

#1
Posted 16 February 2016 - 04:22 PM
Once we have nominations, I'll begin a thread for the actual election.
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#2
Posted 16 February 2016 - 05:52 PM
Feb. 20: Nevada Democratic caucus, South Carolina Republican primary
Feb. 23: Nevada Republican caucus
Feb. 27: South Carolina Democratic primary
March 1 (Super Tuesday): Alabama primary, Alaska Republican caucus, American Samoa Democratic caucuses, Arkansas primary, Colorado caucuses (Republicans won't vote), Georgia primary, Massachusetts primary, Minnesota primary, Oklahoma primary, Tennessee primary, Texas primary, Vermont primary, Virginia primary, Wyoming Republican caucus, abroad Democratic primary
March 3: Republican debate in Detroit
March 5: Kansas caucuses, Kentucky Republican caucus, Louisiana primary, Maine Republican caucus, Nebraska Democratic caucus
March 6: Democratic debate in Flint, Michigan; Maine Democratic caucus, Puerto Rico Republican primary
March 8: Hawaii Republican caucus, Idaho Republican primary, Michigan primary, Mississippi primary
March 9: Democratic debate in Miami
March 10: Republican debate in Florida, Virgin Islands Republican caucus
March 12: District of Columbia Republican convention, Guam Republican convention, Northern Mariana Islands Democratic caucus
March 15: Florida primary, Illinois primary, Missouri primary, North Carolina primary, Northern Mariana Islands Republican caucus, Ohio primary
March 22: American Samoa Republican convention, Arizona primary, Idaho Democratic caucus, Utah caucus
March 26: Alaska Democratic caucus, Hawaii Democratic caucus, Washington Democratic caucus
April 1: North Dakota Republican convention
April 5: Wisconsin primary
April 9: Wyoming Democratic caucus
April 19: New York primary
April 26: Connecticut primary, Delaware primary, Maryland primary, Pennsylvania primary, Rhode Island primary
May 3: Indiana primary
May 7: Guam Democratic caucus
May 10: Nebraska Republican primary, West Virginia primary
May 17: Kentucky Democratic primary, Oregon primary
May 24: Washington Republican primary
June 4: Virgin Islands Democratic caucus
June 5: Puerto Rico Democratic caucus
June 7: California primary, Montana primary, New Jersey primary, New Mexico primary, North Dakota Democratic caucus, South Dakota primary
June 14: District of Columbia Democratic primary
July 18-21: Republican National Convention in Cleveland
July 25-28: Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
- Masha Gessen
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#3
Posted 16 February 2016 - 09:36 PM
https://projects.fiv...ina-republican/
They're projecting Hillary to walk away with the Carolinas and Michigan, and Bernie to put up more of a fight in other states. I still think she'll end up with enough delegates that we don't have a contested convention, but she can't take that for granted.
Trump is projected winner in every state so far except Texas, where it's Cruz. But I don't think he's projected winner by enough to get a majority of the delegates. Which means after the first round of voting at the convention, utter chaos may be unleashed. Because there's no way Cruz will ever back out of this race, even if it destroys the party. Trump doesn't care about destroying the party either, but I'm not sure that's not exactly the leverage he wants, so he can get... some other end I don't understand.
Tennessee is open primary, early voting is already on, but I'm waiting to see if anyone else drops out. I'll probably vote March 1. Not sure which party I'll vote in yet. If it's Democrat, it's definitely Bernie. If it's Republican... I'm not sure.
I can't vote for Cruz, because his entire message is anger, hate, and fear. It's so anti-Christian I almost have to vote against him on religious grounds; he's making us look bad.
I can't vote for Carson, because his platform is utterly disconnected from reality. A 10% flat tax because it was good enough for God in the Old Testament? Seriously? Also makes Christians look bad, though more because it's stupid than because it's evil.
I can't vote for Bush, because... well, he's Bush. He still thinks invading Iraq was just fine. And he uses W as one of his chief advisers on middle-east policy! And the rest of W's advisers as well! The Iraq war was the biggest policy disaster in my lifetime, and I can't vote for someone who doesn't see that.
So among Rubio, Trump, and Kasich...
Rubio is trying to look like an experienced politician when he's not. He's trying to be Obama, but he can't pull it off. He's trying to look like a mainstream candidate when he's really a right-wing extremist, except by comparison to Cruz! In short, he's a bozo.
