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Hurricane Rick-2nd Most Powerful Pacific Hurricane

Natural Disasters Hurricane Rick Pacific Hurricane 2009

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#1 Vapor Trails

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Posted 18 October 2009 - 12:15 AM

Wow-this is impressive. Check it out. Eventually it should reach Baja California, but as a weaker storm.

The following is off Weather Underground.

Quote

the satellite presentation of Hurricane Rick can be expressed in one
word...spectacular. The eye is quite distinct and is surrounded by
very deep convection. On the last available visible images one
could see the sunlight reflecting off the eastern side of the
eyewall and the stadium effect that is typical of intense
hurricanes. More importantly...subjective T-numbers are 7.0 and 7.5
on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB respectively...and the
objective T-numbers have reached 7.7 and a 3-hour average of 7.4
during the past hour or so.  Based on these data..the initial
intensity has been increased to 155 knots. This makes Rick the
second strongest hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific after
Linda in 1997.


There is an opportunity for Rick to gather a little more strength
tonight or early Sunday...but most likely the hurricane will
fluctuate in intensity due to possible eyewall replacement cycles
during the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter...Rick is expected to
slowly weaken as the shear begins to increase and the cyclone moves
over relatively cooler waters. This is consistent with guidance
which unanimously indicates that Rick has already reached...or is
very close to its peak intensity.


Rick continues right on track and is moving toward the
west-northwest or 290 degrees at 12 knots...embedded within the flow
south of the subtropical high over Mexico. However...in a day or
so...the steering pattern is expected to change.. the subtropical
high which has been keeping Rick on a westward course away from
Mexico will be eroded by a short wave passing to the north.  This
new steering pattern should force Rick to recurve toward the north
and northeast toward southern Baja California and then toward
Mainland Mexico. With the exception of the UK model which keeps
Rick moving westward...the rest of the models respond to the change
in steering by turning the hurricane toward the north and northeast
at different speeds. The official forecast follows the model trend
and is the middle of the guidance envelope.

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#2 sierraleone

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Posted 18 October 2009 - 07:11 PM

Don't they call them typhoons in the pacific (and Cyclones in the Indian - and those ps were coied and asted BTW.

Or does it deend on whether it was eastern or western acific....
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#3 Vapor Trails

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Posted 18 October 2009 - 11:19 PM

View Postsierraleone, on Oct 18 2009, 07:11 PM, said:

Don't they call them typhoons in the pacific (and Cyclones in the Indian - and those ps were coied and asted BTW.

Or does it deend on whether it was eastern or western acific....


Atlantic & Eastern Pacific= Hurricanes
Western Pacific=Typhoons
Indian Ocean, Southern Pacific (Australia, New Zealand)=Cyclones

Edited by Ghost Rider, 18 October 2009 - 11:20 PM.

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#4 Balderdash

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 08:23 AM

View Postsierraleone, on Oct 18 2009, 05:11 PM, said:

Don't they call them typhoons in the pacific (and Cyclones in the Indian - and those ps were coied and asted BTW.

Or does it deend on whether it was eastern or western acific....


That's what I thought too and I'm pretty sure that you are correct.   Maybe the media doesn't think we can understand the nuances but for me it's confusing because when they say "hurricane" I think Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico not California.  Anyway, Rick should be called a Typhoon not a hurricane.

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#5 Cybersnark

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 09:41 AM

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#6 Balderdash

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 12:38 PM

View PostCybersnark, on Oct 19 2009, 07:41 AM, said:

Posted Image
("Hurricane forums are full of excited comments about central pressure and wind speed and comparisons to Camille and 1931 and 1938, with hastily-tacked-on notes about how it will be tragic if anyone dies and they hope it's a dud.")


I think weather nerds get just as excited as any other nerd does over their respective areas of expertise and I think that they genuinely don't want anyone to get hurt, they just can't help getting excited over over the top weather stuff.  It is pretty cool as long as you're not sitting in the path.

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