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Elections 2012 Political ads

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#41 QueenTiye

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 01:53 PM

OH! Page two is about Nate! :)

So, um... I liked this from Ezra: http://www.washingto...ilver-backlash/

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But it’s just as important to be clear about this: If Mitt Romney wins on election day, it doesn’t mean Silver’s model was wrong. After all, the model has been fluctuating between giving Romney a 25 percent and 40 percent chance of winning the election. That’s a pretty good chance! If you told me I had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, I’d be excited. And if I won the money, I wouldn’t turn around and tell you your information was wrong. I’d still have no evidence I’d ever had anything more than a 35 percent chance.

And this from Nate, himself, via twitter:

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Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight
.@JoeNBC: If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?

Either way, Red Cross gets another grand, but I wonder if Joe Scarborough likes his odds now?

That, btw, was not a gloat about Obama's currently stated 80% chance of winning (that 80% depends partly on turnout, and I'm quite worried about turnout, tbh).  Rather, it's a statement about what it ACTUALLY means to say someone has an 80% chance of winning.  If I were Joe, I'd ask for a premium on the longer odds - but that would mean actually acknowledging the odds, rather than the toss-up "feel' of the race.

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#42 offworlder

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 02:36 PM

Im not for or thrilled with any predictions or polls; I hope this is a tight race, I want the winner to KNOW that there is no mandate, no comfort zone; dont want the prez leaning back, put feet up on the desk, relax; hell We the People sure canna relax!
Oh sure maybe a few of Romney's constituents can do, with ten or twenty millions in the banks and portfolios and just worry if they can keep from 'losing' say fifty grand in some tax- but the rest of us are stressed- I want the prez on the edge of his seat- I wan t him stressed, I want him mindful that the United States has mucho mondo problems and needs so so many solutions; never rest, no laurels, no mandate; fix our problems or there will be Tar and Feathers waiting, we'll start heating up the barrels and cauldrons now. I want the winner to feel the skin of teeth vote margin, Feel the Burn, feel the heat, feel those barrels warming up.
PS,
here's a neat quick lil piece on the Nate predictions,

' Indeed, among the pundit class, it’s the conventional wisdom to call the race a toss-up. But then again, if you read Silver’s book you’d probably never take anything a pundit says all that seriously ever again.
In the chapter “Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit?” Silver relates how, on the eve of the 2008 election, two of the four television pundits on the McLaughlin Group said the race was too close to call, one said John McCain would win, and one predicted an Obama victory.Obama went on to win the election by nearly 10 million votes.
But no one ever called out the McLaughlin pundits on their poor prognosticating. So Silver analyzed 1,000 of the predictions made on the show. The pundits were right exactly half the time—which made their predictions no better than a coin flip.  What’s more, none of the pundits on the show was better at making predictions than any other.
Silver goes on to describe how the same qualities that make a good and entertaining TV pundit also tend to blind people to the complexities inherent in analyzing large sets of data. Pundits believe in one “big idea” and their confident expression of that idea is what makes us listen to them. '
http://www.latimes.c...0,1129852.story
"(Do you read what they say online?) I check out all these scandalous rumours about me and Elijah Wood having beautiful sex with each other ... (are they true?) About Elijah and me being boyfriend and boyfriend? Absolutely true. We've been together for about nine years. I wooed him. No I just like a lot of stuff - I like that someone says one thing and it becomes fact. It's kind of fun." --Dominic Monaghan in a phone interview with Newsweek while buying DVDs at the store. :D

#43 DarthMarley

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Posted 03 November 2012 - 03:16 PM

View PostBklnScott, on 31 October 2012 - 04:40 PM, said:

So those billboards do not = intimidation of minority voters but rather a genuine concern for the integrity of elections... despite their placement only in minority neighborhoods... but a 98 year old woman in a wheelchair delivering a punchline in an overtly comical GOTV web-ad does = "promoting a violent response to election results."  Do I have your position right?

If I put up billboards cautioning people in minority neighborhoods that theft and assault were crimes, would that be offensive? If so, why?
"It is not who is right, but what is right that is of importance."

#44 scherzo

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Posted 03 November 2012 - 07:43 PM

View PostDarthMarley, on 03 November 2012 - 03:16 PM, said:

View PostBklnScott, on 31 October 2012 - 04:40 PM, said:

So those billboards do not = intimidation of minority voters but rather a genuine concern for the integrity of elections... despite their placement only in minority neighborhoods... but a 98 year old woman in a wheelchair delivering a punchline in an overtly comical GOTV web-ad does = "promoting a violent response to election results."  Do I have your position right?

If I put up billboards cautioning people in minority neighborhoods that theft and assault were crimes, would that be offensive? If so, why?
It also begs the question why the Vice President telling a minority crowd they're gonna be put "back in chains", ISN'T offensive to the very same people?
"Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so."    -Ronald Reagan, October 27 1964
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#45 DarthMarley

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Posted 03 November 2012 - 08:08 PM

But so far, the only felony arrest for voter fraud I know of  is an apparently white woman in Nevada who is a registered republican.
"It is not who is right, but what is right that is of importance."

