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Nate Silver and the 538 blog

Nate Silver Elections 2012 538 blog NYTimes

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#61 Bobby

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 10:17 AM

View Postscherzo, on 04 November 2012 - 12:16 PM, said:

Quote

I like how the Rolling Stone article described Romney "Would you vote for the guy from Office Space who made you explain why you should get to keep your job?"
I guess that explains why the ass-clowns at Rolling Stone aren't asking 0bama to explain why HE should keep his job.

LOL, by your use of the term "ass-clown" I assume you've seen the movie!

I've actually stopped reading articles before in Rolling Stone because they were too slanted even for my tastes.  But they have been critical of Obama over a bunch of things,  especially the fact that he hasn't gone after the Wall Street guys who caused the meltdown.  Those are my favorite articles, where they explain the intricate schemes that traders cooked up in terms even I could understand.

Edited by LiberalBob, 05 November 2012 - 10:28 AM.


#62 Cheile

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 03:44 PM

for those of you going on about how the left is committing all the (nearly nonexistent) voter fraud, might want to remember that it's YOUR party doing things like this, this--and oh yea, this.

i'm not even in Riverside county, but i'm wondering if the last link explains why the hell i've sent in THREE forms asking my party affiliation to be changed and, as of this year's midterm elections, i was STILL listed as Republican.  :ranting: guess i'll find out tomorrow if the fourth form i submitted ACTUALLY got processed to do what i asked.  :rolleyes:

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#63 Cait

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Posted 05 November 2012 - 04:16 PM

View PostCheile, on 05 November 2012 - 03:44 PM, said:

for those of you going on about how the left is committing all the (nearly nonexistent) voter fraud, might want to remember that it's YOUR party doing things like this, this--and oh yea, this.

i'm not even in Riverside county, but i'm wondering if the last link explains why the hell i've sent in THREE forms asking my party affiliation to be changed and, as of this year's midterm elections, i was STILL listed as Republican.  :ranting: guess i'll find out tomorrow if the fourth form i submitted ACTUALLY got processed to do what i asked.  :rolleyes:

Good to see you Cheile.  You've been missed!  :)

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

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#64 Rhea

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 01:11 AM

Cheile! Yay!
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#65 BklnScott

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 02:08 PM

From Nate's final (?) update this morning:

Quote

Mr. Obama could secure the Electoral College by winning Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania, along with Ohio.


A win for Mr. Romney in Wisconsin would now qualify as a substantial upset. He has not led in a poll there since August, and an increasing number of surveys there instead show Mr. Obama five or more points ahead.


Mr. Obama’s margins have been narrower in Nevada, but Mr. Romney has a different type of problem there: perhaps 70 percent of the state has already voted, and Democrats have locked in roughly a 7-point advantage over Republicans from the vote so far. This margin is down for Democrats from 2008, but Mr. Romney would nevertheless need an exceptional turnout on Tuesday to make up enough ground.


This has led Mr. Romney to make a last-minute play for Pennsylvania, and there is some evidence that the state has tightened slightly. But the gains for Mr. Romney may be too little and too late, or they may have been counteracted by a national trend toward Mr. Obama. With the exception of one Republican polling firm, public polls of the state still have Mr. Obama leading by three to nine percentage points.


Moreover, Mr. Obama has a number of backup options were he to lose one or more of these states. In Iowa, Mr. Obama leads by about three percentage points in the average of polls, and by a similar margin in New Hampshire. Recent polls also suggest movement toward Mr. Obama in Colorado and Virginia, and he now appears to be favored in each one.


Florida remains too close to call.


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There isn't enough mommy in the world to further a cause like yours!

#66 cade

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 05:05 PM

Of course this is dwarfed by the many other things being decided today, but for the sake of science and reason against denialism and vapid political punditry. I hope those seeking to discredit the pollsters and statisticians aren't somehow proven right today. I understand we should have some skepticism, as the polls could be way off (Nate Silver says there's a 9% chance they will be), but many on the other side are going way beyond that in accusing the pollsters and election modelers of engaging in a conspiracy to re-elect Obama. I view this as another chapter in the battle over whether a large segment of the population will ever accept the legitimacy of the scientific method even when it leads to conclusions or probabilities they've been taught to dismiss.

#67 Balderdash

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 11:27 PM

Nate Silver is the man!  :D

Another Democrat leaning Independent that has to search for truth because it can't be found on Fox News OR MSNBC.



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#68 QueenTiye

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Posted 06 November 2012 - 11:42 PM

While I understood and agreed entirely with Nate's (and Ezra's) points that a Romney win would not prove the statistical models wrong, I am really glad that Obama won, thereby providing a false confirmation for those who insist on "feelings" and "guts" to explain why they think the statistical model was wrong.  I'll be interested to see Nate's post election analysis of what he got right or wrong.

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#69 Cait

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 12:07 AM

What I didn't expect is that the Dems picked up seats in the Senate, and held on to a few I thought were going to go to the GOP.  I didn't expect to see that happen.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

Source:
http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html


#70 Cardie

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 12:27 AM

My guys and gals won!

