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Terrarum you say? projected path of the next drencher, Ike:

Natural Disasters Hurricane Ike 2008

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#1 offworlder

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    pls don't kick offworlders, we can find a place too

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Posted 07 September 2008 - 03:16 PM

http://hosted.ap.org...mp;SECTION=HOME

this has drenched and winded Haiti now, Cuba next, and will , at some strength, at least mondoTS or CATsomething, hit US gulf land somewhere >> keep a watch on, and batten down! and of course, if you live in KeyWest, you'r.. wet.. again.

Edited by offworlder, 07 September 2008 - 03:17 PM.

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#2 Shoshana

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Posted 10 September 2008 - 11:21 AM

NHC 5 day forecast

#3 offworlder

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Posted 11 September 2008 - 09:29 AM

looks like this sucker is headed right for Houston,
and it'll be at least CAT2 when it gets there,
sounds like Galveston is getting the hell out,
"(Do you read what they say online?) I check out all these scandalous rumours about me and Elijah Wood having beautiful sex with each other ... (are they true?) About Elijah and me being boyfriend and boyfriend? Absolutely true. We've been together for about nine years. I wooed him. No I just like a lot of stuff - I like that someone says one thing and it becomes fact. It's kind of fun." --Dominic Monaghan in a phone interview with Newsweek while buying DVDs at the store. :D

#4 Spectacles

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Posted 11 September 2008 - 09:53 AM

Yep. This isn't looking good for Galveston and the Houston area, which are on the projected bad side of the storm.

http://www.chron.com...tx/5995453.html
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

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#5 Shoshana

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Posted 11 September 2008 - 10:40 AM

The mayor of Galveston said last night it was 'too late' to call for a mandatory evac of the island. Obviously, this morning she decided there *was* time.  Either that or she got overruled...

Just  in time, today is the 108th anniversary of Issac's Storm, the 1900 Great Galveston Hurricane.

It's a huge storm - hurricane warningsare up from Morgan City LA to south of Corpus Christi TX. Tha warning area is bigger than the cone!

Here in Austin we don't know what we'll get but they said possibly rain and wind but at the moment we're just waiting and hoping for enough rain to break the drought... Dolly turned south of us, Eduardo north and so far Ike is east...

Edited by Shoshana, 11 September 2008 - 10:43 AM.


#6 Shalamar

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 10:13 AM

I hope that The Oncoming Storm and Mel got out - It's 10 am here in Houston and Galveston is flooding. The hurricane is still some 16 hours out yet, and water is coming into the city through the storm drains - the kids are telling the tv reporters that they are seeing fish coming up through the drains. I've been watching the last couple of hours - almost no winds, and not a drop of rain, but Galvestion is already taking damage.

People who have been there though thick and thin, who have chosen time and again not to evac, are getting out.

I'm not in one of the mandatory evac zones, even when Carla, and Alicia came through we didn't flood, but my folks are I are watching it all like the proverbial hawk.

I'll try and post if things get exciting.

Edited by Shalamar, 12 September 2008 - 12:18 PM.

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#7 Kosh

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 11:09 AM

Quote

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale / Hurricane Catagories

1) 65 to 83 knots; 74 to 95 mph; 119 to 153 kph; > 980 mb

2) 84 to 95 knots; 96 to 110 mph; 154 to 177 kph; 980 - 965 mb

3) 96 to 113 knots; 111 to 130 mph; 178 to 209 kph; 964 - 945 mb

4) 114 to 134 knots; 131 to 155 mph; 210 to 249 kph; 944- 920 mb

5) 135+ knots; 155+ mph; 249+ kph; < 920 mb





Intellicast has it at 105 MPH making it a Cat 3 with gusts at 15
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#8 Shalamar

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 12:19 PM

Part of the problem is that Ike is so huge - it covers some 80% of the Gulf of Mexico.
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#9 Cardie

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 01:45 PM

Mel and TOS are safely with relatives or friends in Baton Rouge, in a house where power has been restored.  He keeps us up to date in the Staff Lounge.

Cardie
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#10 Shalamar

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 02:21 PM

Thanks Cardie, thats good to know.
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#11 Palisades

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 02:30 PM

Here's a satellite picture. The thing's the size of the Gulf of Mexico.