#46 Rhea

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 01:09 PM

Love the geezers. :p Having turned 61 this year, I can tell you that getting older doesn't change who you are one whit - if anything, it makes you more yourself. I can swear like a sailor - probably because my father was one :p. I choose not to most of the time, but it's not like you forget how to swear at 60 - or 70 - or 80. :p

I hate election crap on both sides of the aisle. Right now my pet peeve is a GOP-sponsored ad that shows a (presumably) Chinese history teacher talking in Chinese to a group of people (students?). He lumps the U.S. with Rome and Greece as a dead culture and says they bought us. It's not only insulting to Americans, it's so broadly stereotyped Chinese people that it makes me want to throw something at the TV. Racist indeed. I won't listen to it or watch it anymore, it so infuriates me.  There are a million ways to make your point other than this.
The future is better than the past. Despite the crepehangers, romanticists, and anti-intellectuals, the world steadily grows better because the human mind, applying itself to environment, makes it better. With hands...with tools...with horse sense and science and engineering.
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When I don’t understand, I have an unbearable itch to know why. - RAH


Everything is theoretically impossible, until it is done. One could write a history of science in reverse by assembling the solemn pronouncements of highest authority about what could not be done and could never happen.  - RAH

#47 BklnScott

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Posted 04 November 2012 - 10:28 PM

There's a reason some people view this epidemic of voter ID laws as disturbing evidence of an attempt by state governments to coerce people out of the voting process, and part of the reason is because the ID laws are only one facet of a wider, well-coordinated effort.  In some states this year, early voting has been drastically curtailed.  In Ohio, it was so brazen that early voting was cut back only in areas where the results were not likely to jibe with the political preferences of the officials making the new rules.  In Florida, early voting was cut in half, resulting in the following:

http://thinkprogress...ohio/?mobile=nc

This is not right.  People should not have to queue for 6, 8, 10 hours to vote, and if they get in line before the polls close, then they must always be permitted to vote.  

State governments should not be looking for ways to reduce opportunities for people to vote.  They should not be trying to make it harder for people.  They should be trying to make it easier.  

But I guess when one party knows it won't benefit from making it easier, they are likely to conclude sooner or later that the converse is also true: it *will* benefit from making it harder to vote.  (Though this is not a new thing, it just has a new sense of urgency after 2008.  Anybody remember the kerfuffle over the Motor Voter Act in 1990 or so?   It had the radical purpose of seeking to allow people to register to vote at the DMV.  Poppy Bush vetoed it!)  

We need to fix this.

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#48 Rhea

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 12:30 AM

In a lot of counties in California they are encouraging absentee voting as a convenience rather than simply a device for people out of the country or the disabled to vote. This is the second county that I've lived in that encourages permanent absentee voting. The stipulation is that the ballot be received by 8 pm on election day. It makes the polls a lot less clogged. You have to sign the ballot on the outside of the envelope.

Edited by Rhea, 05 November 2012 - 12:30 AM.

The future is better than the past. Despite the crepehangers, romanticists, and anti-intellectuals, the world steadily grows better because the human mind, applying itself to environment, makes it better. With hands...with tools...with horse sense and science and engineering.
- Robert A. Heinlein

When I don’t understand, I have an unbearable itch to know why. - RAH


Everything is theoretically impossible, until it is done. One could write a history of science in reverse by assembling the solemn pronouncements of highest authority about what could not be done and could never happen.  - RAH

#49 BklnScott

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 05:39 PM

Steve Schmidt, who was senior advisor to the McCain campaign in 2008 and the Bush campaign in 2004, as well as a special counselor to President Bush (43) *and* VP Cheney as well as manager of the Schwarzenegger re-election campaign -- so, a major player in the Republican Party -- had this to say about the "voter ID fraud" issue that many far-right Republicans are flipping out over:

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“I think that all of this stuff that has transpired over the last two years is in search of a solution to a problem, voting fraud, that doesn’t really exist when you look deeply at the question,” Schmidt said. “It’s part of the mythology now in the Republican Party that there’s widespread voter fraud across the country. In fact, there’s not.”



http://www.salon.com...t_really_exist/

Get that?  The problem doesn't exist.  According to one of the major players in the Republican Party.  

So ... what are these laws all about?  

Hmmmm... Lemme think...  What else could they be about?

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There isn't enough mommy in the world to further a cause like yours!

#50 Cait

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 06:45 PM

I have a major political crush on Steve Schmidt.  I tune in whenever he is going to be on MSNBC shows.  I can see him cringe sometimes at the bias in some questions coming from MSNBC hosts [Yes, Rachel included], but he's one of the best to listen too if you want to really understand Conservatism without the hard right slant a la Fox News.  In other words, he is sane, and I admire him for taking responsibility for the insanity of the Palin pick in 2008.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

Source:
http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html


#51 BklnScott

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 07:31 PM

http://seattletimes....ngtroubles.html

Despicable.

I sense... a pattern.

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There isn't enough mommy in the world to further a cause like yours!

#52 Cait

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 08:29 PM

If it is a pattern, it can foment a revolution.  I suppose there are a lot of things citizens will let go for their country, but the right to vote, isn't one of them [I hope].

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

Source:
http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html


#53 Nonny

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 02:40 PM

I meant to post this earlier, had wifi issues while traveling, but did anybody see the Chris Rock ad?  I'm sure gaskets were blown over it, as well as much rolling on the floor.    :freakoutnonny:  :D
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Stupid is stupid, this I believe. And ignorance is the worst kind of stupid, since ignorance is a choice.  Suzanne Brockmann

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