Trump is frightening, though not nearly to the same degree as Cruz. He can't possibly win; his net favorability is something like negative 23%. But what scares me the most is that I honestly don't know what the man wants. Is he insane? Or brilliantly doing... something else?
Kasich is clearly the least offensive. In a sane year he'd make a very strong candidate. He'd be the candidate of the Republican party I wish existed. So he'd be the one I'd pick, out of the six.
So yeah. Probably voting for Bernie.
#4
Posted 17 February 2016 - 08:51 AM
Omega, on 16 February 2016 - 09:36 PM, said:
Kasich expects folks to see him as a moderate. Check his record as governor of Ohio. He's bad news.

The once and future Nonny
"Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world." Can anyone tell me who I am quoting? I found this with no attribution.
Fatal miscarriages are forever.
Stupid is stupid, this I believe. And ignorance is the worst kind of stupid, since ignorance is a choice. Suzanne Brockmann
All things must be examined, debated, investigated without exception and without regard for anyone's feelings. Diderot
#5
Posted 17 February 2016 - 09:01 AM
Looking back at whose dropped out, I don't know there was ever anyone better. Santorum wants to legislate his personal religious beliefs, as does Huckabee. Perry, Walker, and Jindal are all the same brand of tea-party crazy. Christie is I think more grounded in reality, but blatantly corrupt and consciously self-serving. And I never understood why Fiorina was running at all.
Who's that even leave? Graham somewhat, but his foreign policy ideas have been a disaster for decades, and he doesn't seem to learn. Maybe Pataki, but he never got any traction. Paul, who's an odd amalgam of the craziest and sanest person on any given stage...
So yeah. I'd pick Kasich as the best of an extremely broad, extremely bad field.
Edited by Omega, 17 February 2016 - 09:07 AM.
#6
Posted 17 February 2016 - 12:31 PM
Omega, on 17 February 2016 - 09:01 AM, said:
Looking back at whose dropped out, I don't know there was ever anyone better. Santorum wants to legislate his personal religious beliefs, as does Huckabee. Perry, Walker, and Jindal are all the same brand of tea-party crazy. Christie is I think more grounded in reality, but blatantly corrupt and consciously self-serving. And I never understood why Fiorina was running at all.
Who's that even leave? Graham somewhat, but his foreign policy ideas have been a disaster for decades, and he doesn't seem to learn. Maybe Pataki, but he never got any traction. Paul, who's an odd amalgam of the craziest and sanest person on any given stage...
So yeah. I'd pick Kasich as the best of an extremely broad, extremely bad field.
Exactly. If I had to choose a Republican, Kasich is the only choice I could live with. He isn't insane. He's just a Republican.
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#7
Posted 17 February 2016 - 03:40 PM
http://www.salon.com...dium=socialflow
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#8
Posted 17 February 2016 - 03:52 PM
Nonny, on 17 February 2016 - 08:51 AM, said:
Kasich is a moderate Republican. Stack him up against the other alleged Republican and he is left of center in this particular incarnation of the GOP. You're looking at him from the left, where he is still right of center on a broad political spectrum, [and that is fine btw, we all look at candidates from our own perspective.], which makes him unacceptable to you. But Nonny, I doubt you would ever vote for any Republican. And, that too is OK. You are a Democrat and that's where you live. So, do a lot of people btw.
My mother is a Republican. I mean a Barry Goldwater, gun toting, Republican. She is mystified this election cycle. She says if Trump gets the nomination, she will NOT vote at all. She can't bring herself to vote for any Democrat--ever.. but she will stay home if Trump gets the nod. She says she will vote if it is Kasich, or Jeb. My mother has never missed voting in any election for her entire life, and the GOP field is so bad, she is considering staying home. That's how insane the candidates are to a staunch Republican.
So compared to that, Kasich is Reagan reincarnated this election cycle. But, he will never get the delegates. i doubt he can stay in much past Super Tuesday, if that long. He doesn't have the $$ for the long haul.
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#9
Posted 17 February 2016 - 04:01 PM
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#10
Posted 17 February 2016 - 06:16 PM
I'm wavering between Clinton and Sanders and will probably go with Clinton, but I want Sanders as Secretary of Something.
As I'm in Tennessee, I wonder if I should vote in the Democratic or Republican primary. I'm definitely a Democrat, but I'd love to do something (more) to screw up the Republicans.
