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Why Ontario, Why!?! (Provincial Election Results)

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#1 sierraleone


    All things Great and Mischievous

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Posted 07 June 2018 - 09:43 PM

A little background.

Ontario is Canada's largest province, accounting for ~40% of the population.
Ontario just held a Provincial election.

Mainstream parties:

Liberals - A centrist or center-left party. They have been in power in 2003. Since 2013 the Provincial Premier (equivalent to governor+state legislative leader) has been Kathleen Wynn. There have certainly been complaints and dissatisfaction about the liberals after 15 years of them.
New Democrats Party (NDP) - Left of center party. They have been in power once since 1975, in the early 90s, and that run they had was hated and is still talked about among some non-millennials when NDP is brought up.
Progressive Conservatives (PC) - Right of center party. There used to be two right of center parties in Canada, but they started merging in the early 2000s. So now the conservative vote is not split, at least on the Federal level, and also not on the provincial level in Ontario.

PC Leader: The party had a leader shake up in Jan due to the #metoo movement, and so they had to determine their new leader quick. Enter in Doug Ford. You may have heard of his younger brother, the infamous Rob Ford, the crack-mayor-of-Toronto (now deceased). While he is not his brother he has quite his own youthful indiscretions (alleged 1980s drug dealer, specifically hashish) and is bullyish and sexist and homophobic. Doug's previous experience is mostly in his well-to-do family business Deco Labels and Tags, which he refused to release details on, and he is still involved as I understand it. He does have limited experience in politics, one term as a City Councillor (2010-2014) when he was his Mayor brother's primary politic ally / advisor.

So, while results are still coming in, this much seems sure:
-PC has won the most seats, and a majority of them... They have ~40% of the popular vote and ~60% of the seats (76/125) for sure so far. Ontario's new Premier is Doug Ford.
-NDP, with ~34% of the vote has won ~32% of the seats (40)
-Liberals, with ~20% of the vote has won ~6% of the seats (7)
For the Liberals this means they go from holding a majority of seats to not having enough seats to qualifying for official party status (requires 8 seats) under the current rules. They loose money and loose access (to the party-in-power's documents that are shared with other parties) and loose time (on the legislative floor).
-Green Party (a environmental party), with ~5% of the vote has won ~1% of the seats (1).

Turnout was ~58%

I would have been okay with a minority party, held in check by the other parties. But a conservative majority, plus headed by Doug Ford.... Ugh...

One thing the parliamentary system has going for it is it is very easy to replace a leader. So if the PC party doesn't like Doug Ford's leadership they can turf him much easier than say the U.S. Congress can replace POTUS. I suspect if it does happen it will take a while... the PCs have been out of power for 15 years.

Edited by sierraleone, 08 June 2018 - 06:02 PM.

Rules for surviving an Autocracy:

Rule#1: Believe the Autocrat.
Rule#2: Do not be taken in by small signs of normality.
Rule#3: Institutions will not save you.
Rule#4: Be outraged.
Rule#5: Don't make compromises.
Rule#6: Remember the future.
- Masha Gessen
Source: http://www2.nybooks....r-survival.html

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