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Rov's Arnold Challenge

California Arnold Schwarzenegger 2003

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#1 Rov Judicata

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Posted 17 November 2003 - 07:55 PM

Inspired by this thread

Allegation: Arnold only won because he was in the movies.

Fact: Arnold won by 1.3 million votes, with a total of 3.7 million.

Inference: Ergo, for the allegation to be true, more than 35% of Arnold's vote base must have come from his celebrity status.

My Assumption: Nobody can prove that.

Concession: I'll also accept any evidence showing that 20% voted for him because he was 'cool' or 'charasmatic' or the like.

I'm being extremely generous with the 20% figure, but I'll stick with it. Find me the evidence, and I'll not only admit I was wrong, I'll also mail you the $5, or donate it to EI in your name.

There's no time limit on this. First one who does it gets the prize.

Edited by Javert Rovinski, 17 November 2003 - 07:59 PM.

St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#2 Rhea

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Posted 17 November 2003 - 07:57 PM

Javert Rovinski, on Nov 17 2003, 05:55 PM, said:

Rhea-- But the media often stages interviews to get the results they want. They'll interview a hundred people; if five say what they want to say, they'll keep them around and then reinterview them 'live'.

Let me open up the offer to anybody and make it a bit more valid:

Allegation: Arnold only won because he was in the movies.

Fact: Arnold won by 1.3 million votes, with a total of 3.7 million.

Inference: Ergo, for the allegation to be true, more than 35% of Arnold's vote base must have come from his celebrity status.

My Assumption: Nobody can prove that.

I'm being extremely generous with the 20% figure, but I'll stick with it. Find me the evidence, and I'll not only admit I was wrong, I'll also mail you the $5, or donate it to EI in your name.
I'll agree with you - I don't think anybody can prove it. But I believe that if Arnold hadn't been a movie star, he would never have been elected.

And what would the prize have been?  :p

Edited by Rhea, 17 November 2003 - 07:58 PM.

The future is better than the past. Despite the crepehangers, romanticists, and anti-intellectuals, the world steadily grows better because the human mind, applying itself to environment, makes it better. With hands...with tools...with horse sense and science and engineering.
- Robert A. Heinlein

When I don’t understand, I have an unbearable itch to know why. - RAH


Everything is theoretically impossible, until it is done. One could write a history of science in reverse by assembling the solemn pronouncements of highest authority about what could not be done and could never happen.  - RAH

#3 Rov Judicata

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Posted 17 November 2003 - 08:03 PM

Rhea, on Nov 17 2003, 05:57 PM, said:

Quote

I'll agree with you - I don't think anybody can prove it. But I believe that if Arnold hadn't been a movie star, he would never have been elected.

Well, that's no fun. ;). I think Arnold's celebrity status helped, but mostly it was just having greater fiscal resources.

Quote

And what would the prize have been?  :p

$5. I *am* a student. ;).
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#4 Delvo

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Posted 17 November 2003 - 09:41 PM

What alternate theory of how he'd get there are we supposed to disprove? To get any votes at all, you must be known to people. How was he going to have anyone know who he was? That seems to make it look like he depended on his background as it really happened 100%, not just 35%... because I can't see where the other 65% could have come from, if those are supposed to be votes he would have gotten even if the voters didn't alread know him.

#5 Rov Judicata

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Posted 17 November 2003 - 10:02 PM

Delvo-- I'm not asserting any positive theory to explain Arnold's victory. I'm just sick of people making the assertion without any evidence.

However, most people who win elections aren't that well known. Heck, the majority of people can't name their congressional representative, and I'd bet those who can name both of their senators are in the minority.
St. Louis must be destroyed!

Me: "I have a job and five credit cards and am looking into signing a two year lease.  THAT MAKES ME OLD."
Josh: "I don't have a job, I have ONE credit card, I'm stuck in a lease and I'm 28! My mom's basement IS ONE BAD DECISION AWAY!"
~~ Josh, winning the argument.

"Congress . . . shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis[.]" ~1 U.S.C. 1, selectively quoted for accuracy.

#6 tennyson

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Posted 17 November 2003 - 11:38 PM

I can name my senators but then there are only two.
"Only an idiot would fight a war on two fronts. Only the heir to the throne of the Kingdom of Idiots would fight a war on twelve fronts."

— Londo, "Ceremonies of Light and Dark" Babylon-5


#7 QueenTiye

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 12:20 AM

I don't know enough about these matters - but the circumstantial evidence is certainly there.

Jesse Ventura getting elected is a case in point.  Arnold is not the only celebrity who's ever been elected to an important political office without having spent a day in politics.  Party officials don't latch on like leeches to these high profile types for no good reason - they do it because they can put their platforms in celebrity mouths.  It isn't significantly different than having celebrity spokespersons for ad campaigns.  And - it isn't even much riskier.  Arnold is surrounded by a team of competent people who can make sure the government functions while Arnold either grows into his role, or simply gets tired of his new toy.

