The following is off Weather Underground.
word...spectacular. The eye is quite distinct and is surrounded by
very deep convection. On the last available visible images one
could see the sunlight reflecting off the eastern side of the
eyewall and the stadium effect that is typical of intense
hurricanes. More importantly...subjective T-numbers are 7.0 and 7.5
on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB respectively...and the
objective T-numbers have reached 7.7 and a 3-hour average of 7.4
during the past hour or so. Based on these data..the initial
intensity has been increased to 155 knots. This makes Rick the
second strongest hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific after
Linda in 1997.
There is an opportunity for Rick to gather a little more strength
tonight or early Sunday...but most likely the hurricane will
fluctuate in intensity due to possible eyewall replacement cycles
during the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter...Rick is expected to
slowly weaken as the shear begins to increase and the cyclone moves
over relatively cooler waters. This is consistent with guidance
which unanimously indicates that Rick has already reached...or is
very close to its peak intensity.
Rick continues right on track and is moving toward the
west-northwest or 290 degrees at 12 knots...embedded within the flow
south of the subtropical high over Mexico. However...in a day or
so...the steering pattern is expected to change.. the subtropical
high which has been keeping Rick on a westward course away from
Mexico will be eroded by a short wave passing to the north. This
new steering pattern should force Rick to recurve toward the north
and northeast toward southern Baja California and then toward
Mainland Mexico. With the exception of the UK model which keeps
Rick moving westward...the rest of the models respond to the change
in steering by turning the hurricane toward the north and northeast
at different speeds. The official forecast follows the model trend
and is the middle of the guidance envelope.