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Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

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#1 cade

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Posted 11 March 2020 - 02:33 PM

There's a ton of disinformation being spread that is literally killing people, so to fight against that please read and share this:  https://medium.com/@...ie-f4d3d9cd99ca

Even a lot of the "news" media keep emphasizing currently known cases rather the far more numerous as-yet-undocumented cases and the growth rate. It's all about the growth rate and thankfully we already have examples of countries that massively reduced it or had it contained from the start. Horrifyingly, many Western countries are refusing to follow their lead, and there's widespread denial of the dangers.

just a few excerpts:


If you want to understand what will happen, or how to prevent it, you need to look at the cases that have already gone through this: China, Eastern countries with SARS experience, and Italy.


Posted Image Posted Image

This is one of the most important charts.

It shows in orange histograms the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.

The grey histograms show the true daily coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know at the time. We can only figure them out looking backgrounds.

What this means is that the orange histograms show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.

On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.

Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

The day after, another 15 cities in Hubei shut down.

Up until Jan 23rd, when Wuhan closes, you can look at the grey graph: it’s growing exponentially. True cases were exploding. As soon as Wuhan shuts down, cases slow down. On Jan 24th, when another 15 cities shut down, the number of true cases (again, grey) grinds to a halt. Two days later, the maximum number of true cases was reached, and it has gone down ever since.

Note that the orange (official) cases were still growing exponentially: For 12 more days, it looked like this thing was still exploding. But it wasn’t. It’s just that the cases were getting stronger symptoms and going to the doctor more, and the system to identify them was stronger.

This concept of official and true cases is important. Let’s keep it in mind for later.

The rest of regions in China were well coordinated by the central government, so they took immediate and drastic measures. This is the result:

Posted Image Posted Image

Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.
Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn’t. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every Chinese region before the end of February.

Eastern Countries

South Korea cases have exploded, but have you wondered why Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand or Hong Kong haven’t?

All of them were hit by SARS in 2003, and all of them learned from it. They learned how viral and lethal it could be, so they knew to take it seriously. That’s why all of their graphs, despite starting to grow much earlier, still don’t look like exponentials.

So far, we have stories of coronavirus exploding, governments realizing the threat, and containing them. For the rest of countries, however, it’s a completely different story.


    3. What Should You Do?

Flatten the Curve

This is a pandemic now. It can’t be eliminated. But what we can do is reduce its impact.
Some countries have been exemplary at this. The best one is Taiwan, which is extremely connected with China and yet still has as of today fewer than 50 cases. This recent paper explain all the measures they took early on, which were focused on containment.

Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing

This Viewpoint describes the outbreak response infrastructure developed by the Taiwanese government following the SARS…


They have been able to contain it, but most countries lacked this expertise and didn’t. Now, they’re playing a different game: mitigation. They need to make this virus as inoffensive as possible.
If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether. So our goal is not to eliminate coronavirus contagions. It’s to postpone them.

Posted Image Posted Image

The more we postpone cases, the better the healthcare system can function, the lower the mortality rate, and the higher the share of the population that will be vaccinated before it gets infected.
How do we flatten the curve?

Social Distancing

There is one very simple thing that we can do and that works: social distancing.
If you go back to the Wuhan graph, you will remember that as soon as there was a lockdown, cases went down. That’s because people didn’t interact with each other, and the virus didn’t spread.
The current scientific consensus is that this virus can be spread within 2 meters (6 feet) if somebody coughs. Otherwise, the droplets fall to the ground and don’t infect you.
The worst infection then becomes through surfaces: The virus survives for hours or days on different surfaces. If it behaves like the flu, it can survive for weeks on metal, ceramics and plastics. That means things like doorknobs, tables, or elevator buttons can be terrible infection vectors.
The only way to truly reduce that is with social distancing: Keeping people home as much as possible, for as long as possible until this recedes.
This has already been proven in the past. Namely, in the 1918 flu pandemic.


Conclusion: The Cost of Waiting

It might feel scary to make a decision today, but you shouldn’t think about it this way.

Posted Image Posted Image

This theoretical model shows different communities: one doesn’t take social distancing measures, one takes them on Day n of an outbreak, the other one on Day n+1. All the numbers are completely fictitious (I chose them to resemble what happened in Hubei, with ~6k daily new cases at the worst). They’re just there to illustrate how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially. You can see that the one-day delay peaks later and higher, but then daily cases converge to zero.
But what about cumulative cases?

Posted Image Posted Image

In this theoretical model that resembles loosely Hubei, waiting one more day creates 40% more cases! So, maybe, if the Hubei authorities had declared the lockdown on 1/22 instead of 1/23, they might have reduced the number of cases by a staggering 20k.
And remember, these are just cases. Mortality would be much higher, because not only would there be directly 40% more deaths. There would also be a much higher collapse of the healthcare system, leading to a mortality rate up to 10x higher as we saw before. So a one-day difference in social distancing measures can end exploding the number of deaths in your community by multiplying more cases and higher fatality rate.
This is an exponential threat. Every day counts. When you’re delaying by a single day a decision, you’re not contributing to a few cases maybe. There are probably hundreds or thousands of cases in your community already. Every day that there isn’t social distancing, these cases grow exponentially.

