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Donald Trump??

2016 primaries Trump

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#1 Cait

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 07:39 PM

OK, I'm blowing up my twitter and facebook feed, I might as well talk about it here.

I read this today...

http://www.vox.com/2...uthoritarianism

..and I think I turned a corner on understanding the people who support Trump.  That doesn't make things better, in fact, it looks a lot worse.  

I think that somewhere, deep inside, I really thought he could just be beat.  But, I don't want to wait until November to face reality.  People.  He could become the President.  I talk to people and they all say, he can't win.  But, I think he can, and I think this article explains how and why that is possible.

It's a must read no matter what side of the aisle you sit on.

Your thoughts???

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

Source:
http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html


#2 sierraleone

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 08:44 PM

I am about half way through this article. I have seen this idea touched upon before, those with tendencies (overt or not) towards authoritarianism are much more likely to support Trump. And since it is more similar to a personality type than to a traditional demographic, there are people in many of the traditional class/education divisions that could support Trump. And that also cuts against the idea that their is a firm ceiling to Trump's support, especially when people who perceive threats are more likely to act authoritarian.

Some people on the left seem to think no one on the left will go for Trump. I am not so secure in that belief at this point. While some on the left may disagree with the right on how to resolve economic issues I have heard that it is possible Trump may be able to get support in areas hurting economically that typically lean left, such as at the rust belt.

And if a terrorist attack happens, it could drive more people in his direction...

Edited by sierraleone, 01 March 2016 - 08:48 PM.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
- Masha Gessen
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html

#3 Cait

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 08:58 PM

View Postsierraleone, on 01 March 2016 - 08:44 PM, said:



And if a terrorist attack happens, it could drive more people in his direction...

This.  It's frightening to think that the fate of our democracy as we know it, lies in the hands of terrorists.

You take on the article was mine as well.  Trump has not hit his ceiling.  His followers aren't in a known demographic.  I'm pretty sure this election will require all of us to be activists.  We can't just sit at home and use our one vote.  We have to actively campaign for any candidate but Trump.  It will equire diligence I think.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

Source:
http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html


#4 Orpheus

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 09:23 PM

I never truly doubted Trump *could* be elected. I lost that comforting naivete when we elected "a President you could have a beer with" in 2000.

#5 sierraleone

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 09:29 PM

Just finished reading it. Well that was depressing, I think I was foolishly hoping for a prescription at the end there or something... And they even strongly suggest that regardless of the result of this election this streak of authoritarianism isn't going away (so would require on-going vigilance from non-authoritarians going forward even if Trump doesn't win).

When I got to the section about what they actually want I thought there might be something helpful there at least, but no, they don't agree on economic policies... Just on some fascist policies masquerading as security...  and that allowing gay marriage is bad for the U.S.....

I don't see a way to actually reason widely with authoritarians, especially in this socio-political climate.... As it seems trying to reason with them could possibly actually have the opposite effect as such dialogue/discussion/debate with them could just make them more diametrically opposed as they batten down the hatches against perceived threats....

Edited by sierraleone, 01 March 2016 - 10:34 PM.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
- Masha Gessen
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html

#6 Jorgasnarova

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 09:37 PM

The more traction Mr. Trump gains the more fearful I become.

Political satirists have their insights.  Trevor Noah on The Daily Show had a segment earlier this week in which Trump was compared to Mussolini.  Some of the parallels were a bit disturbing.



John Oliver on Last Week Tonight was even less kind to Mr. Trump than Mr. Noah was.



#7 sierraleone

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 10:59 PM

And the numbers the had in the article indicate authoritarian tendency is not only a small number of people.
44% of white Americans score high or very high (19% very high).
Those that score highest, 65% are GOP voters...
I am curious about that other 35%... presumably they aren't all democrats, some are independents... Considering how important independents or middle voters are to elections, it would have been interesting to see the percentage of them as high/very high on that scale.

