Cardie, on 07 November 2012 - 01:28 PM, said:
Do you think the political pros in the Romney campaign and the RNC sincerely doubted the accuracy of the polling or just calculatedly cast doubt on it in order not to discourage--but rather to rile up--their supporters to turn out?
I'm always less scared of cynical manipulators than irrational true believers.
Romney's donors are asking the same question:
Advisers to Mitt Romney
insisted Wednesday that they were surprised by the scale of their loss to President Barack Obama, while big-time GOP donors griped about the campaign’s unflinching confidence in the final stretch.
As results began to stream in Tuesday night, prominent Romney supporters in Boston tried to stay positive, reassuring themselves that there was still a path to the White House. But dejection quickly turned to anger a day after an Electoral College rout that shocked many who had heard self-assured projections about voter enthusiasm and turnout in private conference calls and meetings in the campaign’s final stretch.
Romney supporters point to a series of brash statements made by advisers that seem out of touch with reality in retrospect. Inside the Beltway, Republicans trained their fire on senior Romney advisers like Ed Gillespie and political director Rich Beeson for appearances on last weekend’s Sunday shows. Gillespie said the electoral map was expanding, and Beeson predicted a 300 electoral vote win for Romney.
“There were a lot of Republicans who were on calls that the campaign was having led to believe we had shots in Pennsylvania and Minnesota,” one Republican operative supporting Romney said. “I think Republicans are split right now between confused and shocked, and also I think they are wondering did the Romney campaign have numbers we didn’t have.”
In starker terms, the source questioned: “Was last week a head fake, or were they just not that smart?”
As a variation of the quote goes, I try not to attribute deception to that which can be adequately explained by ignorance, but Romney's campaign was by far the most dishonest I've ever seen, starting with that disgraceful ad they ran showing Obama saying, "If we keep talking about the economy, we'll lose." (omitting the fact that Obama was quoting a statement made by someone in McCain's campaign). I think their late plays for PA and MN were born out of desperation, not strength, meaning the internal polls they leaked were fake. But I do think they fooled themselves into believing the race was closer than it really was, putting way too much stock into "instinct" and anecdotal evidence and underestimating Obama's turnout machine. Another victory for numbers over "gut feelings."
I'm looking forward to Nate Silver's review of the pollsters. Rasmussen should be out of a job, and so should some pundits. Hopefully this will serve as a wakeup call for the irrational true believers to at least get new sources. Not like this is the first time Rasmussen and Fox News have been horribly wrong, yet people keep going back for more.
Edited by cade, 08 November 2012 - 08:17 AM.