Share the Word

This is probably the one time in the last decade that sharing an article might save lives. They need to understand this to avert a catastrophe. The moment to act is now.

Edited by cade, 11 March 2020 - 02:41 PM.

#2 D.Rabbit


    Me and all my shadows.

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Posted 13 March 2020 - 08:54 PM

Thanks Cade, I have been meaning to look into this latest scourge out of China.
I watched the doc on their original denial that has caused this to go world wide.

Checked the closest largest city to me. All's good so far but they know it's best to shut the city activity centers down for 3 weeks because they don't want just one case to surface meaning 900 to fallow shortly.

Canada's prime minister just allocated $1 billion to the cause when he wife came home from England not feeling well.
Hey, we don't have that much money or we would have paid off the national debt and all gone south for the winter.:D

I'm not too worried, the virus is going to have to fight it's way past the one that won't leave my head. Good luck there.
If I can only hold it a bay for a week at a time, it's definitely stubborn and won't want to give up it's home in my head.

I was asked, perhaps jokingly, to kill off the Covid-19. I have a moral problems with that.
Take a virus like Rabies. It can be cured if caught in time, but it infects the brain and causes the host before it dies to bite a new host.  There is something more to them then just being microscopic.

Wash your hands often folks, and cough into your elbows. Virus do not live long on door knobs but do you want to take a chance?
Open doors with the hem of your coat, shirt, pull your your sleeves down over your hands, or just wait for someone to push out or in.

Edited by D.Rabbit, 13 March 2020 - 08:59 PM.

7 verses I know you're there behind the veil.

#3 D.Rabbit


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Posted 14 March 2020 - 12:59 AM

I've been off researching these little critters and soap is your best friend.
They are basically little grease balls. Soap breaks up the outer layer and their RNA is flushed out.
Without the RNA they can't reproduce.

Examining why children are not at as much at risk of death as adults has to do with their immature immune systems.
What kills a patient is the congestion caused by the immune system producing air blockages with the casualties from both sides of the internal war.

It seems your immune system is your worst enemy and a suppressant would most likely lessen the congestion while you wait for an inhaler that can do the work of soap?

Edited by D.Rabbit, 14 March 2020 - 01:14 AM.

7 verses I know you're there behind the veil.

#4 M.E.

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 11:16 PM

I think I already had it.  Remember how sick I was after Christmas D.Rabbit?

My lungs were the worst part because they were full of flem but I could not cough it up/out.  I ran the whole gambit of symptoms and  it took over 2 months to recover.  Luckily I had quit smoking about 2 months prior to that happening.

So, now I should be immune to Coronavirus.  :)

#5 D.Rabbit


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Posted 21 March 2020 - 10:26 PM

If you did have it you might want to visit your Dr. and tell him you have the cure running through your veins?
You could save the world because your antibodies are the key to kicking those grease balls to the curb.
7 verses I know you're there behind the veil.

#6 M.E.

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Posted 21 March 2020 - 11:18 PM

Well, they don't usually use blood antibodies because it takes too long and it is very expensive.  Besides, many people have had the virus and recovered already so they don't need me.   But, it does mean I am immune for now until it mutates.

#7 D.Rabbit


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Posted 23 March 2020 - 07:37 PM

Got to love those mutants, they keep us on our toes or in our place.

I was discussing the immature immune system of children with my son, how it allows them to survive.
He sent me this video with the comment, "You where right again."

This guy ticks me off, he is playing that, "I'm going to make a bundle game," not sharing the information.
Hello, it's a pandemic, get your priorities right, money will not buy you immortality.

You have to admire the expedience of the system he is promoting.

On the political stage, I get the feeling the US is going to go all out on whom ever promotes social health care this next election.

I've taken to calling a certain person, The BS Trumpet. Looks like he blew himself out of office?
7 verses I know you're there behind the veil.

#8 D.Rabbit


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Posted 24 March 2020 - 07:45 AM

I had to find out the real reason for the toilet paper hoarding.

This has led me to advise the new leader of the US socialist on Reddit?
My son. Guess he picked up his mom's tendency to have greatness thrust upon her? (Not that I would wish it on him.)
This pandemic has spurred the 99% into taking action against the 1% through the electoral process.

It does mean higher taxes in the States, less go fund me pages for medical bills.
It's about sharing the pie, not hoarding the TP.
7 verses I know you're there behind the veil.

#9 M.E.

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 11:05 PM

View PostD.Rabbit, on 21 March 2020 - 10:26 PM, said:

If you did have it you might want to visit your Dr. and tell him you have the cure running through your veins?
You could save the world because your antibodies are the key to kicking those grease balls to the curb.

Big Brother is listening, D.Rabbit. :insanosmile:


#10 D.Rabbit


    Me and all my shadows.

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Posted Yesterday, 07:50 PM

Too bad one could not purchase shares in those that stock me...
I could not read all the link, they block you if you have a pop up blocker and I'm not taking it down when I can read enough to get the gist and there are probably 20 other sites with the same message. :p
7 verses I know you're there behind the veil.

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