And while the Authoritarian numbers skew Republican I think possibly this undercurrent of authoritarianism is party of the reason why even non-establishment Bernie is doing as well as he is, IMO. I know some people say/believe that someone who could be for Bernie couldn't possible ever be for Trump, but if they are on board with Bernie because they are traditionally a Democrat and/or see Bernie as the non-establishment pick that will stand strongly against the big banks to protect them. In the general will they *all* vote for Hillary? Someone who is seen as in-bed with the establishment/banks?
Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
- Masha Gessen
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html

#8 Omega

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Posted 01 March 2016 - 11:05 PM

I've said for a while that Trump's winning because some people just like a bully. Then I found this article, and... wow, do some people like a bully.

The GOP has long been a coalition of at least three major groups: monied interests, Christian dominionists, and these people. What they all have in common is that they benefit from breaking the system. Monied interests want greater concentrations of wealth, which by nature destabilizes society. Dominionists want to enforce their personal religious beliefs, which destabilizes society, and requires rewriting/ignoring the Constitution. Then... there's the authoritarians. They want to tear down the system for no end but to tear it down.

Some people just want to watch the world burn.

#9 Cait

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Posted 02 March 2016 - 02:50 PM

http://www.theguardi...sday?CMP=tmb_gu

Quote

But no one has come close to Trump in grasping the implications of all this: in contemporary America, celebrity confers authority. Mere credentials or qualifications have become an afterthought. How else to explain the host of a “reality” TV show instantly qualifying as a serious contender for high office?

Quote

American democracy has been decaying for decades. The people know that they are no longer truly sovereign. They know that the apparatus of power, both public and private, does not promote the common good, itself a concept that has become obsolete.

They have had their fill of irresponsibility, lack of accountability, incompetence, and the bad times that increasingly seem to go with them.So in disturbingly large numbers they have turned to Trump to strip bare the body politic, willing to take a chance that he will come up with something that, if not better, will at least be more entertaining. As Argentinians and others who have trusted their fate to demagogues have discovered, such expectations are doomed to disappointment.

In the meantime, just imagine how the Donald J Trump Presidential Library, no doubt taller than all the others put together, might one day glitter and glisten – perhaps with casino attached.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

Source:
http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html


#10 Cait

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Posted 02 March 2016 - 04:46 PM

http://fivethirtyeig...way-from-trump/

Quote


This is a familiar argument, and to some people it would seem to have an obvious answer: of course Trump has a mandate! He’s won 10 of the 15 states and far more delegates than anyone else. He’s also leading in national polls — and polls of most future states. He’s been the center of attention for more than half a year and his voters have stuck with him.

But there’s also the fact that Trump has received only 34 percent of the Republican vote, aggregated across all primaries and caucuses to have voted so far. He did not really improve on that figure on Super Tuesday; Trump had a combined 33 percent of the vote through the first four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada); he got 34 percent in Super Tuesday states themselves.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

Source:
http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html


#11 Themis

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Posted 02 March 2016 - 04:53 PM

View PostCait, on 02 March 2016 - 02:50 PM, said:

http://www.theguardi...sday?CMP=tmb_gu

Quote

But no one has come close to Trump in grasping the implications of all this: in contemporary America, celebrity confers authority. Mere credentials or qualifications have become an afterthought. How else to explain the host of a “reality” TV show instantly qualifying as a serious contender for high office?

Other points from the article:  

Quote

Back in 1968, then running for president, Richard Nixon, of all people, got things rolling when he appeared on Laugh-In and uttered the immortal words, “Sock it to me?”

And now we have everyone appearing on SNL...

Quote

In that regard, the spectacle of televised “debates” has offered Trump an ideal platform for promoting his cult of personality. Once a solemn, almost soporific forum for civic education – remember Kennedy and Nixon in 1960? – presidential debates now provide occasions for trading insults, provoking gaffes, engaging in verbal food fights, and marketing magical solutions to problems ranging from war to border security that are immune to magic. For all of that we have Trump chiefly to thank.

Not so sure about that last sentence.  The debates have seemed like that to me for quite awhile.

Words almost fail me at the moment.
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#12 Omega

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 08:16 AM

Could we just make it illegal for candidates to appear on television? I feel like that's when it all went to hell...

