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Interesting look ahead at Clinton's chances in 2016

Politics Hillary Clinton 2016 Presidential run 2014

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#1 Spectacles

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:20 AM

From Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center:



Quote

Will Obama drag down Hillary in 2016?

By ANDREW KOHUT
January 06, 2014

There’s no question that Hillary Clinton would make a formidable presidential candidate. She routinely polls as America’s most admired figure, and voters gave her high marks during her tenure as the country’s top diplomat. But Hillary Clinton has a potential problem. His name is Barack Obama.
While she had to contend with “Clinton fatigue” in 2008, “Obama fatigue” is her potential stumbling block this time. Should dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and disapproval of Obama persist as 2016 approaches, the former secretary of state may well struggle to position herself as an agent of change.

For now, she is once again the early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Public views of her are much like what they were as she looked ahead to her first presidential run. In fact, Clinton’s current Pew Research Center favorability rating is almost identical to what it was in 2005. The profile of her most enthusiastic fans resembles her initial constituency, before Obama emerged as a viable candidate. And when tested, she is the hands-down favorite to become the Democrats’ standard-bearer in 2016. For the moment, there’s simply no other contender in sight.


But at the same time, disillusionment with Obama could significantly undermine her current standing. The president’s approval numbers at the start of 2014 are in the low 40s in both the Gallup and Pew Research Center polls—10 points lower than in January 2013, and markedly lower than Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton’s ratings as they entered their eighth years in office. More ominously for Democrats, Obama’s personal image has slipped. Over the course of 2013, the percentage of the public viewing Obama as “able to get things done” fell from 57 percent to 43 percent, and those regarding him as “trustworthy” slipped from 59 percent to 50 percent.

Kohut goes on to explain that H.W. Bush's campaign in 88 suffered until Reagan's numbers, which had fallen, improved in the summer.

It's just a given that if a candidate is associated with a sitting president, the president's popularity--or lack thereof--will affect the candidate's standing with the public. Gore suffered from "Clinton fatigue" in 2000 and McCain, though not in Bush's administration, suffered merely from being a Republican after the smoking ruins Bush/Cheney left behind.

Unless Obama has a better year, we will most likely have a Republican president, no matter who the Dems run.

Kohut continues:

Quote

Potential problems notwithstanding, Clinton’s national image is quite strong, even though her ratings have dipped a bit since leaving Foggy Bottom. A 56 percent majority of respondents in an October Pew Research Center nationwide survey rated her favorably, somewhat lower than she tested in December 2012 (65 percent) near the end of her term as secretary of state.

But there’s little indication that Republican criticisms of her handling of last September’s attacks in Benghazi, Libya, have seriously eroded her public standing. The Washington Post polling unit noted that the dip in her polls this year was concentrated among conservatives, and “despite the modest erosion in what was sky-high support, Clinton remains among the most popular secretaries of state in recent history, matching or exceeding Condoleezza Rice and Madeleine Albright’s popularity and far more popular than Donald Rumsfeld, Warren Christopher and Alexander Haig.”

A dip in popularity among conservatives means nothing because they won't vote for her anyway. But she is likely to be vulnerable nevertheless if the country has a strong case of Obama fatigue in 2016 because she was in his cabinet. The Dems may be better off fielding a complete outsider..... But I think that voters may care more about experience this time around. If so, she'll be in a good position.




Read more: http://www.politico....l#ixzz2pjFYeWUq


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#2 BklnScott

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 03:00 PM

Isn't she inoculated due to the bitter primary fight?  People who are sick of Obama will remember that Hillary said he wasn't ready - and people who love him will remember that Hillary was a good soldier.  

Clintonian triangulation at its best.

Edited by BklnScott, 07 January 2014 - 03:01 PM.

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#3 offworlder

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 03:33 PM

leave it up to pol research types, but,

I still have not seen her interested, say she wants it, and you
Cannot! even think of doing that unless you are All In, you really want it,
coz the cost is astronomical, it's what over half a billion dollars to run??

and at her age, she would turn 70 during the first term, I think that weighs on her;
doesnt she want to slow down some and not have bitter fights anymore beside? is she
not ready for a mellow final life?
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#4 Spectacles

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 03:53 PM

View PostBklnScott, on 07 January 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

Isn't she inoculated due to the bitter primary fight?  People who are sick of Obama will remember that Hillary said he wasn't ready - and people who love him will remember that Hillary was a good soldier.  

Clintonian triangulation at its best.

That's an excellent point, all the way around. :)
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#5 Spectacles

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 04:02 PM

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offworlder: and at her age, she would turn 70 during the first term, I think that weighs on her

I think so, too. I'll be turning 60 this coming December and I'm counting the days until I'm 62 and can afford to retire (thanks to social security, which is a damned nice supplement to my retirement account). I cannot imagine wanting to have what must be one of the world's most stressful jobs at 70. But Reagan did it and McCain wanted to. In fact, quite a few of our politicians truly are elder statespeople.

And people are different. My health generally sucks, so I need to retire. I have colleagues, though, who are still teaching at 78. It all depends on the person.

Quote

you
Cannot! even think of doing that unless you are All In, you really want it,
coz the cost is astronomical, it's what over half a billion dollars to run??