Once every four years I abandon my academically nuanced analysis to vent emotions. I promise to return to your usual Cardie tomorrow.
Nothing succeeds like excess.

#71 Omega

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 11:24 AM

Nate Silver called the election dead perfect. Every state was within his stated margins of error, and most were very close to dead center of those margins. He also called the popular vote very close to correct, and each Senate race as well.

The reality-based community once again proves more apt to handle reality properly than the gut-based community.

#72 Cardie

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 01:28 PM

Do you think the political pros in the Romney campaign and the RNC sincerely doubted the accuracy of the polling or just calculatedly cast doubt on it in order not to discourage--but rather to rile up--their supporters to turn out?

I'm always less scared of cynical manipulators than irrational true believers.
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#73 BklnScott

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 02:00 PM

I always thought Rove was one of the former but his meltdown last night on Fox News challenged that belief.  (Though Megyn Kelly -- who looks like a Stepford anchor -- did say they'd practiced the bit where she stalks down to the number crunchers to upbraid them.)

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#74 QueenTiye

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 03:03 PM

View PostBklnScott, on 07 November 2012 - 02:00 PM, said:

I always thought Rove was one of the former but his meltdown last night on Fox News challenged that belief.  (Though Megyn Kelly -- who looks like a Stepford anchor -- did say they'd practiced the bit where she stalks down to the number crunchers to upbraid them.)

What?  Why would she do that?  Why would THEY do that?  Was their point to do a bit of performance theater to prove once and for all that numbers crunchers are doing what they are supposed to do?

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#75 BklnScott

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Posted 07 November 2012 - 03:40 PM

Well, I'm not sure whether she just meant they practiced the technical elements involved in doing a walk-and-talk from one side of the building to the other in order to check in with the number crunchers on the "decision desk" or whether, knowing that the polls were accurate, they practiced a bit of -- as you say -- political theater in support of the crazy "unskewed polls" narrative.  But whether they intended to do the latter or not, that's what it became.  It was riveting television, for sure.

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There isn't enough mommy in the world to further a cause like yours!

#76 cade

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 08:15 AM

View PostCardie, on 07 November 2012 - 01:28 PM, said:

Do you think the political pros in the Romney campaign and the RNC sincerely doubted the accuracy of the polling or just calculatedly cast doubt on it in order not to discourage--but rather to rile up--their supporters to turn out?

I'm always less scared of cynical manipulators than irrational true believers.

Romney's donors are asking the same question:
http://www.politico....1112/83549.html

Quote

Advisers to Mitt Romney insisted Wednesday that they were surprised by the scale of their loss to President Barack Obama, while big-time GOP donors griped about the campaign’s unflinching confidence in the final stretch.
As results began to stream in Tuesday night, prominent Romney supporters in Boston tried to stay positive, reassuring themselves that there was still a path to the White House. But dejection quickly turned to anger a day after an Electoral College rout that shocked many who had heard self-assured projections about voter enthusiasm and turnout in private conference calls and meetings in the campaign’s final stretch.

Romney supporters point to a series of brash statements made by advisers that seem out of touch with reality in retrospect. Inside the Beltway, Republicans trained their fire on senior Romney advisers like Ed Gillespie and political director Rich Beeson for appearances on last weekend’s Sunday shows. Gillespie said the electoral map was expanding, and Beeson predicted a 300 electoral vote win for Romney.
“There were a lot of Republicans who were on calls that the campaign was having led to believe we had shots in Pennsylvania and Minnesota,” one Republican operative supporting Romney said. “I think Republicans are split right now between confused and shocked, and also I think they are wondering did the Romney campaign have numbers we didn’t have.”
In starker terms, the source questioned: “Was last week a head fake, or were they just not that smart?”

As a variation of the quote goes, I try not to attribute deception to that which can be adequately explained by ignorance, but Romney's campaign was by far the most dishonest I've ever seen, starting with that disgraceful ad they ran showing Obama saying, "If we keep talking about the economy, we'll lose." (omitting the fact that Obama was quoting a statement made by someone in McCain's campaign). I think their late plays for PA and MN were born out of desperation, not strength, meaning the internal polls they leaked were fake. But I do think they fooled themselves into believing the race was closer than it really was, putting way too much stock into "instinct" and anecdotal evidence and underestimating Obama's turnout machine. Another victory for numbers over "gut feelings."

I'm looking forward to Nate Silver's review of the pollsters. Rasmussen should be out of a job, and so should some pundits. Hopefully this will serve as a wakeup call for the irrational true believers to at least get new sources. Not like this is the first time Rasmussen and Fox News have been horribly wrong, yet people keep going back for more.

Edited by cade, 08 November 2012 - 08:17 AM.


#77 Nonny

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Posted 08 November 2012 - 09:05 AM

Wow, looks like I should pay attention to this guy.  Thanks for bringing him to my attention.
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