That said - I think that Arnold had some other things going for him - a constituency determined to oust its existing governor - a race too crowded to make anyone but a celebrity a winner - and a marriage to a Kennedy (giving him an air of "belonging" to a political set whether he does or not).  AND - he's had one quasi-political role - as ambassador of something or another I think... giving him further opportunity outside of his marital connections to rub elbows with political types.  And finally - he is elected in a state that has a rather HIGH percentage of people in his profession - who are less likely to suppose that an actor can't have the brains to be governor, and who may even have some hope that electing an actor will bode favorably for their industry.

QT

Een Draght Mackt Maght


#8 Bad Wolf

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 02:13 AM

Quote

That said - I think that Arnold had some other things going for him

Like the backing of the Kennedy family.  Like the fact that he's socially liberal.  Like his personal charm.  Like (as QT points out), the benefit of a political situation CRYING for a change.

Let's put it like this.  I don't think just *any* actor could have pulled this off.

Lil
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#9 tennyson

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 09:10 AM

Yes, and there were plenty of candidates who were also actors from Gary Coleman to people I'd never heard of.
"Only an idiot would fight a war on two fronts. Only the heir to the throne of the Kingdom of Idiots would fight a war on twelve fronts."

— Londo, "Ceremonies of Light and Dark" Babylon-5


#10 Guest-2112st-Guest

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 10:24 AM

tennyson, on Nov 18 2003, 02:10 PM, said:

Yes, and there were plenty of candidates who were also actors from Gary Coleman to people I'd never heard of.

Gary Coleman?? That's a laugh!  :lol:  When's the last time he was popular?

:rolleyes:

Edited by Vapor Trails, 18 November 2003 - 10:36 AM.


#11 Guest-2112st-Guest

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 10:26 AM

Javert Rovinski, on Nov 18 2003, 03:02 AM, said:

Delvo-- I'm not asserting any positive theory to explain Arnold's victory. I'm just sick of people making the assertion without any evidence.
Take some NyQuil.

:p

:hehe:

#12 Guest-2112st-Guest

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 10:38 AM

Una Salus Lillius, on Nov 18 2003, 07:13 AM, said:

Quote

That said - I think that Arnold had some other things going for him

Like the backing of the Kennedy family.  Like the fact that he's socially liberal.  Like his personal charm.  Like (as QT points out), the benefit of a political situation CRYING for a change.

Let's put it like this.  I don't think just *any* actor could have pulled this off.

Lil
I agree with these points. But as I said in the other thread-to think that Ahnuld's movie star status didn't play some big part in his getting elected would be INCREDIBLY naive.

That's my opinion-and one I'm NOT budging from.

:p

#13 Rhea

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 11:34 AM

Vapor Trails, on Nov 18 2003, 08:26 AM, said:

Javert Rovinski, on Nov 18 2003, 03:02 AM, said:

Delvo-- I'm not asserting any positive theory to explain Arnold's victory. I'm just sick of people making the assertion without any evidence.
Take some NyQuil.

:p

:hehe:


Rovvie, this quote is typical of what I've heard ever since he announced his candidacy:


Quote

Said June Holmes, a retired schoolteacher from Sacramento, "I think he needs more cooperation from the opposition party. But he can do it. He's the Terminator."

No, dearie, he's NOT the Terminator. And a retired schoolteacher should know better. But I've heard this rot over and over again.

Yes, a lot of people voted for him because of his Kennedy connections, or because he's a liberal Republican or because he's a self-made man. But I'm appalled at the sheer numbers of people who don't seem to know the difference between Arnold the man and the characters he plays onscreen.

It seems indicative to me of the increasing inability many people have to differentiate between an actor and that person's roles.
The future is better than the past. Despite the crepehangers, romanticists, and anti-intellectuals, the world steadily grows better because the human mind, applying itself to environment, makes it better. With hands...with tools...with horse sense and science and engineering.
- Robert A. Heinlein

When I don’t understand, I have an unbearable itch to know why. - RAH


Everything is theoretically impossible, until it is done. One could write a history of science in reverse by assembling the solemn pronouncements of highest authority about what could not be done and could never happen.  - RAH

#14 Guest-2112st-Guest

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 01:17 PM

Rhea, on Nov 18 2003, 04:34 PM, said:

Vapor Trails, on Nov 18 2003, 08:26 AM, said:

Javert Rovinski, on Nov 18 2003, 03:02 AM, said:

Delvo-- I'm not asserting any positive theory to explain Arnold's victory. I'm just sick of people making the assertion without any evidence.
Take some NyQuil.

:p

:hehe:


Rovvie, this quote is typical of what I've heard ever since he announced his candidacy:


Quote

Said June Holmes, a retired schoolteacher from Sacramento, "I think he needs more cooperation from the opposition party. But he can do it. He's the Terminator."

No, dearie, he's NOT the Terminator. And a retired schoolteacher should know better. But I've heard this rot over and over again.

