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Options for the U.S. and Europe's response to Russia's aggress

Ukraine Russia Aggression in Crimea 2014 Europe

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#1 Spectacles

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 09:14 AM

Thought this might be a good topic for a thread by itself.

While I personally would like to go to Ukraine and shake my cane at Russia, use of force is generally considered an unwise option.

Here's a good article laying out the options--military, diplomatic, and economic--their pros and cons, complications and limitations:

http://swampland.tim...ama-war-crimea/
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#2 sierraleone

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 05:25 PM

Anyone suggest the following tongue-in-cheek suggestion? Russia can give passports to any ethnic Russians in crimea and Ukraine cannot restrict their movement to Russia if Russian governance is what they desire so much? Heck, sweeten the deal and the EU/US will *support* their movement to Russia if that is what they desire ;) (I was meaning assist monetarily, but other means could work too :angelnot:  call it logistical support :p )

Edited by sierraleone, 05 March 2014 - 07:31 PM.

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Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
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#3 BklnScott

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 06:04 PM

There's a Yakov Smirnoff joke in there somewhere.  If you're Russian, the country comes to you!

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#4 offworlder

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 07:10 PM

well it might not be sanctions- Germany would not want to bite the hand?

http://www.bloomberg...ng-options.html

see the EU parts, the Merkel parts, the Germany parts, EU sell a lot to Russia, and buy, massive trade deals, so much not only stuffs but also profits would be lost, shake up the whole regional economy- so maybe Germany(and EU) just discuss and dither?


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#5 FnlPrblm

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 11:11 AM

View PostBklnScott, on 05 March 2014 - 06:04 PM, said:

There's a Yakov Smirnoff joke in there somewhere. If you're Russian, the country comes to you!

:lol:  Live from Moscow, Missouri

View Postsierraleone, on 05 March 2014 - 05:25 PM, said:

Anyone suggest the following tongue-in-cheek suggestion? Russia can give passports to any ethnic Russians in crimea and Ukraine cannot restrict their movement to Russia if Russian governance is what they desire so much? Heck, sweeten the deal and the EU/US will *support* their movement to Russia if that is what they desire ;) (I was meaning assist monetarily, but other means could work too :angelnot: call it logistical support :p )

Logical, yes.  But we all know that Putin/Russia really want the territory surrounding their military airports & bases (which they have to pay millions to have the right to keep them there).  Amongst other things, as in the mere strategic significance of that territory.

View Postoffworlder, on 05 March 2014 - 07:10 PM, said:

well it might not be sanctions- Germany would not want to bite the hand? http://www.bloomberg...ng-options.html see the EU parts, the Merkel parts, the Germany parts, EU sell a lot to Russia, and buy, massive trade deals, so much not only stuffs but also profits would be lost, shake up the whole regional economy- so maybe Germany(and EU) just discuss and dither?

Oh Boy...

But that is all true as far as the material grip Russia has over most of eastern Europe.

Does anyone know if part of W. Bush's "Star Wars Defense" grid is in the Ukraine?
"It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." --- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes: The Beryl Coronet

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#6 Omega

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 11:17 AM

Can we deport Justin Bieber to Russia?

#7 Chakoteya

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 11:19 AM

Well, the Crimea parliament have voted to become a full satellite region of Russia
http://www.bbc.co.uk...europe-26465962
and the people in the autonomous region will get to vote in a referendum.
However, vox pops suggest that the residents of the Crimea are happy with being part of Ukraine, so that is something to keep an eye on.
Meanwhile, is stopping the oligarchs from shopping at Harrods and Macys really going to be a big deal for them?
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Just because I didn't post a reply doesn't mean I wasn't tempted to.

#8 Lin731

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 11:38 AM

I don't really think the EU has any real response to this since they are dependent on Russian oil and Russia is one of their biggest trading partners. Plus Russia said it would freeze assets from any European companies from countries that place sanctions on them. So I don't see the EU doing much.
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#9 tennyson

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Posted 06 March 2014 - 02:34 PM

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Does anyone know if part of W. Bush's "Star Wars Defense" grid is in the Ukraine?

