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Tropical Storm Gustav On Track to Louisiana?

Natural Disaster Tropical Storm Gustav 2008

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#21 D'Monix

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 12:05 AM

Weather Underground: Hurricane Gustav Storm Track

Cat 4

wind gusts to Cat 5.

D'

Edited by D'Monix, 31 August 2008 - 12:06 AM.


#22 Nick

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 09:28 AM

The track has drifted somewhat eastward, however it may miss the loop eddy and remain a Cat 4 at landfall.  Anyone near water in a low-lying area in Louisiana should evacuate.  This one's gonna be rough.

#23 Spectacles

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 10:07 AM

This is absolutely a nightmare: Son of Katrina.

It's the same path, same strength. It's a little smaller than Katrina, I think, but it could possibly make landfall even stronger. I don't know how the storm surge will compare to Katrina's (and that was the real killer) but I've seen projections as high as 20 feet--and that's bad.

We can hope the levees hold, but even if they do, Katrina absolutely destroyed the Mississippi and eastern Louisiana coastal communities as a Cat 3 at landfall. This one will do the same thing, at least.

Unbelievable.
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#24 offworlder

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 10:14 AM

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/

well lake charles will get drenched; and Houma to port arthur should be outta there.
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#25 Rhea

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 10:44 AM

It's been downgraded to a cat 3 as of 11 a.m. ET. But they say it'll still pick up some juice from the warm gulf waters.
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#26 Cheile

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 12:26 PM

unfortunately they say it's sposed to be a cat. 4 agin by landfall.

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#27 Shoshana

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 03:32 PM

View PostSpectacles, on Aug 31 2008, 10:07 AM, said:

This is absolutely a nightmare: Son of Katrina.

It's the same path, same strength. It's a little smaller than Katrina, I think, but it could possibly make landfall even stronger. I don't know how the storm surge will compare to Katrina's (and that was the real killer) but I've seen projections as high as 20 feet--and that's bad.

We can hope the levees hold, but even if they do, Katrina absolutely destroyed the Mississippi and eastern Louisiana coastal communities as a Cat 3 at landfall. This one will do the same thing, at least.

Unbelievable.

Tropical force winds extend out 400 miles - just like Katrina. Hurricane force winds right now extend out 50 mi vs 80 mi for Katrina. It's pretty close in size.

It's actually not on the same path as Katrina - it's very close to 1965's Hurricane Betsy (the first billion dollar hurricane) (at least the approach angle to final landfall). Katrina was going almost due north and slipped east of NOLA at the last minute, Gustav will be approaching from the southeast and going slightly west of NOLA putting NOLA on the bad side of the storm.

Hurricane Betsy track

Katrina track

Gustav track

Edited by Shoshana, 31 August 2008 - 03:33 PM.


#28 The Oncoming Storm

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 04:33 PM

View PostSpectacles, on Aug 31 2008, 10:07 AM, said:

This is absolutely a nightmare: Son of Katrina.

It's the same path, same strength. It's a little smaller than Katrina, I think, but it could possibly make landfall even stronger. I don't know how the storm surge will compare to Katrina's (and that was the real killer) but I've seen projections as high as 20 feet--and that's bad.

We can hope the levees hold, but even if they do, Katrina absolutely destroyed the Mississippi and eastern Louisiana coastal communities as a Cat 3 at landfall. This one will do the same thing, at least.

Unbelievable.

The thing about Katrina was that the surge remained at a Cat 5 level for a Cat 3 storm.  My personal theory on that is once a storm reaches Cat 5 and gets the seas so churned up (not just on the surface, but underneath -- like a tsunami) the wave heights won't diminish and the surge will prob'ly be maintained.  IIRC, Katrina remained a Cat 5 for over 24 hrs which was plenty of time to stir the seas up and with nothing between it and N.O./Ms to break those surges up, they were still packing hard when it hit even as a Cat 3.  (FTR:  Wave heights associated with Katrina were being reported from anywhere between 46ft and 85ft before landfall with 100+ high rogues.)  Some meteorolgists think that Katrina's massive size (diameter) is what helped to push the monster surge in.  (It was shoving 25-27ft in Ms. for a Cat 3, which should be 12-18ft of surge.)

The fact that Gustav isn't going to reach Cat 5 status is very, very good for the places along the coast where it's gonna hit.

Rose: [disgusted] Oh, look at what the cat dragged in: "The Oncoming Storm."

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#29 MuseZack

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 04:42 PM

Isn't Gustav about to pass into the super-warm section of the Gulf, with its potential for major strengthening?
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#30 Spectacles

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 05:53 PM

Thanks, Shoshana. Gustav really does seem to be following Betsy's path.

TOS, that's my theory, too. :) I was worried that Gustav was going to sit out in the gulf and agitate for a while at Cat 5 strength like Katrina did. I'm glad it's not.

Still worried, though. A Cat 3 is going to tear things to pieces and the storm surge is still probably going to be pretty high.

But maybe it won't be as bad as I fear. I guess at this point, all we can do is hope....
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#31 Mooky

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 06:45 PM

Lookin' outside my winder, I don't see no rain yet. Could change overnight tho:

Posted Image

#32 Cardie

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 06:47 PM

View PostMuseZack, on Aug 31 2008, 05:42 PM, said:

Isn't Gustav about to pass into the super-warm section of the Gulf, with its potential for major strengthening?

Gustav is halfway through that area and has in fact not strengthened, although it still may.  I think there were some upper-level winds or some other countering phenomenon, plus it picked up speed and has had a day less to churn than previously forecast.