Guam? Puerto Rico? American Samoa? I didn't realize they could even vote. Re-education needed every cycle. Frankly I would doubt most Republicans would accept that they could vote!
#11
Posted 17 February 2016 - 08:17 PM
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#12
Posted 19 February 2016 - 05:29 PM
Interesting, tho, so it's going to court. Let's see how far it goes, or if it is just a stunt prior to the NC primary.
http://www.vox.com/2.../ted-cruz-court
Quote
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#13
Posted 19 February 2016 - 05:34 PM
Cait, on 19 February 2016 - 05:29 PM, said:
Quote
I can't imagine this not going up to the Supreme Court... unless the filer of the lawsuit drops it, or Cruz drops out of the race.
Edited by sierraleone, 19 February 2016 - 05:39 PM.
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
- Masha Gessen
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#14
Posted 19 February 2016 - 07:52 PM
sierraleone, on 19 February 2016 - 05:34 PM, said:
Well, from what I can find, there really is no legal definition concerning Cruz's situation and whether or not he is "natural born". What I found is...
1. Everyone born in the US regardless of the state of the parents citizenship, is in fact a natural born citizen.
2. Everyone born of a citizen of the US, regardless of location is a citizen [note the lack of "natural born" there.]
3. Everyone born of non-US parents, not in the US is not a citizen and not natural born.
There is that gray area in #2, which is the Cruz situation.
I jaded and cynical self thinks this has less to do with Cruz, and more with the court right now, given that it is an 8-member court.
As a matter of law, I'd like this definition to be resolved as soon as possible. I'd like to reduce the time politicians take in debating this kind of thing and return us to actual policy. But, what do I know.
How quickly it could make it through the courts is questionable, and meanwhile it is a political football, polarizing the nation yet again.
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#15
Posted 20 February 2016 - 04:59 PM
Quote
Consider the following. We’ll start with some of the more superficial differences between Sanders and Trump and work our way to the more important ones.
1. Trump is “winning” (for now), and Sanders isn’t. There are lots of reasons to suspect that Trump will fall from his position atop the GOP polls sooner or later, but he’d be a favorite to win a hypothetical national primary held today. Sanders, by contrast, trails Hillary Clinton by about 20 percentage points in national polls that include Joe Biden, and by 30 points in polls that don’t.
2. Sanders is campaigning on substantive policy positions, and Trump is largely campaigning on the force of his personality. I’m not sure this assertion requires a lot of proof, but if you need some, check out the candidates’ websites. Sanders’s lists dozens of specific policy proposalsacross a wide range of issues; Trump’s details his position on just one, immigration.
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:
Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html
#16
Posted 20 February 2016 - 07:10 PM
Cait, on 19 February 2016 - 07:52 PM, said:
I jaded and cynical self thinks this has less to do with Cruz, and more with the court right now, given that it is an 8-member court.
As a matter of law, I'd like this definition to be resolved as soon as possible. I'd like to reduce the time politicians take in debating this kind of thing and return us to actual policy. But, what do I know.
How quickly it could make it through the courts is questionable, and meanwhile it is a political football, polarizing the nation yet again.
Indeed. Part of me wishes this would do in Cruz' candidacy. It's shallow of me, but policies aside, I can't stand his face. But I do think there should be a legal rulling - at the highest level - on this asap. It could come up again and the country needs precedent. (And no, "birthers," it doesn't apply to Obama - he was born in Hawaii which is a U.S. state. See #1 above.)
#18
Posted 20 February 2016 - 10:16 PM
The Left is inclusive, and tolerant, unless you happen to think and believe different than they do~ Lord of the Sword
Looks like the Liberal Elite of Exisle have finally managed to silence the last remaining Conservative voice on the board.
“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.” ~Thomas Jefferson
#19
Posted 20 February 2016 - 10:26 PM
The Left is inclusive, and tolerant, unless you happen to think and believe different than they do~ Lord of the Sword
Looks like the Liberal Elite of Exisle have finally managed to silence the last remaining Conservative voice on the board.
“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.” ~Thomas Jefferson
#20
Posted 21 February 2016 - 10:53 AM
That said, the way the GOP selects its nominee is no more straight-forward. There are republican caucus states, republican super-delegates who can change their vote at the convention if need be, et al.
Stay tuned for the contested Republican convention - first one in recent decades. I'm sure lotsa arcane rules and procedures that we've never had any reason to know about will come up. I'm excited!
Quote
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