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Record return of Arctic ice cap

global warming

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#1 scherzo

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Posted 09 September 2013 - 12:35 AM

Arctic ice OK! :thumbs-up: Good news right!?!

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By David Rose
PUBLISHED: 18:37 EST, 7 September 2013 | UPDATED: 07:01 EST, 8 September 2013
A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.

The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.
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The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.

In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’.

The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter  climate change.

Those predictions now appear gravely flawed.

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#2 Godeskian

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Posted 09 September 2013 - 12:44 AM

I think there's a buddhist quote about knowing how much you don't know.

The predictive models supported by the scientific community at large said global warming, but the final arbiter is always reality. Obviously there's either a flaw in the model, or a variable unaccounted for. As Asimov once put it 'the most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka' but 'That's funny..'

I'm inclined to see this as good news overall.

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#3 Spectacles

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Posted 09 September 2013 - 05:48 AM

With climate science, it's always tempting to look at a cold winter or arctic ice build-up and say "See? No global warming!" Or, to flip it, "Omygodit's hottodayclimatechange!"

The big picture--changes over time--is what measures climate change as opposed to weather.

It is indeed good news that ice has recovered a bit in the Arctic. I hope it's the start of a trend, but then there's this:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

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Figure 3. Monthly August ice extent for 1979 to 2013 shows a decline of 10.6% per decade.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center


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The seasonal decline of extent through the month of August was slightly above average at 56,400 square kilometers (21,800 square miles) per day, but more than a third slower than the record decline rate in August 2012. This year’s August extent was the sixth lowest in the 1979 to 2013 satellite record.

August 2013 ice extent was 2.38 million square kilometers (919,000 square miles) above the record low August extent in 2012. The monthly trend is –10.6% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.

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#4 Omega

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Posted 09 September 2013 - 09:52 AM

If a straight line fit is required, use only two data points...

#5 scherzo

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Posted 09 September 2013 - 07:35 PM

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With climate science, it's always tempting to look at a cold winter or arctic ice build-up and say "See? No global warming!" Or, to flip it, "Omygodit's hottodayclimatechange!"
It's far more tempting to see global warming soothsayers' consistently inaccurate predictions and say..."you people actually have no idea what the hell you're talking about do you?" Especially when our elected masterminds are using this handy science, as leverage to introduce sweeping new regulations to SAVE THE WORLD!

Our A$$hole President decided years ago he would DELIBERATELY make energy more expensive in the name of this crackpot fantasy.(honestly...if he were drowning I'd toss him a car battery) You'd think we'd at least demand consistency in the basic THEORY, but that changes whenever the actual weather doesn't cooperate with the goofy models. But of course...the people riding this hoax for all it's worth couldn't care less if it's good science or not.
"Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so."    -Ronald Reagan, October 27 1964
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#6 Spectacles

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 08:10 AM

So what did you think of this chart? Bad science?

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"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#7 scherzo

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 09:46 AM

View PostSpectacles, on 10 September 2013 - 08:10 AM, said:

So what did you think of this chart? Bad science?

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I think your chart doesn't refute a single word of the Daily Mail's report, or make the Warming Alarmists predictions about 2013 any less embarrassing. I think Planet Earth was not created in 1978. I think your use of sarcasm here is just plain weird in the face of this latest news. Hope that helps.
"Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so."    -Ronald Reagan, October 27 1964
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#8 Thia The Muse

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 10:12 AM

So, we got a lot of ice thjis year, but in general the caps are still shrinking. So the prediction was wrong, so what? Most predictions are wrong, especieely about weather. If the weather man says it will rain and then it doesn't we don't stop believeing in rain.

Of course the chart doesn't refute the article. The article says "Hey, we got a lot of ice!", and so does the chart. But the thing is, the article doesn't refute the chart.
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#9 Spectacles

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 10:55 AM

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Scherzo: I think your chart doesn't refute a single word of the Daily Mail's report, or make the Warming Alarmists predictions about 2013 any less embarrassing. I think Planet Earth was not created in 1978. I think your use of sarcasm here is just plain weird in the face of this latest news. Hope that helps.

So...putting the news in context is not important? Yes, the ice grew, as did in 2009--before plummeting. And the 90s were apparently boom years for arctic ice as much as Wall Street. Even so, the artic ice has been on a shrinking tragectory, despite some good years.

Like I said in my first post: There are reactionaries on both sides of this debate, people who look at one data point and make all kinds of predictions from it: "Global warming is upon us! We're doomed!" "No, climate scientists are full-of-sh*t commies who want to subjugate us by *falls over frothing at mouth*."