There are no parts of the national missile defense system in the Ukraine. As far as I know it hadn't been proposed.

#10 FnlPrblm

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 07:23 AM

Thanks Tennyson
"It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." --- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes: The Beryl Coronet

The Boscombe Valley Mystery: "There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact."

"Nothing astonishes men so much as common sense and plain dealing." --- Ralph Waldo Emerson 'Art,' 1841

"Such welcome and unwelcome things at once, 'Tis hard to reconcile." --- Macbeth IV.III.138-9


LauraBertram.net

"Once in one's life, for one mortal moment, one must make a grab for immortality; if not, one has not lived." -- Sylvester Stallone

Time to eat all your words, swallow your pride, open your eyes...Sowing the Seeds of Love - Tears4Fears

#11 Lord of the Sword

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 11:06 AM

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Putin can also be threatened with the prospect of international isolation. As Russia’s economy has grown, it has sought accession to most of the world’s large international bodies such as the World Trade Organization, which it joined in 2012 after 18 years of negotiations, and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, to which its been waiting 16 years to join. “The U.S. can block that and will block that now,” Pifer says.


If the US does this, then Putin just might decide to block the "visas" of the US astronauts on the space station.
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#12 Chakoteya

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 11:55 AM

Looks like the only winning move is not to play.
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Just because I didn't post a reply doesn't mean I wasn't tempted to.

#13 Lin731

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 12:31 PM

View PostChakoteya, on 11 March 2014 - 11:55 AM, said:

Looks like the only winning move is not to play.
If we live by those rules, than China and the US can do whatever they like as well, so long as they have other countries over a barrel. What is the point of nato or the UN if all they ever do is finger wag and pass meaningless resolutions?
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#14 Omega

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 01:09 PM

NATO keeps Russia from just straight-up invading countries like Lithuania, and probably the rest of Ukraine. The UN does a lot of good work, but they were never intended to be a forum for pushing the great powers around. If they tried, they'd just fall apart.

It's all about incentives. The only way to get a sovereign actor to play well with others is to make it more in their interest to do so than otherwise. Same thing with humans in a society. The benefits of being part of society have to be great enough that removing them from me hurts more than what I could possibly gain by breaking the rules. But conversely, the loss of me can't hurt society more than the damage I'd do if they kept me around. There have to be alternatives, a large number of actors, for punishment to be viable. In a two-sided relationship, the whole thing doesn't work.

What will hopefully come of this is for Russia, not to become isolated, but to become expendable. That will take time. Until they become both more integrated and less critical, there will be very little that can be done to prevent this kind of thing.

Well, short of a 100% effective missile shield, and even then I'm not a fan of a gigantic war.

#15 BklnScott

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 04:02 PM

View PostLord of the Sword, on 11 March 2014 - 11:06 AM, said:

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Putin can also be threatened with the prospect of international isolation. As Russia’s economy has grown, it has sought accession to most of the world’s large international bodies such as the World Trade Organization, which it joined in 2012 after 18 years of negotiations, and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, to which its been waiting 16 years to join. “The U.S. can block that and will block that now,” Pifer says.


If the US does this, then Putin just might decide to block the "visas" of the US astronauts on the space station.

Well, I'm sure Russia could stop giving us rides to the ISS but their space program's launch center is in Kazakhstan.

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#16 Spectacles

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 12:44 PM

http://www.reuters.c...EA2B0QJ20140312
"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#17 Spectacles

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 01:00 PM

http://www.nytimes.c...putin.html?_r=0



Quote

Ms. Merkel, 59, a Protestant pastor’s daughter, grew up in East Germany under a system in which Mr. Putin, 61, once had a hand, as a K.G.B. agent stationed in Dresden. Fluent in Russian, she literally speaks his language and, arguably, understands his view of the world better than any other European leader touched by the Ukrainian crisis. Continue reading the main story
Related Coverage
It was, by her spokesman’s account, tough talk between two leaders who seemingly could not be more different but who are bound by a shared history. According to advisers in both Berlin and Moscow, the two leaders are unafraid to voice their disagreements and they often heed each other.