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#33 Shoshana

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 07:20 PM

I'm worried about the people in Baton Rouge. Gustav sure looks like he's heading right for them. Everyone is spending so much time looking at New Orleans and ignoring cities like Baton Rouge and Lafayette...

Hopefully anyone that's leaving has left already because the outer bands are moving into Louisiana...

Edited by Shoshana, 31 August 2008 - 07:20 PM.


#34 Sinister Dexter

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 07:43 PM

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#35 The Oncoming Storm

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Posted 31 August 2008 - 10:37 PM

View PostCardie, on Aug 31 2008, 06:47 PM, said:

View PostMuseZack, on Aug 31 2008, 05:42 PM, said:

Isn't Gustav about to pass into the super-warm section of the Gulf, with its potential for major strengthening?

Gustav is halfway through that area and has in fact not strengthened, although it still may. I think there were some upper-level winds or some other countering phenomenon, plus it picked up speed and has had a day less to churn than previously forecast.

Cardie


It was and did pass through the area with high THCP (tropical cyclone heat potential) but, it wasn't ever fully able to recover from going over Cuba (for some odd reason).  On top of that, it encountered more mid-level wind shear than was expected, causing it to have major problems re-developing and actually hiccuping the system so that it diminished more.

Right now, the winds are 115 mph (100 knots); forward speed is 16 mph to the NW and the pressure seems to be stabilizing around 954 millibars.  This is considerably weaker than it was prior to Cuba (150 mph winds; 942 mb pressure), though it's still a major hurricane.  

I'm actually hoping (and seriously wondering) if it won't weaken just a bit more before making landfall around Grand Isle, La.  Storms that hit S. La. tend to do that because the waters before the coastline have a lower TCHP than the rest of the Gulf.

Rose: [disgusted] Oh, look at what the cat dragged in: "The Oncoming Storm."

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#36 Rhea

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Posted 01 September 2008 - 01:10 AM

They're saying now it will remain a category 3 storm:

http://news.yahoo.co...ttbCBcehf6s0NUE

Still bad, though:

Quote

Forecasters said Gustav could strengthen slightly as it marched toward the coast. At 11 p.m. EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said Gustav was centered about 220 miles southeast of New Orleans and was moving northwest near 16 mph. It had top sustained winds of 115 mph, and was likely to stay a Category 3 storm when it made landfall west of New Orleans. Category 3 storms have winds between 111 mph and 130 mph.

Rain started falling in New Orleans before sunset, and tropical storm-force winds had reached the southeastern tip of the state.

New Orleans will likely be on the "dirty" side of the storm — where rainfall is heaviest and tornadoes are possible, but the storm surge is lower. If forecasts hold, the city would experience a storm surge of only 4 to 6 feet, compared to a surge of 10 to 14 feet at the site of landfall, said Corey Walton, a hurricane support meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center. Katrina, by comparison, brought a storm surge of 25 feet.

Surge models suggest large areas of southeast Louisiana, including parts of the greater New Orleans area, could be flooded by several feet of water. But Gustav appears most likely to overwhelm the levees west of the city that have for decades been underfunded and neglected and are years from an update.

Edited by Rhea, 01 September 2008 - 01:12 AM.

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#37 Mooky

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Posted 01 September 2008 - 01:13 PM

So far, the most that happened in my area is rain, and our power went out for a few hours.

A few idiots refused to evac New Orleans.   I wondered how they fared.

----

Today's projected path of Gustav:

Posted Image

Edited by Datalyss, 01 September 2008 - 01:29 PM.


#38 Cheile

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Posted 01 September 2008 - 01:26 PM

right now, says it's a cat. 2 and made landfall 15 miles south of Houma.  ppl reporting in from New Orleans report not too much trouble so far.

tho yea everyone shoulda left.  mandatory evac to me means "you have no choice.  grab your kids, elderly, pets, and most treasured items and GTFO."

but my friend in Houston told me that anyone who refuses is ineligible for aid so i guess that makes sense.  if you're dumb enough to stay, you can't go crying for help when you're bitchslapped by the power of Mother Nature.

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#39 Mel

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Posted 01 September 2008 - 03:06 PM

All of my family is near Baton Rouge--far enough inland to not be in an evacuation zone.  They currently have sustained strong tropical force winds (in the 50-60 mph range) with hurricane force gusts.

All of them that I've talked to (3 households) have lost power.  My mom has 2 trees down, one that caused roof damage to her house (she's trying to find out where to get the blue tarps from FEMA as I type).  She can see another half dozen or so trees down in her neighbor's yards.

My sister has a tree down in her backyard damaging their fence and the kids' playhouse.  She said she's been seeing branches and shingles fly by. Her parents-in-law have a tree down in their back yard on their shop.

Edited by Mel, 01 September 2008 - 03:06 PM.


#40 Lord of the Sword

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Posted 01 September 2008 - 03:20 PM

View PostCheile, on Sep 1 2008, 02:26 PM, said:

but my friend in Houston told me that anyone who refuses is ineligible for aid so i guess that makes sense.  if you're dumb enough to stay, you can't go crying for help when you're bitchslapped by the power of Mother Nature.

Not only that, but IMO...If you refused to go and stayed and wind up needing rescue...IMO the rescuer shouldn't risk their lives trying to save someone that stupid. They were WARNED. They KNEW the risks and decided to brave the storm...they should be brave enough to deal with whatever comes their way...on their own.
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