I'm pretty sure she knows all the costs, financial, physical and personal, having been there for many years. And I think no one would blame her if she said, "that's enough of that crap" and decided to keep busy with her family and the Clinton Global Initiative. She may yet decide that she'd prefer to do that.

Edited by Spectacles, 07 January 2014 - 04:03 PM.

"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#6 Balderdash

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 04:17 PM

View PostBklnScott, on 07 January 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

Isn't she inoculated due to the bitter primary fight?  People who are sick of Obama will remember that Hillary said he wasn't ready - and people who love him will remember that Hillary was a good soldier.  

Clintonian triangulation at its best.

She was a good soldier, much to my initial consternation but it really was the right thing to do.  I went to her "thank you, now lets be good Democrats" speech and sobbed during most of it.  I knew it was time to let it go.  Anyway, if she wants to run I am there.

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#7 Christopher

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:31 PM

I seem to recall that the pundits' early predictions about Obama in the previous two presidential elections tended to be pretty far off the mark. The only person who's gotten it right is Nate Silver, because he uses math.
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#8 Spectacles

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:38 PM

Well, Kohut's looking at numbers, too. :)

As for Silver, he's said that Hillary is the strongest non-incumbent primary candidate ever:

http://www.theatlant...nt-ever/277337/
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#9 Dev F

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:30 PM

View PostBklnScott, on 07 January 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

Isn't she inoculated due to the bitter primary fight?  People who are sick of Obama will remember that Hillary said he wasn't ready - and people who love him will remember that Hillary was a good soldier.  

Clintonian triangulation at its best.
She's also in a position to triangulate beyond mere personal politics -- to capture Obama's supporters by standing with the president in an ideological sense, while courting those who have been frustrated with his presidency by running against him on practical grounds. She can say, essentially, "I think the president is a good man who had the best interests of the country at heart, but he kind of sucked at management and implementation, and I can do better."

#10 Cait

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:53 PM

The triangulation should be made easier because she left the current Administration at the end of the first term.  Obama's popularity isn't likely to make a full rebound in his last term, and, his record of management and implementation is a poor one overall.  The inexperience meme will stick like glue to him post-Presidency.  

Hillary doesn't have the "inexperience" meme to deal with.  She has the "DC insider" meme to contend with, but I'm not sure how much mileage one can get from that one any longer.  The Tea Party has literally destroyed the "DC insider" as an attack against a candidate.  Experience is looking pretty damn good to a lot of people.  Between Obama and the Tea Party, insiders with a lot of experience would look damn good.  

Hillary has at least a few years to wipe some of the stink of Obama's incompetence off.  Biden doesn't have that luxury.  He has to own the whole 8 years or face the same end as Gore.  I've been through a few Presidential primaries, and to be honest, I don't recall any non-incumbent with her numbers either, but then I didn't really know what her current numbers were.

But then, I'm surprised any Democrat is seriously thinking of making a move before she decides.  It might be unfair to those possible candidates, but she holds all the cards on the Democratic side of the political spectrum up to the moment she decides.

It will be a lot more interesting [and entertaining] to watch the Republican primaries come primary season.

View PostSpectacles, on 07 January 2014 - 07:38 PM, said:


As for Silver, he's said that Hillary is the strongest non-incumbent primary candidate ever:

http://www.theatlant...nt-ever/277337/

Coming from Nate Silver, that is really a meaningful remark, but a lot can happen between now and the primary season.

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#11 Christopher

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:19 PM

View PostSpectacles, on 07 January 2014 - 07:38 PM, said:

Well, Kohut's looking at numbers, too. :)

Looking at numbers isn't enough. Pollsters have been looking at numbers for generations and haven't had much luck with prognostication. You have to analyze them the right way, and Silver's algorithms have proven unusually successful.
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#12 NeuralClone

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 10:07 PM

View PostChristopher, on 07 January 2014 - 07:31 PM, said:

I seem to recall that the pundits' early predictions about Obama in the previous two presidential elections tended to be pretty far off the mark. The only person who's gotten it right is Nate Silver, because he uses math.
Also known as gobbledygook in some circles. ;)
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#13 Omega

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Posted 08 January 2014 - 08:13 AM

Gobbledygook that predicts the future with great accuracy is ignored at your peril. :)

Edited by Omega, 08 January 2014 - 08:13 AM.


#14 Spectacles

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Posted 08 January 2014 - 08:22 AM

View PostChristopher, on 07 January 2014 - 09:19 PM, said:

View PostSpectacles, on 07 January 2014 - 07:38 PM, said:

Well, Kohut's looking at numbers, too. :)

Looking at numbers isn't enough. Pollsters have been looking at numbers for generations and haven't had much luck with prognostication. You have to analyze them the right way, and Silver's algorithms have proven unusually successful.

Good point. I also agree with Cait: Silver's saying Hillary's the strongest non-encumbent ever going into a primary race was valid when he said it. But as we've all seen, politicians' popularity can and likely will fluctuate.

After all, she was considered "inevitable" in some circles in 2007, before the 2008 primaries started in December 2007.

Edited by Spectacles, 08 January 2014 - 08:24 AM.

"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman



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