Yes, a lot of people voted for him because of his Kennedy connections, or because he's a liberal Republican or because he's a self-made man. But I'm appalled at the sheer numbers of people who don't seem to know the difference between Arnold the man and the characters he plays onscreen.

It seems indicative to me of the increasing inability many people have to differentiate between an actor and that person's roles.
Heya Rhea. :)

IIRC, someone made a similar argument on the other thread, and Rov dismissed it as spin by the news organization reporting the claim.

:eh:

Edited by Vapor Trails, 18 November 2003 - 01:17 PM.


#15 Guest-2112st-Guest

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 01:20 PM

Rhea,

Found it. Here's what Rov said:

Quote

Rhea-- But the media often stages interviews to get the results they want. They'll interview a hundred people; if five say what they want to say, they'll keep them around and then reinterview them 'live'.

:eh:

#16 QueenTiye

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 01:26 PM

Vapor Trails, on Nov 18 2003, 01:20 PM, said:

Rhea,

Found it. Here's what Rov said:

Quote

Rhea-- But the media often stages interviews to get the results they want. They'll interview a hundred people; if five say what they want to say, they'll keep them around and then reinterview them 'live'.

:eh:
They also quote people out of context.  How does anyone know that the "dearie" quoted here wasn't making a little "ha-ha?" But the soundbite fits better with the whole "Governator" theme that is selling news media right now.

QT

Een Draght Mackt Maght


#17 Rhea

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 03:17 PM

QueenTiye, on Nov 18 2003, 11:26 AM, said:

Vapor Trails, on Nov 18 2003, 01:20 PM, said:

Rhea,

Found it. Here's what Rov said:

Quote

Rhea-- But the media often stages interviews to get the results they want. They'll interview a hundred people; if five say what they want to say, they'll keep them around and then reinterview them 'live'.

:eh:
They also quote people out of context.  How does anyone know that the "dearie" quoted here wasn't making a little "ha-ha?" But the soundbite fits better with the whole "Governator" theme that is selling news media right now.

QT
I'm not so much going by the quotes in the media as much as the crap I overhear in the mornings at the coffee shop. It's really appalling sometimes, the choices people make based on no information whatever.

I have no reason to disbelieve the retired schoolteacher's comment, because I've heard it echoed too many time by people who were absolutely *not* *kidding.*  :eek2:
The future is better than the past. Despite the crepehangers, romanticists, and anti-intellectuals, the world steadily grows better because the human mind, applying itself to environment, makes it better. With hands...with tools...with horse sense and science and engineering.
- Robert A. Heinlein

When I don’t understand, I have an unbearable itch to know why. - RAH


Everything is theoretically impossible, until it is done. One could write a history of science in reverse by assembling the solemn pronouncements of highest authority about what could not be done and could never happen.  - RAH

#18 Guest-2112st-Guest

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 06:37 PM

Rhea, on Nov 18 2003, 08:17 PM, said:

QueenTiye, on Nov 18 2003, 11:26 AM, said:

Vapor Trails, on Nov 18 2003, 01:20 PM, said:

Rhea,

Found it. Here's what Rov said:

Quote

Rhea-- But the media often stages interviews to get the results they want. They'll interview a hundred people; if five say what they want to say, they'll keep them around and then reinterview them 'live'.

:eh:
They also quote people out of context.  How does anyone know that the "dearie" quoted here wasn't making a little "ha-ha?" But the soundbite fits better with the whole "Governator" theme that is selling news media right now.

QT
I'm not so much going by the quotes in the media as much as the crap I overhear in the mornings at the coffee shop. It's really appalling sometimes, the choices people make based on no information whatever.

I have no reason to disbelieve the retired schoolteacher's comment, because I've heard it echoed too many time by people who were absolutely *not* *kidding.*  :eek2:
Well, this seems to support my argument.

Hey Rov-you get to buy me and Rhea lunch. :p

:hehe:

#19 Kosh

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 07:07 PM

tennyson, on Nov 18 2003, 12:38 AM, said:

I can name my senators but then there are only two.
One lives at "The Rocks", the other is older then some rocks.
Can't Touch This!!

#20 Rhea

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Posted 18 November 2003 - 07:10 PM

Kosh, on Nov 18 2003, 05:07 PM, said:

tennyson, on Nov 18 2003, 12:38 AM, said:

I can name my senators but then there are only two.
One lives at "The Rocks", the other is older then some rocks.
ROTFLOL!  :D
The future is better than the past. Despite the crepehangers, romanticists, and anti-intellectuals, the world steadily grows better because the human mind, applying itself to environment, makes it better. With hands...with tools...with horse sense and science and engineering.
- Robert A. Heinlein

When I don’t understand, I have an unbearable itch to know why. - RAH


Everything is theoretically impossible, until it is done. One could write a history of science in reverse by assembling the solemn pronouncements of highest authority about what could not be done and could never happen.  - RAH



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