When I first heard of this storm I told myself I was being irrational for having a sense of foreboding just because it was named after General Eisenhower.

Edit: fixed link

Edited by Palisade, 12 September 2008 - 04:43 PM.

"When the Fed is the bartender everybody drinks until they fall down." —Paul McCulley

"In truth, 'too big to fail' is not the worst thing we should fear – our financial institutions are now on their way to becoming 'too big to save'." —Simon Johnson

FKA:
TWP / An Affirming Flame / Solar Wind / Palisade

#12 BklnScott

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 02:35 PM

Some stuff I came across re: the storm today:

Quote

For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT [Thurs], Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest.

On Galveston (home of our friend, the unfortuntately--and very recently--renamed "The Oncoming Storm," FKA "Lost Cause," who safely evacuated with his wife Mel):

Quote

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

*gulp*

Edited by ScottEVill, 12 September 2008 - 02:36 PM.

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#13 Palisades

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 02:42 PM

^ Yeah, one of the talking heads says that "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death" is the strongest language the National Weather Service has ever used when warning people to evacuate.

The strength of the language has drawn criticism. Personally, I approve of it, given the size of the storm and that it's headed straight toward a metropolitan area (not to mention Texas's offshore islands).

Edited by Palisade, 12 September 2008 - 02:44 PM.

"When the Fed is the bartender everybody drinks until they fall down." —Paul McCulley

"In truth, 'too big to fail' is not the worst thing we should fear – our financial institutions are now on their way to becoming 'too big to save'." —Simon Johnson

FKA:
TWP / An Affirming Flame / Solar Wind / Palisade

#14 BklnScott

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 02:50 PM

I also approve.  Some people--inevitably--are like, "they're full of crap, I'm a-stayin'."  

Um, yeah, ok.  Note to self: file under "darwinism" subsection "herd, cull."

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#15 Cardie

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 03:03 PM

On Surfside Beach the emergency services had to improvise and put themselves in danger to rescue eight people who decided to stay and then panicked.  Among them were a father and his adult son and daughter who stayed to surf the waves on their jet skis!

The bad thing is that these people aren't just endangering themselves but over-burdened first responders.

Cardie
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#16 shambalayogi

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 04:29 PM

A Latest update Wunderground Ike Report by Jeff Masters

This is a latest weather update on Ike.  Galveston already has some feet of water in it's downtown and local authorities have been called on for rescue from rising water in some homes.  this was reported by the Galvestton County newspaper online today.  

Galeveston County Newspaper online

It sounds like this is turning into a frightful storm because of it's powerful storm surge.

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#17 Palisades

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 04:32 PM

Just noticed the other thread.

Please merge this thread with that one.
"When the Fed is the bartender everybody drinks until they fall down." —Paul McCulley

"In truth, 'too big to fail' is not the worst thing we should fear – our financial institutions are now on their way to becoming 'too big to save'." —Simon Johnson

FKA:
TWP / An Affirming Flame / Solar Wind / Palisade

#18 Dev F

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 04:38 PM

View PostPalisade, on Sep 12 2008, 04:32 PM, said:

Just noticed the other thread.

Please merge this thread with that one.
Done!

#19 Shalamar

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 05:16 PM

Bolivar Peninsula lies east across the mouth of Galveston Bay - by 4 pm this afternoon they have had to have the Coast Guard and California Air Naqtional Guard in Black Hawk Helicopters pull over 73 people out of there after being tapped by rising water - and the storm is still 12 - yes a dozen hours from land fall. I

know Galveston, made many a visit there and to see falimiar places now filling with a couple plus feet of water is very worrying.

Surfside is cut off, if any one is still there, they're going to have to stay and there is no one there to help them.

The various island law and rescue agencies are going to be off the streets, 911 shut down after 9 pm tonight.
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#20 Cardie

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Posted 12 September 2008 - 06:44 PM

Coast Guard spokesman said they rescued 123 people (and two dogs!) from rising waters before the winds got too strong for safe helicopter operations.  There's a freighter adrift out in the Gulf with 22 crew that they tried to get to with Air Force rescue planes, but they couldn't safely put anyone in a basket in the wind and surf. So there are people who will have to ridge it out on their own with very uncertain futures.  I hope we don't have stories like that of the guy who wouldn't evacuate when Mt. St. Helen's erupted and died there.

Cardie
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