kill us all, but i wont be alive to see it.. it's rare we have anything weathernewsworthy, yet they make every lil thing weathernews, like winds of 40mph, or if a river floods.. but we have nothing like Katrina.. i was born in florida long ago, if i still lived there i'd have all these stormwatch things all the time, and decisions, do we 'run or ride it out?'

Edited by offworlder, 30 August 2008 - 12:25 PM.

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#16 Mooky

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 03:24 PM

Looks like Mississippi will be pretty much ok.  I just hope our water and power don't go out for a month like it did with Kat.

#17 Cardie

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 04:20 PM

This is a huge Cat 4; if it doesn't decrease in intensity and width, Mississippi will get plenty of rain and wind, even with a landfall in western Louisiana.  If it veers off to Corpus Christi or something, then you'd probably be in the clear.

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#18 Nick

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 05:38 PM

The models are in consensus for a western LA landfall Monday.  It will likely strengthen to a Cat 5 very soon.  New Orleans is still in the cone and very vulnerable to the inevitable storm surge, even if it escapes a direct hit.  Datalyss, you're a good bit inland and out of the direct path, but that could change.  You're almost certain to be in for some nasty weather.

TS Hanna appears to be hanging out just shy of the Bahamas.  I'm just barely outside of the 5 day cone.  Round and round we go.

#19 Cheile

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 09:07 PM

i kinda figured this would happen:

Mayor Nagin orders mandatory evac of New Orleans

anyone in that area, be safe.

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#20 Rhea

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 09:26 PM

McCain and Palin are beating feet to Mississippi to "check on" the local readiness for Gustav. Guess New Orleans was out for a photo op. ;)

Edited by Rhea, 30 August 2008 - 09:26 PM.

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