Now, maybe this is a turning point. I hope so. Certainly people who predicted that the Arctic would be a warm bowl of soup by now were wrong.

But how representative are they of arctic climate scientists?

From 2012:

http://www.climate-l...ea-ice-in-2013/

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Arctic sea ice in 2013

Posted on August 31, 2012 by Ed Hawkins
A very simple straw poll today – will the Arctic sea ice extent in September 2013 be more or less than September 2012? Hoping for views and expectations from public and scientists alike.

UPDATE: (06/09/12)
Around 80% of the ~100 scientists at the Bjerknes conference thought that there would be MORE Arctic sea-ice in 2013, compared to 2012

If that is true, it does not look like the arctic-as-seal-soup-by-2013 theory was universally held among climate scientists last year.

And if one data point a turning point makes, then hysterics on both sides of the issue are right. The ice saw a record decline this year! Proof of global warming--case closed.
The ice saw a record increase this year! Proof that global warming is a myth--case closed.

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Thia: Of course the chart doesn't refute the article. The article says "Hey, we got a lot of ice!", and so does the chart. But the thing is, the article doesn't refute the chart.

Exactly.
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"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#10 scherzo

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 11:08 AM

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If the weather man says it will rain and then it doesn't we don't stop believeing in rain.
The weather man will probably lose me when he says WE made it rain though.

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Of course the chart doesn't refute the article. The article says "Hey, we got a lot of ice!", and so does the chart. But the thing is, the article doesn't refute the chart.
It surely doesn't. Which is why I would not have posted the article, if the chart were the original subject of this thread. What the article does do, is blow another crackpot warming alarmist prediction to bits. I'd call that a pretty good days work.
"Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so."    -Ronald Reagan, October 27 1964
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#11 Omega

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Posted 10 September 2013 - 12:58 PM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
The actual BBC report, if anyone's interested. Definitely of interest that this one prediction was an outlier even at the time it was made.

#12 sierraleone

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 11:30 AM

The extent of the arctic ice cap (amount of area it covers) is not necessarily the same as the amount of volume of the arctic ice cap (which would take into account the thickness of the ice). Thin one year ice is more prone to melting the next summer compared to thick multi-year ice (ice that has survived and not melted previous summers).

Here are some graphs for the volume/thickness:

http://psc.apl.washi...y_heff.2sst.png

http://psc.apl.washi...p echo time() ?
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#13 Spectacles

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Posted 22 September 2013 - 10:32 AM

I was wondering more about this "crackpot" who predicted no arctic sea ice by 2013 and found this, which, interestingly enough, seems to have been left out this "gotcha" moment by the anti-science right:

http://www.sciencepo..._disappearance/



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Maslowski and Team Offer New Estimate on Summer Arctic Sea Ice Disappearance

11.04.2011 - Water & Oceans, Ice & Snow, Arctic
Wiesław Maslowski and his team from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, USA presented a new and improved computer model predicting Arctic sea ice behaviour over the coming years at the 2011 European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Vienna, Austria.  The model predicts that increasing summer sea ice melt could lead to an ice-free Arctic during at least part of the boreal (northern hemisphere) summer by 2016, with a margin of error of plus or minus three years.

Dr Maslowski’s previous model had predicted the Arctic to be seasonally ice-free in the summer by 2013 – an estimate that many experts criticized. [But let's pretend not!]

Factoring in criticisms he received about the original model, Maslowski and his team came up with a new computer model which is supposed to reproduce real-world couplings (interactions) between the Arctic Ocean, the atmosphere, sea ice and rivers that transport freshwater from land to the ocean.  The new model is “very similar to the global climate models” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) uses in its assessments.
The new model also incorporates new data on the thickness of sea ice – which satellites (such as Cryosat-2) are now able to measure more accurately.  This new data was one of the reasons Maslowski and his team moved their estimate for summer sea ice disappearance back a few years.

However other experts still remain skeptical about such an early date for the seasonal disappearance of Arctic sea ice.  Dr Walt Weiner from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder, believes that other predictions, which put seasonal Arctic sea ice disappearance closer to 2040 or 2050, to be more likely.

But now that the sea ice disappeared less this summer, we know that these people are idiots, possibly "commanisses."

Or something like that.
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#14 Spectacles

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:00 AM

http://www.youtube.c...DI#action=share
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#15 BklnScott

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:15 AM

I love that guy.  He's like snopes for junk science.

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#16 SparkyCola

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:23 AM

The Daily Mail is not a source. It's a "friend of a friend of a friend told a joke down the pub once and I'm reporting it here as fact lol". Sorry, won't go near any link which is going to that junk site.
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