#13 Themis

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 09:29 AM

View PostOmega, on 03 March 2016 - 08:16 AM, said:

Could we just make it illegal for candidates to appear on television? I feel like that's when it all went to hell...
Not unl

Not unless it could be retroactive.  There's no way to undo The Apprentice.
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#14 Balthamos

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 09:58 AM

How about changing the format of the debates. A candidate gets asked a question and the other candidates aren't even on screen and don't have their mic turned on. That way the only thing to focus on is what they're saying. When they've finished answering the question then one of the other candidates is isolated in a similar fashion and gets to answer the question. There's no possible way you can talk other someone, interrupt them or otherwise show your indignation in a manner that's going to interrupt the other candidate. Of course it might serve the purpose of forcing people to listen to the candidates answers and I'm not sure that's what we want for TV. Who needs information when you can vote on personality.

#15 Lord of the Sword

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 07:19 PM

I haven't had a chance to check out the linked article yet, but I do have to say....I was originally for Trump. I like the brash, often times harsh tone and comments. I found it refreshing, after 7 years of Obama constantly apologizing to the world for America. Trump, ON HIS OWN, and with his own words, lost me with his: Ban all muslims comment.

Now, having said that, given the "Never Was" Romney's press conference today, and the Right Wing establishment's all out war against Trump, all in the hopes of getting their robotic candidate: Domo Arigato Marco Roboto, in the oval...despite millions of republican voters voting for Trump....The Right Wing is seriously making me consider Trump again, after all. If the Establishment is THIS determined to make the people's votes not count, then pardon my language but F**k them then.

And I SO hope that if it does go to a brokered convention, like it's looking like it might, that behind closed doors Trump tells the establishment....Do what you want, but if you screw me over, I'm running as a third party candidate and you can kiss any hope of stopping Hillary good bye.
"Sometimes you get the point of the sword, sometimes the edge, sometimes the flat of the blade (even if you're the Lord of the Sword) and sometimes you're the guy wielding it. But any day without the Sword or its Lord is one that could've been better  " ~Orpheus.

The Left is inclusive, and tolerant, unless you happen to think and believe different than they do~ Lord of the Sword

Looks like the Liberal Elite of Exisle have finally managed to silence the last remaining Conservative voice on the board.

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.” ~Thomas Jefferson

#16 Omega

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 08:01 PM

https://en.wikipedia...primaries,_2016
Trump only has a third of the Republican votes cast so far. It's not like the Republican-voting populace has overwhelmingly selected Trump.

#17 Cait

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 08:06 PM

View PostLord of the Sword, on 03 March 2016 - 07:19 PM, said:

.

And I SO hope that if it does go to a brokered convention, like it's looking like it might, that behind closed doors Trump tells the establishment....Do what you want, but if you screw me over, I'm running as a third party candidate and you can kiss any hope of stopping Hillary good bye.

To run as a 3rd party Candidate, he'd have to get on the ballots of all 50 states and territories.  It's not as simple as you think.  Waiting until after the convention is stupid.  

https://ballotpedia....tial_candidates

Quote



An individual can run as an independent. Independent presidential candidates typically must petition each state to have their names printed on the general election ballot. For the 2016 presidential contest, it was estimated that an independent candidate would need to collect in excess of 900,000 signatures in order to appear on the general election ballot in every state.[1]

An individual can run as a write-in candidate. In 35 states, a write-in candidate must file some paperwork in advance of the election. In seven states, write-in voting for presidential candidates is not permitted. The remaining states do not require write-in candidates to file paperwork in advance of the election


Some of the filing deadlines in many states for Independents are as early as June 2016.

In any event, it's not as simple to run as a 3rd party as taking your football and declaring yourself running as an independent.  Unless, Trump has been secretly getting himself on the ballot, or has a really good ground team in every state to make sure he is a write-in, he's talking gobbledygook, and the GOP Establishment knows it.  it would still be trouble, write-in votes alone would tank the election, but then Trump is just a spoiler, not a serious candidate.

Quote

Some states bar candidates who sought, but failed, to secure the nomination of a political party from running as independents in the general election.