For all the familiarity, and despite hundreds of hours spent together during more than a decade as the leaders of their respective countries, Ms. Merkel has so far been unable to bridge the gap with Mr. Putin on Ukraine. She appears exasperated by his unwillingness to avoid further provocative steps, much less de-escalate the crisis — she reportedly told President Obama after one recent conversation with the Russian leader that Mr. Putin was in “another world” — and her government is increasingly signaling a willingness to lead Europe toward a harder line on sanctions and other steps to pressure and isolate Russia.

In confronting the limits of her personal diplomacy, Ms. Merkel is not just at a potential turning point in the Ukraine crisis, but also in her own nation’s decades-long debate over how assertive a role to play on the world stage. The nations of Eastern Europe, with Russia looming large over them, are pressing her to be stronger in confronting Mr. Putin. The United States continues to push for more tangible steps than Germany and the rest of the European Union have been willing to embrace so far.

If nothing else, for Ms. Merkel and German leaders across the spectrum, the failure so far to talk Mr. Putin into calming the situation is a blow to their preferred approach to global politics: consensus, painstaking negotiation and the avoidance of ultimatums, let alone force.

"Facts are stupid things." -Ronald Reagan at the 1988 Republican National Convention, attempting to quote John Adams, who said, "Facts are stubborn things"

"Although health care enrollment is actually going pretty well at this point, thousands and maybe millions of Americans have failed to sign up for coverage because they believe the false horror stories they keep hearing." -- Paul Krugman

#18 offworlder

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 05:34 PM

another question for the US response is, just who is who, who is really who and who are they really, over there?
yes, we are for self determination, and Sov, erm, Russian propaganda about fascisti is not going to change our minds about self determination, even when we remember the the German public voted in the Nazi power in 1933 (though I bet today's twentysomethings working Americans dont know about that)-

But while Barack meets with this interem guy in White House, we will forget his name because a new batch of MPs come in with this self determining election, and he wont be the guy, and so who, and which, and who are anyone really?

http://www.nytimes.c...o-wield-it.html

Hey, why dont we send this guy down to ole Crimea town, while this semi demi PM guy whine to White House about loans and monies and sanctions and Oh Do Somthing; no one else in Ukraine is doing much about Crimea, so hey send this guy Yarosh down there eh

' Mr. Yarosh’s bid for office, political commentators here say, is best understood as the latest maneuver in the ceaseless churn and infighting among the leadership of western Ukrainian nationalist groups — White Hammer, Patriots of Ukraine and the Trident of Stepan Bandera, the organization Mr. Yarosh helped found in the early 1990s. Setting this contest, between Svoboda and Right Sector, apart are the extraordinarily high geopolitical stakes today in a crisis the British foreign minister called the worst in Europe of the 21st century.

“A lot of people fear that Maidan brought to power the old establishment,” said Vadim Karasev, director of the Institute of Global Strategy, a policy research organization in Kiev, referring to the protest site. In that atmosphere, he added, Mr. Yarosh has a distinct advantage: “He popped out of the square like a jack-in-the-box.”

In outlining his platform on Saturday, Mr. Yarosh made a conciliatory opening statement in Russian and then described a political agenda that includes reimposing Ukrainian as the country’s official language, signing a trade agreement with the European Union but not seeking full membership, and instituting a top-to-bottom reform of the Interior Ministry. Mr. Yarosh called for a European embargo on Russian oil and gas purchases.

In contrast, the interim government led by the acting president, Oleksandr V. Turchynov of the Fatherland party, has vetoed a law that would have eliminated Russian as a second official language and is striving to work with the existing police force, domestic intelligence agency personnel and army rather than immediately instituting sweeping changes.

For the interim government, Right Sector has been invaluable in securing power, and potentially acting as a deterrent against any Russian intervention in the rest of Ukraine. On the other hand, the group has been named by the Kremlin as a justification for its military intervention.

Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said on Saturday that the interim government, “to our huge regret, is dependent on the radical nationalists who seized power in an armed attack.”

Mr. Lavrov said, “Effectively, there is no state control whatsoever over public order, and the music is dictated by the so-called Right Sector, which operates by the methods of terror and intimidation.”

So,
there is Svoboda, Fatherland, Right sector, and others, and will have clutches of seats between 5 and 15 percent each type thing; so there will be some pact gov like those when there is no majority, you know how those work so well in UK right?
so just who is who and who will play, and will US play with just who?

and will ANYONE defend what is called Ukraine soil, like those down there oh so bravely and true defended Crimea when armed masked thugs came in without any shot spoiling the silence?

"(Do you read what they say online?) I check out all these scandalous rumours about me and Elijah Wood having beautiful sex with each other ... (are they true?) About Elijah and me being boyfriend and boyfriend? Absolutely true. We've been together for about nine years. I wooed him. No I just like a lot of stuff - I like that someone says one thing and it becomes fact. It's kind of fun." --Dominic Monaghan in a phone interview with Newsweek while buying DVDs at the store. :D

#19 offworlder

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 07:12 PM

so should Ukraine just go back in and establish in the Crimea?

Putin, who is Russia, is saying today Hey Dont blame Russia, it's not us,
for internal Ukraine things; so those Russian troops and navy taking and blocking
and road blocks and blocking troop bases, and ships, it's not them right? I mean,
he said it right there;
so why dont those Ukraine, yes those ones who didnt fire a shot or slam a door or do one
thing to stop this masked men incursion, just send the reinforcement brigades to open
back up the bases, get those circled troops out, re-establish, chase out those dang
terrorists in masks , those ones Putin says hey they are not ours?? do it now.

and then have the navy ships sail right on out, push out the sunken wrecks blocking,
hire a utility mover ship like some dredger, heavy utility oh hell you know those barges
and ships, and escort with two frigates, get that stuff out, and no more trapped
ships right? and no more problem and friction and what the hell??

Stand up for your freakin selves now why dont you beside whinging to Washington
city eh

dont they have a Patton?

Let the civic resolution vote thing happen because hey you WANT to know what the majority
in Crimea want, but it happens with the Russian ships that are not Russian, and without
the masked men because you shot and chased them out of there, and so it happens within,
within, Ukraine, and Kieyov gets to see what Crimea really says and wants, and if some
minority really want to be some Soviet style commie livin' thing then work out a way those
people can have some of that autonomously, maybe right beside just east of Crimea, and they
can even get close trade and support from their bosum budds the Soviets, Kiev can allow
that, hell be magnanimus, but from a confident position of standing up for your freakin
selves already.


"(Do you read what they say online?) I check out all these scandalous rumours about me and Elijah Wood having beautiful sex with each other ... (are they true?) About Elijah and me being boyfriend and boyfriend? Absolutely true. We've been together for about nine years. I wooed him. No I just like a lot of stuff - I like that someone says one thing and it becomes fact. It's kind of fun." --Dominic Monaghan in a phone interview with Newsweek while buying DVDs at the store. :D

#20 ilexx

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 03:10 AM

View PostSpectacles, on 12 March 2014 - 12:44 PM, said:


Well, for all it's worth, the tone has changed decidedly since yesterday: http://www.huffingto..._n_4955484.html

Quote

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday that Russia risks "massive" political and economic consequences if Moscow does not enter into "negotiations that achieve results" over the situation in Ukraine.

Quote

"If Russia continues on its course of the past weeks that will not only be a great catastrophe for Ukraine..." Merkel said in the nationally televised address. "It will cause massive damage to Russia, both economically and politically."
She said Russia's decision to deploy troops into Ukraine's strategic Crimean Peninsula was a clear breach of international law, and that Moscow was bullying its weaker neighbor with methods reminiscent of 19th century European power politics.

Quote

"Let me be absolutely clear so that there is no misunderstanding, the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not up for discussion," she said.




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