If Trump waits until the convention to go 3rd party, he will be barred in 2 states from running at all.  South Dakota is not a big electoral loss, but TEXAS is.  No Republican can win without Texas, and I'll bet no Independent can either.  Additionally, in 43 other states the interpretation of "sore losers" laws are not certain.  It's generally held not to apply in Presidential candidacies, but there are no specific precedents to refer too.  It would be an electoral nightmare, if the GOP challenged Trump in 43 states with questionable sore losers laws.  And, you know the GOP would do it.  If they win in only half of those states, then Trump is barred from running.

And, just for the record, we are NOT a democracy.  We are a democratic Republic.  This makes a huge difference in our elections.  We are a Republic of sovereign states. Each state makes it's own election laws, which Trump appears to be totally ignorant of, as are many voters.  We do not count votes and tally up the overall total.  We elect our President and Vice-President in the Electoral College.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.

Source:
http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html


#18 Elara

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 08:15 PM

View PostBalthamos, on 03 March 2016 - 09:58 AM, said:

How about changing the format of the debates. A candidate gets asked a question and the other candidates aren't even on screen and don't have their mic turned on. That way the only thing to focus on is what they're saying. When they've finished answering the question then one of the other candidates is isolated in a similar fashion and gets to answer the question. There's no possible way you can talk other someone, interrupt them or otherwise show your indignation in a manner that's going to interrupt the other candidate. Of course it might serve the purpose of forcing people to listen to the candidates answers and I'm not sure that's what we want for TV. Who needs information when you can vote on personality.

Oh, more than that is needed, but you are on the right track. They also need to actually answer the question. Don't say what the other candidate has done, don't go off on something that might be close to answering, answer the question. If they don't, they are to be cut off and lose their turn. No second chance.

View PostLord of the Sword, on 03 March 2016 - 07:19 PM, said:

Now, having said that, given the "Never Was" Romney's press conference today, and the Right Wing establishment's all out war against Trump, all in the hopes of getting their robotic candidate: Domo Arigato Marco Roboto, in the oval...despite millions of republican voters voting for Trump....The Right Wing is seriously making me consider Trump again, after all. If the Establishment is THIS determined to make the people's votes not count, then pardon my language but F**k them then.

Well, LotS, if you want to vote for a man that has said he would date his own daughter, then that is your right. As for me, he hasn't stopped saying things that make me sick.
El
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I want a job in HRC's "shadow" cabinet. Good pay, really easy hours, lots of time off. Can't go wrong.

"You have a fair and valid point here. I've pointed out, numerous times, that the Left's or Democrats always cry "Racist" whenever someone disagrees with them. I failed to realize that the Right or Republicans do the same thing with "Liberal"." ~ LotS

#19 Omega

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 08:22 PM

View PostCait, on 03 March 2016 - 08:06 PM, said:

Each state makes it's own election laws, which Trump appears to be totally ignorant of, as are many voters.

You know, based on how thoroughly ignorant the man is of... well, reality at large, I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks he can run as an independent, plans to do so if he loses at the convention, and has absolutely no idea that he can't do that. It would fit. And be utterly hysterical.

Of course, those filing deadlines can be completely ignored. In 2008, neither major party filed properly in Texas. If the law had been followed, Bob Barr would have won Texas, being the only candidate on the ballot.
http://ballot-access...ntial-nominees/

#20 Lord of the Sword

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Posted 03 March 2016 - 11:24 PM

View PostElara, on 03 March 2016 - 08:15 PM, said:

Well, LotS, if you want to vote for a man that has said he would date his own daughter, then that is your right. As for me, he hasn't stopped saying things that make me sick.

For me, one of the biggest reason for voting Trump, even after his ban muslims comment, was when Al Sharpton said he would leave the USA if Trump was elected. THAT is more then enough reason to vote trump, to get that race baiter out of the country.
"Sometimes you get the point of the sword, sometimes the edge, sometimes the flat of the blade (even if you're the Lord of the Sword) and sometimes you're the guy wielding it. But any day without the Sword or its Lord is one that could've been better  " ~Orpheus.

The Left is inclusive, and tolerant, unless you happen to think and believe different than they do~ Lord of the Sword

Looks like the Liberal Elite of Exisle have finally managed to silence the last remaining Conservative voice on the board.

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.” ~Thomas Jefferson



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